5/21: Monday Bases - Getting an early start on getting MY money BACK

[E.T.G.]

74-54-3 +$3,719.08

This was a very expensive week of gambling for me. WK = 11-15 -$3,349.09

At first glance this card blows. At second glance, it fuken sucks a lot. I just can't keep playing 3-4 games a day when I am getting ass pounded. I took some extra time out to dig through these games and try to find a winning side for an affordable price. I am pretty disappointed right now but its nothing I can't fix. I like to think I am a better capper than the losing capper I am right now and I just keep telling myself I am in a funk. This isn't the first time it has happened this yr and it won't be the last. The only positive I have to say about this is the last time I had a big losing week, I lost $1500 and I followed it up with a 2 week run of 5k so hopefully something like that will happen although I will take a winning Monday as a start. I have however learned a lot this week and hopefully I can apply it to winning. My losing plays are rushed, they are not researched enough, they are not thought through completely... I am just trying to take a clear mind into this week although it is tough.

Indians -1.5 -120: This is a hefty price for the RL but the ML isn't even close to being affordable. Sabathia has pitched six innings or more in all nine of his starts, and seven innings in six of his nine starts. He hit a little stretch where he wasn't that effective, mostly due to one poor inning. The Indians are 8-1 when Sabathia takes the mound and he is 6-1 on the yr..Last start he went 8 while giving up 5hits and 1run. The Indians are also 16-4 at home.

Sabathia in his career is 4-3 w/ 3.03era in 10g vs. the Mariners. Mariner hitters vs. Sabathia: Beltre (.000 in 8ab), Bloomquist (.316 in 19ab), Guillen (.222 in 9ab), Ibanez (.278 in 36ab), Suzuki (.429 in 35ab).

Baek is a pitcher who many in baseball just havent seen enough of. He was out dueled by Lackey but didn't pitch bad by any means in his last start, just had a rough first inning. He does however have is struggles with LH batters:

14.1ip, 6.91era, 17h, 11er

Cleveland LH batters: Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez Switch hits, Dellucci, Nixon

Baek also has a 6.88era in 17ip on the road vs. a 2.84 in 12.2ip at home.

How this game has to go for a win: Cleveland and their LH hitters like Sizemore, Hafner, and Martinez have to get to Baek early in the game and the Indians can't let him settle down on the road. Sabathia has to avoid the big inning, they can chip away with 1 in the 3rd and 1 in the 6th but they can't be getting a 5 run inning in the 4th. Really I see the Indians winning 7-3 but who knows at this point. Better SP + Better Lineup + Homefield Advantage + Inexperienced pitcher on the road = Win by 2 or more... I hope so!

WhiteSox -118: First let me start by saying that the WSox are playing much better ball right now than they were previously playing as they are winners of 7 of their last 11 games. Contreras is a bit of an x-factor in this game. In his last 3 starts he has a 1.25era but is 1-2 and the WSox are 1-2 as a team because there hasn't been any run support to back him up. Is he due for an explosion or is he going to keep throwing the way he has been? Previous meeting this yr, Contreras went 6ip giving up 1 run in a win over the A's. Contreras does however put men on base too often with walks and can be a bit erratic. At home this yr Contreras is 1-2 w/ 7.71era in 14.1ip. These numbers are skewed because of opening day when he went 1ip w/ 7er vs. the Indians. Since that game he has had 1 other breakdown, a 7ip -5er perfromance vs. Detroit. Those are 2 pretty potent lineups as well so it puts me at ease a little more.

Blanton has been a workhorse for the A's going atleast 7ip in his last 5 starts this yr. He has been consistent in the fact that he has given up atleast 2er in every start this yr except his 2nd of the yr. Blanton is 3-0 on the road this yr but has a 3.98era in 31.2ip vs. a 2.64era in 30.2ip at home where he is 1-1. Opponents bat .272 vs. Blanton on the road vs. .194 at home.

The WSox will welcome Thome back to the lineup so that adds a needed bat to the order.

It was possible that Duchscherer could be cleared to pitch on Sunday but didn't so it is still unknown whether he will be good to go for the WSox. Without Duchscherer, the A's have no one worth a shot of confidence in the bullpen and that could and most likely will come back to haunt them in a close game as it did once more vs. the Giants on Sunday.

