49ers vs. Rams NFC Championship Game Preview and Best Bet
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Odds Breakdown
These teams first met on November 15 in San Francisco.
The over/under was 50 and the "over" was never in danger.
With its characteristic ball-control offense, the 49ers amassed 44 rushing attempts and nearly doubled L.A.'s time of possession.
Benefitting from total control over the game, San Francisco won 31-10.
However, the rematch did go "over." In the January 9 rematch, the over/under was 46.5 and the final score was 27-24 in favor of the 49ers.
There were some hardly repeatable events in that game which explain why it was as high-scoring as it was.
First of all, there was a 19-yard touchdown drive off an interception.
This is something that could be more likely to repeat itself especially because of Jimmy Garoppolo's repetitive tendency to throw interceptions or at least interceptable passes especially when his intended target is outside the numbers.
However, one thing that I don't think will repeat itself is the fact that, in the January 9 rematch, San Francisco had to come from behind and play with more urgency. The Rams amassed a 17-0 lead.
San Francisco is not a team that wants to come from behind because that makes it more reliant on the pass.
It is the type of team that, like in the first meeting between these teams, would rather control time of possession by running it with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel.
On the season, the 49ers rank third in rush-play percentage. But in the second quarter of the January 9 rematch, there were spans of play where the 49ers were passing the ball nearly 90% of the time.
One such pass-heavy 49er drive was its last one in regulation. Because the score was 24-17 in favor of L.A., the "over" depended on this drive resulting in a touchdown.
San Francisco achieved this result due to a freak occurrence. Ram safety Taylor Rapp had his bell rung during the drive, as a result of which occurrence he got up slowly and was clearly out of it.
Due to Rapp's poor condition, he left Jalen Ramsey helpless against both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
Ramsey, normally the Rams' best player in the secondary, suffered an unusual big play.
That entire drive was a product of more than one big play allowed. The whole Rams secondary looked bizarrely awful the entire time.
As evident in L.A.'s most recent game against Tampa Bay, where Tom Brady put up massive second-half numbers after struggling in the first half, the Ram pass defense often struggles massively to hold a strong lead.
A lower-scoring game will depend on the Rams not accumulating such a strong lead.
Ram Offense vs. 49er Defense
L.A. matches up poorly against San Francisco given the latter's strength against the pass.
Despite promising later in the season to devote itself more strongly to the run game, Los Angeles remains a pass-first offense.
To be clear, the Rams have tried to run the ball more. In most recent contests, they've enjoyed nice leads which gave them the opportunity to milk clock.
Meanwhile, they want to give Cam Akers, who had spent nearly the whole regular season injured, some confidence back. Thus, they've been feeding him a lot albeit with minimal success.
Against Tampa Bay, for example, he mustered 48 rushing yards on 24 carries. Despite Akers' struggles, Sony Michel seems to have taken a back seat to him. and initial starter Darrell Henderson may not be sufficiently recovered from his knee injury.
Given its shortcomings at the running back position, Los Angeles perforce relies on passing the ball.
But the 49er pass defense has been stellar and well-tested in these playoffs, holding Dak Prescott to a 69.3 passer rating and Aaron Rodgers to a 91.9 passer rating with a third of the latter's passing yards coming on a single play.
Having top cornerback Emmanuel Moseley back healthy and not rusty is tremendous.
San Francisco also boast a top-level pass rush, ranking third in sack percentage thanks to speedy, high-motor stars like Nick Bosa who has 2.5 sacks this postseason.
The "under" has hit easily in both 49er postseason games so far because of this defense's repeated ability to limit weapon-laden offenses.
49er Offense vs. Ram Defense
San Francisco's offensive ceiling is limited by its quarterback's shortcomings.
Jimmy Garoppolo is a high-risk, turnover-prone instance of mediocrity who has thrown at least one interception and suffered a sub-90 passer rating in four straight games.
Elijah Mitchell will be San Francisco's top ball-carrier but he couldn't remotely approach his season YPC average in two games against the Rams this year.
Led by superstar defensive tackle Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has one of the NFL's stoutest run defenses, which further curbs San Francisco's already limited offensive potential.
The 49ers will find ways to sustain drives. They will throw short passes against L.A.'s soft zone coverage and they will run with Mitchell between the tackles and, to be diverse, with speedy Deebo Samuel outside the tackles.
Like in the first meeting between these teams, these drives will be good for the "under" because they will drain a lot of clock and they will further help to keep the Rams from generating the big lead that we don't want them to have.
