5/22 - Tuesday Bases

[E.T.G.]

75-55-3 +$3,609.08

Monday: 1-1 -$110

Don't have much to say about Monday except I have a real confidence problem right now. I left Texas and CSox off my card because I am talking my self out of picks. I ended up choosing not to play the Giants because I saw the scores of the WSox and Texas games and I figured I missed out on 2 winners already, don't even bother, I'd rather be down $110 on Monday than $660. Just want to give a big Fuck You to the Reds and Bronson Arroyo, anyone who had Nationals ML, I wish you hit it. All I can do is keep chugging along after 7 straight losing days.

Tuesday:

Phillies -140 / Marlins +130: This line was at -148 when I copied it down earlier in the day. Back on 4/8 Olsen beat the Phillies going 5ip, 4h, 3er, 4bb, 3k. Olsen is however 2-4 w/ 5.51era in 32ip allowing 39h, 17bb, and 24k in his career vs. Phillies. Batters are hitting .291 overall off him and he has his struggles with LH batters posting a 6.92era in 13ip and they are hitting .296 off him. At home Olsen is 1-1 w/ 4.38era in 24.2ip. I am sure everyone knows about Hamels by now. Hamels has gone atleast 7ip in his last 4 starts. He is 6-1 overall and the Phillies are 6-3 when he takes the mound. Hamels is 3-0 in his last 3 games posting a 2.86era and 1.00 Whip. In his career he is 2-1 w/ 3.00era in 18ip allowing 18h, 10bb, and 20k vs. the Marlins. Neither team hits LH pitching well at all. The thing about the Marlins is that they are a young undiscipline team. When I watch Shields over the wkend, he really carved them up because they are almost all first pitch swingers. Hamels will throw them curveballs/changes all day and they will be off balance the whole game imo. Phillies have lost 4/6 on the road and dropped 2/3 to the Marlins last road trip there in early April. Noteable Marlin bats vs. Hamels: Cabrera (.800 in 5ab), Ramirez (.500 in 10ab), Uggla (.222 in 9ab).. Phillies bats vs. Olsen: Burrell (.214 in 14ab), Rollins (.188 in 16ab), Utley (.125 in 16ab), Victorino (.200 in 10ab).. Lean to the Phillies.

Mets -128 / Braves +118: Jorge Sosa will take the mound for the Mets and is 3-0 w/ 2.25era in 20ip giving up 9h, 8bb, 12k. Interesting note is that he was a part of the Braves organization last yr for a little bit of time. Atlanta has won 4/6 this yr in the series. Opposing Sosa will be Kyle Davies who is 1-2 w/ 5.17era on the yr and 1-1 w/ 3.44era, 6bb, and 10k in his last 3 games. Davies faced the Mets once this yr and recieved a ND after going 6.2ip posting a 2.7era, allowing 4h, 8k, and 3bb. On the yr however Davies has almost a 1-1 K:BB ratio. Sosa also puts people on base with walks and I can't stand that. Batters overall are hitting Sosa at a scary .132 and he is 1-0 in the road in 1 start, limited sample.Sosa has given up 5er this yr, all to LH batters who are hitting Sosa at .161 on the yr.. Davies at home is 0-0 in 3games w/ 4.82era and batters are hitting just .225 vs him at home and .262 overall. Davies struggles with RH batters where he posts a 7.06era and has allowed 14bb to 10k where vs. LH batters he posts a 2.70era and has 8bb to 17k. I have a lean to the Mets because this is a big series and I think the Mets are a better team than the Braves. The Braves lead the series right now but local papers are really hyping this trip up for the Mets.


Bout to go out for a little bit to clear my head if you know what I mean. Back later breaking down more games.. I will have a winning day sooner or later.

 

[Ray]

Leaning toward Mets

 

[JRose5]

hang in there. always enjoy your writeups. gl tomorrow.

 

[Terpman92]

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[Yanks27Sox9]

the question regarding those two games for me is this...

will the Fish &/or Bravos be in their opponent's head. not necessarily the case now...but there have been times where the Fish were in Philly's head, and many times the Bravos have been in the Mutt's heads.

could be two decent dogs...but need to look deeper.

 

[E.T.G.]

Hamels -133.. Keep dropping

Reds/Pirates Over 9 +100: Over is 9-3 in Pitt last 12 road games.
St Louie offense has shown some life in the last week. Wainright lasted 2.2 last start and has not been effective this yr. 42ip, 62hits.