 

[E.T.G.]

btw, I am now 4-13 on Sunday, that is just mind numbing. How can I be so bad on a certain day of the wk? Chasing!

With a small card it is a little easier to look at these games..

Nationals +215 / Reds -235/ -1.5 -120: The ML aint worth it. The RL can't be trusted with the Reds bullpen and the Nationals late inning come backs. Nationals could be without another player, Church who got hurt today so another bat gone from the lineup. Speigner was the reliever who made his first start vs. the Braves if I remember correctly. Nationals just played 10games at home and this is first time on the road in a while. I think I will just stay far far far away from this one even though part of me wants to fade the Nats on the road and take a shot on the RL.

Rockies +167 / DBacks -177: Webb is now 0-3 vs. the Rockies this yr giving up 5er in every start. He has lost twice on the road and 1 time at home to the Rockies. This being his 4th time vs a team he is 0-3 against is a lot to pay imo. Cook was the opposing pitcher vs. Web in 2 of the 3 losses. Do you want to pay -177 because you don't believe Webb can lose 4 times in 1.5months to the Rockies or do you want to take a shot with a dog vs. Webb knowing you have to go against a pretty good pitcher. Cook however is 3-0 in his last 3 but sports a 5.71era in those games. One should also consider the price in this game. @ Colo on 4/2 Webb -115, home on 4/13 Webb -179, @ Colo on 5/16 Webb -127, now home on 5/21 Webb -177.

Brewers -105 / Dodgers -105 / Over 8.5: Tomko was crushed last outting but is 7-1 in his career vs. Brewers. Dodgers are losers of 3 straight games now since the Angels showed them who owns LA. Neither pitcher has impressed lately but Suppan has been better over the span at 1-2 w/ 4.82era vs. 1-2 w/ 9.88era. Suppan has been hit for 4er in each of his last 2 starts. Brewers lead series 2-1 this yr and Suppan pitched the only game LA won. Brewers are 2-6 in last 8 games. Tough to say who you go with here at a pickem because of how the two pitchers have been lately. I would say the over is the stronger lean for me out of all of them. LAD are 13-8 at home and Brewers are 10-10 on the road. Opposing batters are hitting Suppan at .286 on the yr vs. Tomko at .288 overall and .333 at home in 15ip.

Astros +132 / Giants -142: This is a rematch of last wk's game where Noah pitched 8inning giving up 2er vs. the Stros and got the loss to Sampson who went 6ip giving up 1er. Lowry in his career is 3-1 w/ 1.45era in 31ip vs. the Stros. For Lowry it was the seventh time in his first eight starts that he worked into at least the seventh inning. Lowry has lost his last two starts after winning his previous four. Last game was the first time that the Giants ever saw Sampson. Sampson on the road is 2-2 w/ 5.23era in 20ip vs. 2-1 w/ 2.0era at home. At home Lowry is 3-1 w/ 2.45era in 25.2ip. Lean to the Giants here, would need a lineup and this line to move down because it is near the limit I would consider paying. This is the 2nd highest line on Lowry this yr, the other was -144 at home vs. Colorodo. Last start Lowry was at -102 vs the Stros on the road.

Twins -105 / Rangers -105 / Over 10: The first thing that comes to my mind in this game and that small park is over. Silva and Padilla have been shit as of late. Silva on the road is 2-2 w/ 4.63 era vs Padilla at home who is 1-2 w/ 3.00era in 21ip. Opposing batters are hitting Padilla at .285 overall but just .230 at home. Silva is being hit at .286 overall and .319 on the road. Silva has his troubles with LH batters where he is being hit for a 4.57era in 21ip, allowing 28hits, and LH batters are hitting .315 vs him. Silva vs. RH hitters is 2.73era and they are only hitting him at .262. Padilla is 1-6 as a starter and his lone win has come at home. Twins just won a few games on their road trip to face the Brewers where they took 2/3 but they struggle on offense. I now lean to the Rangers at PK because if you are going to back Padilla you only take the shot at home. I would not pay much more for this guy though..


BoSox +115 / Yanks -125: I don't have to cap this game.. I know who is going to win, I just can't bet it! :wacka wacka: Yankees win, the Yankees WIN!

 

[Troutman]

I like the Colorado Break down...

