Steelers vs. 49ers: NFL Week 3 Picks & Game Predictions
Steelers vs 49ers
Sunday, September 22 2019 at Levi’s Stadium
Odds
These teams opened at PK before Pittsburgh lost Big Ben for the season. With his backup Mason Rudolph as the starter and with San Francisco’s public perception skyrocketing, the Steelers are favored by as many as 7.5 points. I think this line movement is dramatically exaggerated, especially considering how lackluster Roethlisberger’s start to the season was.
No Big Ben, No Big Deal
From a talent and potential perspective, the Steelers aren’t at all radically hurt for having Rudolph at quarterback. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy won the 2017 award for best senior or fourth-year quarterback in college football. Considered by scouting services as the sixth-best quarterback in the draft, Pittsburgh believed in him sufficiently to trade up for him in the third round.
After over a year of watching Roethlisberger play, Rudolph saw his first ever regular season action last week against Seattle. He came in and went 12-for-19 for 112 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception that was completely the fault of Donte Moncrief.
Rudolph showed more zip on his throws and a bit more athleticism on a first-down run than long-time observers expected in addition to his known strengths of pocket presence and deep passing accuracy.
Evidently, the Steelers know how to utilize Rudolph. They’re calling for more play-action and deep balls, allowing Rudolph to connect with the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu is one of the league’s most explosive receivers based on burst score and excels at creating separation from his defender, evidenced in his ranking 13th in average target separation.
I expect James Washington to get more playing time than Moncrief. Pittsburgh drafted Washington in the second round, 16 picks before Rudolph, who was his teammate for four years. In 2017, Washington was honored as college football’s best wide receiver and clicked with Rudolph in preseason.
49ers’ Plan Of Defensive Attack Falters
When running deeper routes, receivers need more time to get downfield. Rudolph has the patience in the pocket, but he still needs sufficient time.
So far, San Francisco’s pass rush boasts one of the higher adjusted sack rates and contributes to its second-ranked pass defense. Dee Ford has played a significant individual role. But, he’s dealing with knee tendinitis that leaves his playing status and especially his fitness up in the air.
More importantly, Pittsburgh’s offensive line represents a drastically more difficult test for the 49ers’ pass rush. The Steelers own the fourth-best pass protection based on adjusted sack rate allowed and are comfortable with San Francisco’s defensive scheme. On Sunday, they limited Seahawk defensive end Jadeveon Clowney’s impact, keeping him from getting any sacks. Clowney, like San Fran's defensive ends, loves to line up in wide-9 technique.
Pass protection is critical because the 49ers’ secondary contains essentially the same personnel as last year’s, which ranked 27th in pass defense bested on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), and promises to get exposed.
San Francisco’s Offensive Line Suffered A Major Loss
Depth in its pass protection was a known question mark coming into the season and San Francisco didn’t really do anything to address it. Warning signs in preseason showed what sort of trouble the offense would encounter if protection became an issue.
And then it happened: Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Staley, PFF’s 12th-highest-graded pass-blocker since 2006, suffered a broken leg.
Without him, the 49ers encounter the eighth-best pass rush in terms of adjusted sack rate. Pittsburgh’s front seven includes Pro Bowler T.J. Watt, All-Pro Cameron Heyward, and Stephon Tuitt, PFF’s 21st-highest-graded defensive lineman last year.
Whereas Rudolph will have the time to go deep, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo won’t find it so easy to exploit Pittsburgh’s expected primary weakness in covering tight end George Kittle over the middle. The Steelers’ pass coverage as a whole should receive a boost with the addition of former Dolphin first-rounder safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Best Bet: Steelers +7.5 at -145 odds with 5Dimes
Steelers vs 49ers
Sunday, September 22 2019 at Levi’s Stadium
Odds
These teams opened at PK before Pittsburgh lost Big Ben for the season. With his backup Mason Rudolph as the starter and with San Francisco’s public perception skyrocketing, the Steelers are favored by as many as 7.5 points. I think this line movement is dramatically exaggerated, especially considering how lackluster Roethlisberger’s start to the season was.
No Big Ben, No Big Deal
From a talent and potential perspective, the Steelers aren’t at all radically hurt for having Rudolph at quarterback. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy won the 2017 award for best senior or fourth-year quarterback in college football. Considered by scouting services as the sixth-best quarterback in the draft, Pittsburgh believed in him sufficiently to trade up for him in the third round.
After over a year of watching Roethlisberger play, Rudolph saw his first ever regular season action last week against Seattle. He came in and went 12-for-19 for 112 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception that was completely the fault of Donte Moncrief.
Rudolph showed more zip on his throws and a bit more athleticism on a first-down run than long-time observers expected in addition to his known strengths of pocket presence and deep passing accuracy.
Evidently, the Steelers know how to utilize Rudolph. They’re calling for more play-action and deep balls, allowing Rudolph to connect with the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu is one of the league’s most explosive receivers based on burst score and excels at creating separation from his defender, evidenced in his ranking 13th in average target separation.
I expect James Washington to get more playing time than Moncrief. Pittsburgh drafted Washington in the second round, 16 picks before Rudolph, who was his teammate for four years. In 2017, Washington was honored as college football’s best wide receiver and clicked with Rudolph in preseason.
49ers’ Plan Of Defensive Attack Falters
When running deeper routes, receivers need more time to get downfield. Rudolph has the patience in the pocket, but he still needs sufficient time.
So far, San Francisco’s pass rush boasts one of the higher adjusted sack rates and contributes to its second-ranked pass defense. Dee Ford has played a significant individual role. But, he’s dealing with knee tendinitis that leaves his playing status and especially his fitness up in the air.
More importantly, Pittsburgh’s offensive line represents a drastically more difficult test for the 49ers’ pass rush. The Steelers own the fourth-best pass protection based on adjusted sack rate allowed and are comfortable with San Francisco’s defensive scheme. On Sunday, they limited Seahawk defensive end Jadeveon Clowney’s impact, keeping him from getting any sacks. Clowney, like San Fran's defensive ends, loves to line up in wide-9 technique.
Pass protection is critical because the 49ers’ secondary contains essentially the same personnel as last year’s, which ranked 27th in pass defense bested on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), and promises to get exposed.
San Francisco’s Offensive Line Suffered A Major Loss
Depth in its pass protection was a known question mark coming into the season and San Francisco didn’t really do anything to address it. Warning signs in preseason showed what sort of trouble the offense would encounter if protection became an issue.
And then it happened: Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Staley, PFF’s 12th-highest-graded pass-blocker since 2006, suffered a broken leg.
Without him, the 49ers encounter the eighth-best pass rush in terms of adjusted sack rate. Pittsburgh’s front seven includes Pro Bowler T.J. Watt, All-Pro Cameron Heyward, and Stephon Tuitt, PFF’s 21st-highest-graded defensive lineman last year.
Whereas Rudolph will have the time to go deep, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo won’t find it so easy to exploit Pittsburgh’s expected primary weakness in covering tight end George Kittle over the middle. The Steelers’ pass coverage as a whole should receive a boost with the addition of former Dolphin first-rounder safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Best Bet: Steelers +7.5 at -145 odds with 5Dimes