"Manager Tony La Russa and RHP Adam Wainwright had a pre-game meeting Friday to establish that Wainwright's awful game on Tuesday in Los Angeles was not a result of arm trouble. Wainwright assured La Russa that that was not the reason. La Russa said, "I said to him, 'Let's get this thing straight. You're a high-profile guy. If you struggle, there are going to be questions why you're struggling.' "

It was reported that Wainwright has been pitching with some elbow tendinitis earlier in the season. Hopefully he's OK, but it's a situation worth monitoring. " -cbssportsline

Duke on the road: 1-2, 5.32era, 22ip, 31hits..Batters hitting .356.

Factor in bullpens and this game should go over or atleast push.


Brewers -109: This line is dropping as well, was -117. LAD can't lose 5 in a row? If Sheets gives me the same outting he has pitched the last 4 games I like my chances. He is the Ace of the staff so that is an advantage. He came up big for me last time and I think he might be a Dog by tomorrow. Brewers hit Wolf once already this yr over 6inning for 4runs and 7hits. Brewers play hard every night because they are young so win tonight could be a boost of confidence.

Giants +106: Might see Oswalt as a dog to the rook tomorrow. Last outting helped my fantasy team, Astros still seem to not be hitting and 98mph of fastballs might not help.

WhiteSox -141: Danks pitched real well against the Yanks when I watched him. WSOX offense might becoming alive and thats a big plus because Oakland can't hit worth a shit. Chad Lewis? He pitched 3inning in 2006 and hasn't pitched since 2004 before that. I don't know a damn thing about him but I am not backing him on the road in his first start.

Indians -1.5 -110: I don't only back them when CC pitches. Carmona can beat Johan twice but he can't be Odalis Perez? Just please don't let Gonzalez pitch.

 

[E.T.G.]

the question regarding those two games for me is this...

will the Fish &/or Bravos be in their opponent's head. not necessarily the case now...but there have been times where the Fish were in Philly's head, and many times the Bravos have been in the Mutt's heads.

could be two decent dogs...but need to look deeper.

I think the Mutts are pumped up for the game but how much do you trust Jorge Sosa. We haven't seen much of him this yr.

Hamels might be hitting his stride and might be hot right now, give me 7inning of 2run baseball and I won't complain. With a dropping line too he might be like -127 soon. This line opened around -148. I cant pass that price up on a stud pitcher. Marlin hitters are so undiscipline, he has to stay away from Hanley and Cabrera.

 

[Satyr]

Good luck tonight Green. I'll sort my thoughts out then post later, look what happened when I decide to post early thoughts first, then picks later I nailed my initial leans but got ripped on my play (21 HITS!!!!? and it stays under?!).

Anyways, a lot of nice pitching duels tonight and I hope we'll get back on track.


:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Good luck tonight Green. I'll sort my thoughts out then post later, look what happened when I decide to post early thoughts first, then picks later I nailed my initial leans but got ripped on my play (21 HITS!!!!? and it stays under?!).

Anyways, a lot of nice pitching duels tonight and I hope we'll get back on track.


:cheers:

I feel you, I like pretty much every winning side tonight except the one that I played. Thinkin bout playing less money more games 2morrow because I really do like a lot of these sides.

 

[HUNT]

I like the white sox...

keep your head up ETG

 

[E.T.G.]

I'm done overthinking this shit. There has been a change of style since what I'm doing aint working. Will rehit 2mrrow, also look at Pitt Over, Phillies & Indian RL.


Mets $372
Brewers $327 to Win $300
Giants $300 to Win $316
WSox $423 to Win $300

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck ETG

 

[Jack]

4/22:smiley_acbe:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

BOL, ETG

with ya on SF. i ended up on ATL too. couldn't go against Hamels though, so i layed off that one.

 

[Troutman]

GL..Turn it around

 

[E.T.G.]

Guys thanks for the kind words..


Now I know this looks like a drastic approach but I want to say to everyone, I am not chasing the losses. I feel pretty confident today in my approach and what I am doing..I like these games a lot and I am not talking myself out of any of these games.