 

[reNew Orleans]

the Rockies Loooooooove webb. might be on the rockies or over in that game

 

[brewer]

im looking at dodgers, houston, and chisox

 

[E.T.G.]

im looking at dodgers, houston, and chisox

Why Houston?

 

[E.T.G.]

the Rockies Loooooooove webb. might be on the rockies or over in that game

I can't go near Webb with a 10 foot pole. Not for -177, no can do

 

[E.T.G.]

Updated Line movements:

DBacks -175 - I think tonight this gets bet down, tomorrow it gets bet back up with a lot of people on Webb
Dodgers -111 - Expected this to move this way and think it will keep going up.
Giants -134 - Happy this is coming down, I want to see it near -128 or so.
Yankees -140 - This jumped up quick and by tomorrow prob won't have any value.
Texas -107 - limited movement prob doesn't move much at all
WhiteSox -123 - Think there will be a decent amount of people on WSox tomorrow
Indian RL -115 - Hope Seattle gets some support so the RL falls to -110, I think getting + is out of the question

 

[reNew Orleans]

white sox interesting game

- contreas has some bad #'s against the A's, don't know when those games were besides the one game he pitched at oakland this year that you listed. if they weren't within the last couple years I could care less about them. Blanton only 1 start vs the White Sox so that's not very viable for information but he's been pitching well lately. Thome back, forgot to factor that in but you said it so, thank you lol. I guess we will see where the line goes. But idk if i could back the White Sox if it's past -130. I lean A's but that's basically backing up Blanton.

 

[STEED]

good luck Green. GO TRIBE

 

[Jack]

Great writeups ETG, things will turn around for ya:cheers:

 

[Satyr]

Excellent writeups. Sorry to hear about your losing week, I'll keep my fingers crossed you do the job this week, actually I'm sure you're going to bounce back. Just too much quality capping for that not to happen.

I like the White Sox reasoning, I'm actually lurking in the corner waiting for this team to start waking up so I can pound them and pound them hard, they've been a real moneymaker in previous seasons, if you know when to back them. I'm thinking this is a nice spot to do it.
I'm not the biggest fan of the A's, but they're a solid bunch and Blanton looks good so far this year as well, but I'm thinking Contreras will show his dominant stuff and we'll see a strong game by the White Sox here.
I'm a bit surprised by the price as well, I expected something in the range of 1.62-1.75, instead we have 1.81, AND Jim Thome is returning, AND they're finally playing up (forget this Cubs series loss), so I would expect them to take this one and will probably take them.


Cleveland, you make a strong case on them as well. Mariners are my favorite team so I've been looking out for them, Baek actually surprised me of how confident he can be at times and how solid his pitching can be on a consistent note, but I have a hard time seeing him outduel Sabathia.
You make a GREAT case about lefties.
Believe it or not but I did make a small note when I watched him "fade him on the road against a leftie lineup" and this qualifies under that one so I like that one as well.
However this is more than pricy, actually these M's have been playing some solid baseball lately and I just hope they won't be in the groove tonight, even though they don't make a compelling bet against Sabathia, the line already reflects EVERYTHING that goes in our favor. So I agree here, it's either RL or nothing. I might even spice things a bit and try the adjusted -2 runline, which is a small gamble but it doesn't provide any additional risks as of losing your money compared to the -1,5 RL, it just means that in case of a 2 run win you get your money back. So it is a gamble, but the prices are SCHOCKING at times (imagine 3.11 on the Halos on Saturday with Weaver. I was disgusted and of course cashed on it ).

Anyways, I won't take any more gambles with Webb, he is an ace and a phenomenal pitcher but man oh man have these Rockies feasted off him or what? I can't go on him again, and I damn sure won't be on Colorado either.
Early lean: over 8.5 has a nice +money tag on it (2.10). But I'm thinking the oddsmakers are counting on Webb to finally shut them down so I'll probably pass.


Gotta say I leaned Texas as well, as I think their lineup is finally waking up a bit, but I can't back Padilla, not the way he's been pitching this year, he's all over the place, too prone to letdowns. Over pops to mind but the books aren't stupid, the line is 10.


Yanks v Red Sox after Interleague, featuring two hot & cold pitchers (this year these guys are totally unpredictable). PASS!

Giants with Lowr... PASS!!!!!