Best Bet: Under 46.5 at -110 with BetOnline
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Odds Breakdown
These teams first met on November 15 in San Francisco.
The over/under was 50 and the "over" was never in danger.
With its characteristic ball-control offense, the 49ers amassed 44 rushing attempts and nearly doubled L.A.'s time of possession.
Benefitting from total control over the game, San Francisco won 31-10.
However, the rematch did go "over." In the January 9 rematch, the over/under was 46.5 and the final score was 27-24 in favor of the 49ers.
There were some hardly repeatable events in that game which explain why it was as high-scoring as it was.
First of all, there was a 19-yard touchdown drive off an interception.
This is something that could be more likely to repeat itself especially because of Jimmy Garoppolo's repetitive tendency to throw interceptions or at least interceptable passes especially when his intended target is outside the numbers.
However, one thing that I don't think will repeat itself is the fact that, in the January 9 rematch, San Francisco had to come from behind and play with more urgency. The Rams amassed a 17-0 lead.
San Francisco is not a team that wants to come from behind because that makes it more reliant on the pass.
It is the type of team that, like in the first meeting between these teams, would rather control time of possession by running it with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel.
On the season, the 49ers rank third in rush-play percentage. But in the second quarter of the January 9 rematch, there were spans of play where the 49ers were passing the ball nearly 90% of the time.
One such pass-heavy 49er drive was its last one in regulation. Because the score was 24-17 in favor of L.A., the "over" depended on this drive resulting in a touchdown.
San Francisco achieved this result due to a freak occurrence. Ram safety Taylor Rapp had his bell rung during the drive, as a result of which occurrence he got up slowly and was clearly out of it.
Due to Rapp's poor condition, he left Jalen Ramsey helpless against both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
Ramsey, normally the Rams' best player in the secondary, suffered an unusual big play.
That entire drive was a product of more than one big play allowed. The whole Rams secondary looked bizarrely awful the entire time.
As evident in L.A.'s most recent game against Tampa Bay, where Tom Brady put up massive second-half numbers after struggling in the first half, the Ram pass defense often struggles massively to hold a strong lead.
A lower-scoring game will depend on the Rams not accumulating such a strong lead.
Ram Offense vs. 49er Defense
L.A. matches up poorly against San Francisco given the latter's strength against the pass.
Despite promising later in the season to devote itself more strongly to the run game, Los Angeles remains a pass-first offense.
To be clear, the Rams have tried to run the ball more. In most recent contests, they've enjoyed nice leads which gave them the opportunity to milk clock.
Meanwhile, they want to give Cam Akers, who had spent nearly the whole regular season injured, some confidence back. Thus, they've been feeding him a lot albeit with minimal success.
Against Tampa Bay, for example, he mustered 48 rushing yards on 24 carries. Despite Akers' struggles, Sony Michel seems to have taken a back seat to him. and initial starter Darrell Henderson may not be sufficiently recovered from his knee injury.
Given its shortcomings at the running back position, Los Angeles perforce relies on passing the ball.
But the 49er pass defense has been stellar and well-tested in these playoffs, holding Dak Prescott to a 69.3 passer rating and Aaron Rodgers to a 91.9 passer rating with a third of the latter's passing yards coming on a single play.
Having top cornerback Emmanuel Moseley back healthy and not rusty is tremendous.
San Francisco also boast a top-level pass rush, ranking third in sack percentage thanks to speedy, high-motor stars like Nick Bosa who has 2.5 sacks this postseason.
The "under" has hit easily in both 49er postseason games so far because of this defense's repeated ability to limit weapon-laden offenses.
49er Offense vs. Ram Defense
San Francisco's offensive ceiling is limited by its quarterback's shortcomings.
Jimmy Garoppolo is a high-risk, turnover-prone instance of mediocrity who has thrown at least one interception and suffered a sub-90 passer rating in four straight games.
Elijah Mitchell will be San Francisco's top ball-carrier but he couldn't remotely approach his season YPC average in two games against the Rams this year.
Led by superstar defensive tackle Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has one of the NFL's stoutest run defenses, which further curbs San Francisco's already limited offensive potential.
The 49ers will find ways to sustain drives. They will throw short passes against L.A.'s soft zone coverage and they will run with Mitchell between the tackles and, to be diverse, with speedy Deebo Samuel outside the tackles.
Like in the first meeting between these teams, these drives will be good for the "under" because they will drain a lot of clock and they will further help to keep the Rams from generating the big lead that we don't want them to have.
Best Bet: Under 46.5 at -110 with BetOnline
