***4***

Lexington 125

I cap it all, and I cap it well.
got smacked last week but finished strong. Gotta update record.

Tonight

boys/giants 1sth o22.5-117

ceedee rec yds o79.5

3 units each


+325. CeeDee td/rec yds o99.5

+450. Singletary td/Nabers td

1 unit each
 
Have to think boys want to start fast. Eye test tells me the boys d is not right. Whole world on boys to get right I think it may be a fast 1sth. Back at half
 
Dumb total add when I knew I was kind of lucky to hit 1sth.

Boys 2ndh ML should have cashed but what really burned me was the 2 yd loss on CeeDee parlay. I really thought he was going to go for 150 but that's gambling.

3-4 +3.35
 
Packers-2.5-120

Saints+3-120

Bears tt o20.5-124

Eagles-112

Steelers/Colts o40.5

4 units each



Cincy-12.5
Raiders-2.5
Bills+7
+1035

1 unit
 
Tee higgins rec yards o52.5-118
Tee Higgins rec yds o69.5+180

Braelon Allen anytime TD+180

Josh Jacobs TD-117

2 units each


DJ Moore 1st td/ rec yds o74.5+1500

half unit


1st td parlay +37400

Zach Moss
DJ Moore
Aiyuk

.25 units
 
Eagles D just can't get off the field. No shot to come back there.

Still looking into later game/Bills thoughts
leans

SF tt over

Aiyuk yards over & TD

Raiders
 
Commanders+3.5

Commanders tt o22.5

49ers-10.5

49ers tt o26.5

3 units each


Aiyuk 1st td+700

Aiyuk yds o79.5/ TD/ 49ers 1sth tt o13.5+800

1 unit each
 
There we go!


Bills tt o21.5-110

Bills+125

Bills/Ravens 1sth o23.5

JamesCook rec yds o20.5

Kincaid rec yds o41.5-117

3 units each


Justice Hill rush & rec yds o29.5

Shakir td +175

2 units each


Kincaid yds o59.5/TD scored +650

1 unit


+4000

Allen rush & rec o266.5
Cook rec yds o34.5
Shakir td
Kincaid td

half unit
 
Bills thoughts

Said it before and I'll say it again Allen is on a mission. Playcalling has been great but here's a real test on the road in a hostile environment. Last week Jax basically dared Buffalo to throw and so they took what was given to them. The key to this offense is being balanced. People are winning routes and throwing blocks like crazy out there, offensive line has been winning. Most importantly Allen has been limiting the mistakes and playing smart without forcing the ball.

Defensively they are keeping everything in front of them and playing physical. Again they aren't making huge mistakes and the Ravens have been penalty machines. Bills d line is playing the best I've seen since Mario Williams/Kyle days. Secondary quietly becoming sneaky good.

I don't know how you can bet against that.

I do think the Ravens could have success over center with play action and misdirection, but idk how much they will do that since Lamar seemingly favors the gun. If Henry gets going early the Bills are in for a long one but I think they will gameplan to above all stop Henry. I think the Ravens may use Justice Hill a bit more than Henry lovers would like them to-I think it could give them a little more advantage in the passing game. Was close to an Andrews or likely prop as I think they could both have decent mismatches on LBs or cbs. My biggest concern is the Ravens run game gets going and the play action to the tight ends eat up the lbs. Here's a game where idk if the Bills will be able to play out of the coverages they have been and still shut down the run completely. They have historically played Lamar well but this is a different team. I think he will be able to extend a couple plays and worry about Zay running free.

Offensively I think the Bills are going to try and run to stay balanced but they have the advantage in the passing game. Interested to see if Ray Davis continues to see more snaps- he was great in pass pro which was huge. I do think Allen wants Cook involved and if he doesn't drop another gimme I think he gets 30+rec yds- love the props that can hit with one big playas we know Cook has that potential. If Allen gets protection I think Kincaid could be a huge mismatch- I am auto betting him until further notice as I said it'sa matter of time before he explodes. Shakir should be able to get open as well and I nearly played his catches o5.5. In the end I settled for TD prop as I think he just has a knack for scoring.

This is a game where both teams may WANT to take the air out of the ball, but despite that I think both get over 20 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills put up 30 the way the offense is humming. Opted for the 1sth over as I think 24 points is very attainable. 17-10 Bills at the half would be ok with me.

I think 31-24 Bills type game Allen throws 3 tds and Kincaid has his coming out party
 
Bills took a thumping my worries about this game came true. At least I hit Kincaid/ 1sth over & 1sth over....

The trick play is the first time this season I question wtf Brady as thinking.... finally moving the ball in our offense and they do that?

After SNF I'm up 2 units on the week. MNF plays to finish it out strong

LaPorta rec yds o38.5

LaPorta td+175

Amon-Ra rec yds o74.5

2 units each


Det ML/ all 3 props above +950

1 unit
 
Last two. Packing up for camping so I won’t even see if I win until tomorrow. See y’all next week!

Gibbs td -143

5 units


Waddle rec yds o39.5+102

3 units



Would think hill gets the attention and this is another prop where it could take 2 catches to get there. Gibbs so juicy but i like it so I’m jumping out the window!

Gl all
 
Rereading my bills thoughts and I feel like I was pretty accurate although wrong on the side. Justice hill tore them up. Henry got going early and it was a long day for Buffalo haha. Shakir should have scored and I tend to think he does if he wasn’t banged up from earlier.

Time to get damar out of there he took the worst angles ever on Henry long runs he’s a bum. Put the rookie out there fuck it.

Keon is going to be a problem even though he dropped a dime. Glad allen has someone with size

Still going to be playing Kincaid yards over props cashed 2 weeks in a row. It’ll prob be 51.5 this week I’m totally guessing.
 
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