STRONG DODGER LEAN!
GOSH I wish this was Penny on the mound right here. I know it would be chalky situation but these guys score for Penny at home, and he does the job. And these aren't Halo bats. I can't stand these Brewer discussions any more on various boards, are they the real deal or not, blah blah blaaaaaaaah.

They are. For their division. For the rest: nah. I'm thinking Dodgers will blast them to the moon after getting swept to their city rivals. I don't think they're too shocked or disappointed though, this means more to the Halos.
But they're still going to want to get back on track and the Brewers as I said might not be a compelling bet on the road against top opposition such as the Dodgers or Mets.
Dodgers AT HOME at nearly a pick 'em. HAVE TO circle that one.


Bronson Arroyo. First of, I'll stay away from betting Nationals' games for a while, these guys ALWAYS find the way to fuck me in the ass. And it's ALWAYS Zimmerman involved. And always 8th or 9th inning. Arroyo isn't on top of my favorite pitchers, I actually like fading him, so I won't touch that one.



These are early writeups/leans, still no plays. 7 AM here, and my gf is coming in an hour to sleep for a while then go to the uni, I have to do a ton of work today as well, so I'll see you guys later.

:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Steed & Jack - Thanks, its a new week, I have a positive outlook right now..

Ok updated Leans:

Reds -1.5 -120: I said this was a game I should prob stay away from but now I kind of like it. Arroyo has faced Nationals 2 times in his career and is 1-0 in 16ip, 7h, 16k, 3bb. Church got hurt so he has a bruised forearm, depending how sore he is, he might be out of the lineup. Speigner is a RHP who was tagged hard in his first start giving up 8hits over 4innings. The Braves just failed to capitalize and put a lot more runs on the board. He is a reliever so I don't expect him to have the endurance or arm strength to go long into a game. I think 5innings if he doesn't get beat up. This is the Nationals first away game in 11 games that they have played since they just finished off a 10game home stand. Nationals are 5-15 on the road. Arroyo this yr has been solid but his W/L column doesnt show it. Arroyo over 61ip is 2-4, 2.64era, 54h, 21bb, 43k. Arroyo has allowed three earned runs or fewer in his past eight starts. If that holds up than the Reds need to score about 6 in the game to cover the RL and that is something I can see happening off Speigner.

Indians -1.5 -115: Juiced dropped on this game a little bit looking for a little more drop. Everything I have to say about this game is said above.

Rockies Over 8.5 +100: If the line gets down to 8 I will give it a deeper look, I want no part of any hook. The line is based on the assumption that Webb can't lose to the Rockies for the 4th time this season and so that is why he -177 and that is why the O/U is low. I think they want you to think that Webb is too good of a pitcher to lose to these guys again so he has to come out and pitch dominant and it might happen but history isn't on his side. Webb can't throw anything at the Rockie hitters they have never seen and the same can be said for Cook..Cook has a 3 game win streak and last outting didn't walk a batter but did hit 2 of them. Cook has only done that 1 other time and I would say its not likely to happen again. He will put some men on base. The downside to this play is if Webb is on, if Cook is on, or if both are on. Cook has better numbers on the road and posts a 1-0 w/ 2.96era, 27.1ip, 29h, 7bb, 12k and opposing batters are hitting .279. Webb has actually pitched worse at home and is 0-2, 5.14era, 21ip, 20h, 9bb, 11k, and is being hit at .253

Rangers -107: This play would be risky since Padilla is 1-6 but I think it is a lot like Horacio Ramirez the other night. His numbers were terrible but at home he is a different pitcher, Ramirez went on to pitch fine and beat Maddux. Padilla has terrible overall numbers 1-6, 5.77era, 25bb, 23k but at home he is 1-2, 3.00era, 21ip, 5bb, 10k and batters are hitting just .230. Padilla has walked 25 batters this yr but just 5 at home..The Rangers are however 1-8 when Padilla takes the mound and that is a little disturbing. This line can't rise much higher because than the risk is no longer worth it. The Twins are hit or miss, I really don't know what Twin team will show up on offense but having Mauer out helps the Rangers. Neither pitcher has enough notable history against their opponent but Teixeira and Young do hit Silva pretty good. I do like that Silva is being hit at .319 on the road because there are def some live bats in the Rangers order which is why I can feel comfortable enough if I did decide to play this game.