Phillies: $652 to Win $500: Fish have won 3 in a row but I am telling you guys that they are undiscipline hitters and first pitch swingers. Hamels will be fine for 7 as long as he doesnt get hurt by Hanley or Cabrera. Olsen beat the Phillies in the beginning of the yr but I have bet Olsen a few times and what you are going to get is 5-6innings of pitching and 3-4 innings of bullpen work. Olsen has given up 10hits in 3 different games this yr, he doesn't have that dominant stuff and the ball willl be put in play today. Give me the Ace of the Phillies for a cheap price and I will risk in on the road for a team looking to avenge a previous loss.
Mets: $650 to Win $530.25: I don't like Kyle Davies and this series is really big for the Mets, atleast thats how the Star Ledger (NJ Paper) puts it. Jorge Sosa is heading back to ATL to face a team that got rid of him. This yr he has been dominant and maybe he is due to get lit up but I like the Mets in this situation since it appears that they are taking this series very seriously. Sosa has motivation returning to ATL but that didn't work out last time I backed Zito heading to Oakland. Both offense can go off but Davies problems with RH batters where he posts a 7.06era and has allowed 14bb to 10k is reason for concern here (Reyes Switch Hits, Beltran SH, Wright, LoDuca, Easley) all can hit RH. The Mets do a good job of switching the order up so its R/L/R/L ..Bullpen edge goes to the Mets here as well. Not sure if people are scared because they saw the Rook from the Yanks take down the Mets.
Brewers: $650 to Win $616.19: Is the thought here that the Brewers are no good away from home and can't hit LHP away from their stadium? LAD can't lose 5 games in a row? If I am in the minority here than so be it, give me the Ace of the Brewers up against Wolf and a slumping LAD offense and I have to take a shot here..People might look at Sheets ERA and be scared away but look at what he has done the last 4 games. STL: W-6ip,6h, 2er, 1bb, 3k and they have a good history vs him. Pitt: ND-6.1ip,6h, 2er, 3bb, 5k. @NYM: W-6ip, 4h, 3er, 2bb, 5k. @PHI: W-7.2ip, 5h, 2er, 1bb, 8k. He has gone on the road his last 2 starts and faced good offenses and come up big for his team. I am asking Sheets to give me 6-7ip of 2run baseball today and I will glady take my chances. Brewers are a young team but that win last night can be a huge confidence booster for a team who didn't have a good road trip last time out. Now they send their Ace to the hill to take 2/3 from the LAD.
Giants: $504 to Win $526.08: The under might be a better play in this game or first team who gets 2 runs wins but Tiny Tim struck out 10 over 7innings last week while walking 1 vs the Astros. The game before that he went 7 and allowed 2er while striking out 6 and walking 1 vs. Colorodo, both on the road. Many people might just remember his first game vs the Phillies where he didn't do so hot but I attribute that to first start jitters on National TV and he was facing a fairly strong lineup. Regardless, I will take my shot on Tiny Tim here. Think about Johan vs. Carmona. Most couldn't believe how cheap Johan was, including myself, but there is more to baseball than a starting pitcher and if your team doesn't score you any runs than you don't have that good of a chance of winning. Johan pitched great, prob his top game of the yr and was nearly unhittable but 2 swings of the bat changed the outcome of the game. Carmona has beaten Johan twice, Tiny Tim can beat Oswalt twice too.
WSox: $650 to Win $464.49: Line dropping because people don't want to back the rook? Well there is no way I could back Colby Lewis, a guy who is making his first road start this yr, pitched 3innings in 06' and hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2004. Lewis is 12-13 with a 6.76 ERA in 46 major league games, 33 starts. WSox are about to get hot as well and the offense is playing a lot better. Danks is 2-4 w/ a 4.10era but is getting better every start. Oakland bullpen troubles + Oakland offense + AAA pitcher makes his debut for the seaosn on the road + Surging WSox team = WSox play

I am still looking at the Over in the Cards game for +100. The way I see it, Wainwright has been shit and the rumors about his arm trouble are probably true, after a bad start tonight don't be surprised to see him hit the D/L. Duke's numbers on the road are not so good. A number of 9 can be hit by the 5th inning in this type of game. I figure Wainwright in for 4-5ip, 5er and Duke for 5-6ip, 3-4er. Factor in bullpens and another 3-4 innings of baseball and this game goes over. Haven't looked at weather/ump and various other shit yet.

Its possible I get my ass handed to me today but its been a 7days since I've won now and I think I have come full circle. I like todays games, I really do and I'm sticking to my guns here.

 

[E.T.G.]

I just want to point out the differences in the line changes in these games. Either some people out there with a lot of money have a crystal ball or I am getting suckered in, I can't pinpoint what the hell is going on but I am not letting it change the way I feel about the games today..

When I copied the BJ lines around 2-3yesterday he is what I had..

Phillies -148...Now -125
Mets -132...Now -121
Brewers -117...Now -105, can be got for + money some places
Giants +116...Now +102
WSox -150...Now -135

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL today green, that's definitely a rough stint there but today's plays look solid as can be. Sheets @ this price, it's gotta be one of the strangest things and of course I missed the price on Lincecum, still can get +106 though

 

[E.T.G.]

GL today green, that's definitely a rough stint there but today's plays look solid as can be. Sheets @ this price, it's gotta be one of the strangest things and of course I missed the price on Lincecum, still can get +106 though

Thats how I feel man. Yesterday I went 1-1-$110 but it was a good day for me in the fact that the sides in my writeups, everyone of them were the winning side minus that fuken Reds RL. It did a lot for my confidence today. If I go down in flames today than so be it but if I had these games tomorrow at these prices, I would play them again.