Giants -134: I could see why the Under would be a play here but if I had to pick a side then I have to go with the Giants. Bonds should play since the game is at night and he spent this wkend playing DH. Overall I would like to get this game at about -128 or lower so I hope some people start to back the Stros. The Stros have the series at 2-1 this yr so far but Lowry is 3-0 vs the Stros at home in his career and he beat Oswalt each time. Houston does hit LHP better than RHP and the Giants hit RHP better than LHP. Lowry is 3-1 at home this yr and 4-4 overall and his stats at home are better where he posts a 3-1 record w/ 2.45era, 25.2ip, 19k, 8bb. Batters are hitting Noah at .242 overall but just .221. If you look at Lowry's overall stats, he has a lot more walks than I like but 17 of those walks have come on the road. Sampson has a higher era on the road at 5.23 in 20ip and batters are hitting him at .318 on the road vs. .259 at home..


I eliminated the WSox and Dodgers games so far. I just don't feel comfortable with Contreras. WSox GM blowing up in the paper about the team could fire them up and Thome is returning to active duty at DH but at this moment I just don't know where I stand on the game and feel more comfortable with the games listed above. I wouldn't give Contreras a look if this line touched -130 either.

 

[Satyr]

Similar way of thinking I see. I just can't pull the trigger on Padilla and I won't risk it with Lowry, and now I see you're laying off the ChiSox, but I like them at home at this price. Thinking Contreras is better than a 3-4 pitcher.

 

[E.T.G.]

Similar way of thinking I see. I just can't pull the trigger on Padilla and I won't risk it with Lowry, and now I see you're laying off the ChiSox, but I like them at home at this price. Thinking Contreras is better than a 3-4 pitcher.

I agree I think he is better than that too and the A's don't present anything on offense that I fear but I have seen enough of Contreras in my life to not trust him much. I havent ruled this game out completely but if it was WSox -130, I won't touch it. I won't back the A's in this spot though, Blanton no doubt has been solid this yr but you might as well flip a coin when they trot out their pitchers in the 8th and 9th innings because they are Terrible, yes it deserve a capital T.. Read an article on MSNBC where the GM was all fired up calling the team out and they respond to that by winning a few games. Getting Thome back is a big help as well.. I think Contreras is better than 3-4 and I think the WSox are better than 21-19. His career numbers don't help the cause either.

 

[E.T.G.]

Wow Satyr, I missed your first post, quality shit.

I am divided on the WSox overall, last time I backed the WSox vs. Oakland, Danks blew the save. The WSox bullpen should get some flack right now too as they haven't been reliable as well, I was picking on the A's bullpen only.

I do like the Indians RL but I think I saw somewhere that the Mariners are 6-0 vs LHP? I have to look that up but that is worrysome. Baek vs. LH batters is a huge advantage to the Indians and they are real strong at home.

I don't want to touch the Dodgers game because of Tomko. I liked the Dodgers in this game/situation but man I don't trust Tomko 1 bit.

I think Arroyo has jus receieved a lot of bad luck this yr, guy is 2-4 w/ 2.64era and he just lost to the Padres after throwing a complete game. He gets no run support at all but I just can't see the Nationals on the road for the first time in 11 games throwing a middle relief guy beating Arroyo who has owned the Nationals in his 2 starts. If Church is out that is a big loss for Nationals.

I agree with the assumption on the Rockies total and quite frankly I don't really want to go near this game the more I think about it. I wouldn't consider laying -170 in this situation and if I had to pick a side give me the +160 on the Rockies with the better lineup.

Lowry is a good pitcher and I think this yr could be a turning point for him. He is a much better pitcher at home and Sampson is a worse pitcher on the road.

As far as turning shit around, I usually do pretty good following Sunday because I get raped and than do a lot more work to find winners for Monday. I will be the first to admit I didn't put a full effort in this wk and it ended up costing me a lot of money. It was stupid and cocky and a lot of other things but I am sitting here on Sunday pissed as shit so I am putting the effort in to get my dough back. I have plans to goto Atlantic City this wkend and I don't want to be going with a light pocket but another ass kicking like last wk will make me


Just want to add 1 more note about the Indian game. This is a makeup game on both teams off day so on Tuesday the Indians will head to KC and the Mariners will travel to Tampa for a series. Some quotes from the coaches:

"They know we're going to have to make those games up and they're all aware that most of them are going to be on off days," said Cleveland manager Eric Wedge, whose team has won five of six games and is percentage points ahead of Detroit for the AL Central lead. "It's just something you roll with."

Seattle manager Mike Hargrove, though, wasn't pleased when the makeup dates were announced earlier this month. The Mariners lost 2-1 at San Diego on Sunday for their fourth loss in five games.
"I think it puts a burden on us that we shouldn't have to have," Hargrove said. "I'm not sure they could have done anything that would have been fair to all the parties."

 

[Jack]

I saw this in some other post:

Seattle is 6-0 in the last six games vs lefties.

I looked it up and it's true, they were

2-1 win vs nyy pettite
9-2 win vs det robertson
15-11 win vs nyy igawa
3-2 win vs cws danks
7-4 win vs kc de la rosa

I can't find what the 6th game was, but these are about all the games that Seattle played this season where a leftie started and Seattle have won them all.

What do you think ETG?

 

[E.T.G.]

I saw this in some other post:

Seattle is 6-0 in the last six games vs lefties.

I looked it up and it's true, they were

2-1 win vs nyy pettite
9-2 win vs det robertson
15-11 win vs nyy igawa
3-2 win vs cws danks
7-4 win vs kc de la rosa

I can't find what the 6th game was, but these are about all the games that Seattle played this season where a leftie started and Seattle have won them all.

What do you think ETG?

Yea I mentioned that before but didn't look it up to see who it was against. I admit that bothers me. I would take Sabathia and the Indians at home over all of those teams but yea that is not a nice stat. I am not sure what to think about that right now to be honest. For example, they beat the Yankees 2-1 but if the Indians score only 1 run tomorrow, I am going to lose my RL bet anyway. Baek has to show me on the road vs some good LH batters that he can shut them down. The Mariners are 6-0 vs. LHP but they really only beat up Igawa (big shit) and Robertson.

Also as I mentioned, this is a 1 game series because it is a makeup. Cleveland will travel to KC and the Mariners will travel to Tampa. From the coaches responses above I don't think they are happy about spending their off day traveling to Cleveland for a make up game.

 

[Jack]

Didn't see that you mentioned it already.

The schedule certainly seem to be on cleveland's side, as they are home for tomorrow's game and off to KC the next day, not much different from a 4-game series. But for seattle they'll have to travel all the way over to cleveland after tonight's late game, while thinking about the next series all the way down in orlando.

 

[E.T.G.]

Didn't see that you mentioned it already.

The schedule certainly seem to be on cleveland's side, as they are home for tomorrow's game and off to KC the next day, not much different from a 4-game series. But for seattle they'll have to travel all the way over to cleveland after tonight's late game, while thinking about the next series all the way down in orlando.

Some quotes from the coaches:

"They know we're going to have to make those games up and they're all aware that most of them are going to be on off days," said Cleveland manager Eric Wedge, whose team has won five of six games and is percentage points ahead of Detroit for the AL Central lead. "It's just something you roll with."

Seattle manager Mike Hargrove, though, wasn't pleased when the makeup dates were announced earlier this month. The Mariners lost 2-1 at San Diego on Sunday for their fourth loss in five games.
"I think it puts a burden on us that we shouldn't have to have," Hargrove said. "I'm not sure they could have done anything that would have been fair to all the parties."<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">GL everything! It wasn't a good day yesterday for me either.
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[shakes]

btw, I am now 4-13 on Sunday, that is just mind numbing. How can I be so bad on a certain day of the wk? Chasing!

With a small card it is a little easier to look at these games..

quote]

Hang in there. After all these years, Saturday is still my horrible day of the week. Consistently. I attribute it to the card tending to be large, which leads to chasing. Plus, more time on my hand to do the chasing. You will bounce out of this. Baseball is a long season, and can get wildly unpredictable.

 

[Satyr]

yeah I looked into it a bit deeper, slept on it, and now I don't think I'll be pulling the trigger on White Sox or the Indians. Just too iffy if you ask me.

But I do like some plays, will post it in my thread soon.

GL :shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

Just woke up and looked at some lines..

Indians RL from -115 to -125
Rangers from -107 to -117
Giants down to -132

I really would like to see the Texas line come back down.

The only games I feel comfortable enough with today are Tribe RL, Reds RL, Texas, and the Giants so those will be the only games I touch if I do play.