I think people think the Brewers can't win on the road after that last road trip they had and the Dodgers can't lose 5 straight games and thats why they are hammering the LAD. A lot of people had the Dodgers yesterday and could be trying to chase that series tonight. I personally think they are slumping, think the Brewers playing with confidence is dangerous and I am getting the Ace of the Staff who has gone out last 2 outting on the road and beaten NYM and Philly at a very reasonable price today is too much for me to pass up.

 

[jimbo1227]

alright playa, u got alot of loot ridin today and i wanna see a f*ckin sweep. soon, you'll have so much cash you'll have strippers rollin your blunts. good lookin on that sox pick. im bout to pound the piss out of it

 

[E.T.G.]

alright playa, u got alot of loot ridin today and i wanna see a f*ckin sweep. soon, you'll have so much cash you'll have strippers rollin your blunts.

Maybe strippers like the one getting bent over in your pic..damn shes nice..

Really man, I just feel good about today..I am done reading about these games, I can't think about them anymore in the fact I have covered every thing there is to cover about these games on my piece of notebook paper.. I am about to workout and finish moving my shit back into my parent's house but I would love to see a sweep as well but 4-1 would make me do backflips right now.

 

[Peldas]

Good Luck :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks and good luck to you..

Cards/Pirates over 8.5 -120: Going to have to think about this one for a little bit but got 3 hours until game time. This number is low imo for no reason.

Over is 9-3 in PIT last 12 road games.
No game these two have played this yr has gone over 8.5

Wainwright: 0-1, 2.2ip, 7h, 8er, 4bb last start....2-1, 14.2ip, 6.75era, 23hits, 6bb, 5k last 3 starts...0-1, 4.26, 12.2ip, 15h, 7bb, 8k this yr vs. Pitt.....Has thrown 44ip this yr and allowed 62hits.


Duke: Guys are hitting .340 overall off him and .356 when he is on the road. On the road he is 1-2, 5.32era, 22ip, 31h, 3bb, 6k. In career he is 2-1, 3.72era, 29ip, 34h, 8bb, 13k vs Cards. Has pitched 50innings this yr and allowed 69hits.


Add in this report:

"Manager Tony La Russa and RHP Adam Wainwright had a pre-game meeting Friday to establish that Wainwright's awful game on Tuesday in Los Angeles was not a result of arm trouble. Wainwright assured La Russa that that was not the reason. La Russa said, "I said to him, 'Let's get this thing straight. You're a high-profile guy. If you struggle, there are going to be questions why you're struggling.' "

It was reported that Wainwright has been pitching with some elbow tendinitis earlier in the season. Hopefully he's OK, but it's a situation worth monitoring. " -cbssportsline

Weather is blowing 12mph to center according to the weather thread.

Don't have any ump info.

I see the game going with Wainwright going 4-5ip and giving up 4-5runs. I think Duke can go 5-6 and give up 3runs. In this situation if the game is close, 4-4 tie puts the game over, didn't work out for me last time but much worse pitchers this time. Add in bullpens for 7innings combined between both teams and the amount of runs has to go up.

 

[B.A.R.]

on Brewers and Gints as well...

Great informative thread as always

 

[TheShadyNFL]

in regards to sosa as a mets fan also betting on him tonight

from what I've seen from him has looked great. You mentioned pitching for the braves last year, well 2 years ago he was great for them going 13-3 w/ an era lees than 3.0. I bet on him quite a few of those games, then last year for ATL something happened and he was getting rocked, homer after homer. I dont know what he worked on in the meantime but I hope it was good and stays good tonight.

 

[STEED]

best of luck bro

 

[E.T.G.]

in regards to sosa as a mets fan also betting on him tonight

from what I've seen from him has looked great. You mentioned pitching for the braves last year, well 2 years ago he was great for them going 13-3 w/ an era lees than 3.0. I bet on him quite a few of those games, then last year for ATL something happened and he was getting rocked, homer after homer. I dont know what he worked on in the meantime but I hope it was good and stays good tonight.

sounds good bro..

local paper says he got himself in top physical shape and went bak to DR to perfect his technique

gl 2nite

 

[reNew Orleans]

posted my opinion on the cards/pirates total in my thread. seems like you've already touched up on it though.

 

[tru]

4/22:smiley_acbe:

haha jus seen that also, gonna edit tha date for ya green

 

[Ale10]

GL green

 

[E.T.G.]

haha jus seen that also, gonna edit tha date for ya green

hah, funny, thanks..

ya i wish it was april, i was winning back then

good luck to every1 tonight:cheers:

 

[daytonavol]

Liking the late games, White Sox are killing, pulling for the Injuns to come thru.