TRIBE -1.5 --- $550 to Win $440
Reds -1.5 --- $550 to Win $458.33

I know the Mariners are 6-0 vs LHP but that doesnt really bother me right now. They are not happy about playing on their off day and this trip just adds more travel to their road trip. After they leave Cleveland they will head to Florida for the DRay series. Baek has to be got to by the Indians early and they have some serious LH batters to cause this guy trouble.

As far as the Reds go, I like this play a lot and that is saying something for a team who is 5-15 in May. The Nationals have been outscored 37-18 in their last 8 games on the road. Arroyo is facing the worst offense in the league without their leading batter. They are 5-15 on the road and this is their first game in 11 where they have to travel. The Reds won 5/6 last yr and 10/12 in this series. Nationals are last in the NL in batting average (.228), runs (142), on-base percentage (.305) and tied for last in homers (20).

 

[Satyr]

I hope we can both hit our Tribe game :shake:

Here's to Injuns 11-2 win :cheers:

 

[shakes]

If there is concern about the Mariners being 6-0 against LHP and Sabathia not putting up Santana-like numbers, why not go with the over?

 

[E.T.G.]

If there is concern about the Mariners being 6-0 against LHP and Sabathia not putting up Santana-like numbers, why not go with the over?

That is a valid question..I don't have a crystal ball and just need the Tribe to win by 2. When I made the bet I said that the Mariners being 6-0 VS LHP doesn't concern me much. They didn't exactly beat up all the LHP they faced...I feel more comfortable with the hot home team to win the game than I do predicting the amount of runs. If the score is 7-2,6-2,5-2,4-2,7-1,6-3, Tribe the over don't hit. I don't think the Mariners score more than 3 to be honest with you. I don't know what the Tribe offense is going to do to Baek but he struggles with LH batters (14.1ip, 6.91era, 17h, 11er). I am not a good totals player on top of it and right now I am not a good sides player either so I don't know what that says. I think its quite possible the Mariners could be a little sluggish today. If you like the over its a solid play and there are solid cappers on it. Today I am trying to find the most likely winner I can and imo I feel like the Tribe and Reds are. With the over you need both offenses to click and I don't know if I see that happening. The Tribe can however explode at any time and cover this shit themselves though unlikely today. GL

 

[shakes]

That's cool. I'm trying to figure out if I'm taking either of these two, of if I want to dabble in that Reds game. Problem is that I'm 0-4 against the Nats this season. Um, that's not very good.

 

[E.T.G.]

That's cool. I'm trying to figure out if I'm taking either of these two, of if I want to dabble in that Reds game. Problem is that I'm 0-4 against the Nats this season. Um, that's not very good.

I still blame the Nationals for the bullshit win they fucked me on vs. the Marlins. Their first come from behind one when Demitre Young fuken won the game in the 9th. That shit cost me a lot of money. Last time I bet against Speigner was with the Braves and they blew that game. Speigner was hit hard, real hard all game but the Braves just put 4 runs on the board. I was watching the game in my apt and the ball was flying all over the place. Reds have a potent lineup when it is on, thats the whole thing, it has to be on. Speigner though imo can't go more than 5ip, I just don't think he has the arm strength to be effective since he is a middle relief guy. Speigner has only pitched 4 innings on the road this yr. Arroyo has owned the Nationals in his 2 starts and just overall this yr been very effective. There is no reason this should be a 3-2 type game but with the Reds who knows. I took the chance because I think they beat the crap out of them but we'll see. If the Nationals do win this game than my hat is off to them because every number in the world points against them.

 

[jimbo1227]

yo green, what up playa. i got a few comments. i think it is bad to have a negative outlook on ur capping ability, u know u can find mlb winners. second, it seems like u bet on cleveland everytime CC is on the mound?? what the deal with that? im from chicago and im a huge sox fan, i watch sports pretty much all day cuz i got mlb package, i also have 2 fantasy teams which helps keep me updated on who is hot and who is not. i just had blanton on my team and i think he is a tough guy to bet against right now. contreras is one of my guys but he kills me sometimes, he has great stuff but just misses the plate alot. u should definately keep the chisox on ur radar in the future cuz they r a tight team. alright green stay up, and make dat money man

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL with those RLs. I got giants at -128 but its now being offered at -125.

 

[E.T.G.]

yo green, what up playa. i got a few comments. i think it is bad to have a negative outlook on ur capping ability, u know u can find mlb winners. second, it seems like u bet on cleveland everytime CC is on the mound?? what the deal with that? im from chicago and im a huge sox fan, i watch sports pretty much all day cuz i got mlb package, i also have 2 fantasy teams which helps keep me updated on who is hot and who is not. i just had blanton on my team and i think he is a tough guy to bet against right now. contreras is one of my guys but he kills me sometimes, he has great stuff but just misses the plate alot. u should definately keep the chisox on ur radar in the future cuz they r a tight team. alright green stay up, and make dat money man

I think its bad to have a negative outlook too and I can change that today I just need to win. I usually do pretty good on Monday cause I just got my ass handed to me on Sunday. Its been a normal routine this yr...It gets fustrating but I put a lot of effort in between yesterday and today so I hope all the work pays off, I can't say the same for last week. I didn't put in the effort and it cost me a lot of money.

hah, Good Ole CC. I didn't have him last start when he had prob his best outting. I am pretty in tune with CC since I have him on both of my fantasy teams and have for 3 yrs. The play is more than CC though. The Tribe is 8-1 when he takes the mound so it is safe to say they win. The Tribe are 16-4 at home so they play real well in Ohio. CC is 4-0 at home w/ a 2.83era in 35ip. He has 39k and 7bb at home..The Mariners are making a pitt stop in Ohio then going to Florida. Baek is 1-0 on the road w/ a 6.88era in 17ip. He has given up 22hits and has 9k and 4bb. Baek has terrible success vs LH batters (14.1ip, 6.91era, 17h, 11er) and Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez, Nixon, Dellucci are all LH batters. The Mariners are not even close to as explosive on offense as the Indians. CC will give up hits here and there but he doesnt make many mistakes.

I do have the ChiSox on my radar now that Thome is back. That is a huge boost to the offense. I just can't back the ChiSox today because I am just not that comfortable in this matchup.

 

[E.T.G.]

BOL with those RLs. I got giants at -128 but its now being offered at -125.

I am still stuck with -132 but it looks like it will keep dropping. Game isn't until 10:00 so plenty of time but I would like to catch it at -128.. Damn Matchbook and those lines its not even fair! lol

 

[shakes]

I still blame the Nationals for the bullshit win they fucked me on vs. the Marlins. Their first come from behind one when Demitre Young fuken won the game in the 9th. That shit cost me a lot of money. Last time I bet against Speigner was with the Braves and they blew that game. Speigner was hit hard, real hard all game but the Braves just put 4 runs on the board. I was watching the game in my apt and the ball was flying all over the place. Reds have a potent lineup when it is on, thats the whole thing, it has to be on. Speigner though imo can't go more than 5ip, I just don't think he has the arm strength to be effective since he is a middle relief guy. Speigner has only pitched 4 innings on the road this yr. Arroyo has owned the Nationals in his 2 starts and just overall this yr been very effective. There is no reason this should be a 3-2 type game but with the Reds who knows. I took the chance because I think they beat the crap out of them but we'll see. If the Nationals do win this game than my hat is off to them because every number in the world points against them.

Dude, I feel your pain. I was on both of those. I also laid the juice backing Smoltz and the Braves when they lost at home to these Nats. Bums lead me down a dark dark path for a while after that game.

 

[E.T.G.]

Just got back from working out and I am stunned. Arroyo, wut the fuk are you doing.. a 4 run first from the Nationals? When do I hit the panic button..Oh my that was so unexpected.. I am speechless

 

[E.T.G.]

WSox line now down to -115 and that is something I can mess with.. Texas line up to -127 and I can't touch that. Giants line down to -130, almost where I want it..

This Reds game is as good as over..That is complete shit.

 

[E.T.G.]

Not sure what I am going to do right now.. Reds are just a bad team, I said I shouldn't have touched it and I did. That is what I get for betting a team who is 5-15 in May..

If Indians hold on for the 9th I am looking at 1-1 -$100 on the day or I can push my luck and I can go with the Giants, a game I was originally looking at for -130. I just feel like everything I touch right now is going to turn to shit.

Someone who has Houston tell me why I shouldn't play the Giants, please