4.9

[SportsNut]

Extremely short on time at the moment...

+8.33units
-0.57units
-24.80units
+17.00units
+15.90units(-0.75u)
-6.63units
+16.35units (-1.50u)
-3.75 units
+16.90units today

Philly +125 {2.5units} ARL -1.5 +190{1/2unit} -3.00
Over 8.5 Pitt +100 {5units}(try for 8 runs) -5.00
Cards +105 {2units} ARL -1.5 +170 {.75unit} +3.38
Cubs -155 {3.5units} (strong lean UND 8) -5.43
Orioles -125 {5units}(strong lean UND 10-120) +5.00


Might add both strong leans for 2 units...

Cubs Und 8.5 -110 {2units} +2.00
Tigers Under 4.5 team -115 {2units} +2.00

Net +2.95 units & +2.65 from props =+5.60u



Notes:
Despite Hamel's bumps in his 2006 day starts as well as ST hiccups the price warrants a play. I think it was growing pains and nothing more that happened in his day starts which were more early in his tenure. Maine was excellent in his 1st start and solid vs Philly last season. However I still say STL isnt hitting(yet). Hamels is one of the best younger SP in the league. Really both offenses are struggling. Some think NY is hitting but take away 5 and 6 run innings againt the pen and the numbers look different. We all know bout the wind patterns at Shea. Do you know how much the Beltran and Delgado combo struggle to hit at home?? NY also doesnt hit LHP that well lets see if Alou chanegs that much...with the wind blowing out according to CKR a drop to 8 I cant play the under which I leaned ....

Snell is the better of the two SP . His young career has proven to be disasterous in DAY starts...7 career ERA!!! I cant back him in that situation especially knowing he pitched better on the road then at home and better vs RHB then LHB...and StL will throw some LH sticks athim unlike Houston did. Looper was solid for 5 before tiring so hopefully he can be solid for 6 here and let the pen take over. STL and Pitt are the drastic opposites in day games. Cards ruled the day on both sides of the ball where Pitt was quite the opposite... Pujols loves hitting vs thePirates and well he got HR #1 yesterday...

Lilly is healthy and pumped about 2007. The Astros dont hit on the road , in day games or vs LHP. Lilly has held Lee to 2/14 career and Loretta actually hit him well..expect Biggio on the bench...

Williams doesnt have good splits in day games and has been bad @ Wrigley. Think 1-6 with a 6 ERA career. I would expect an Under but not sure I play it...just want to check the wind but think UND 8 but happen for me....(2units)

Balt with Cabrera cause he has seemed to figure out. He has been solid at home and death on RHB. Well look at DET RH heavy lineup a good paper matchup.....Durbin is greatly improved from his KC days . I think this is a new a Cabrera and wont look at old stats. The one I key on is his numbers vs RHB.....Balt will throw out a bunch of LHB vs DET / Durbin and have the edge IMO....

Should be back around 3 PM...Good Luck!!


Props(1unit unless stated)+2.65 units
Utley -115 TB vs Wright +1.00
Howard -125 TB vs Beltran {2units} +2.00
Pujols -125 TB vs Bay +1.00
D.Lee -125 TB vs Berkman +1.00
A.Ramirez -110 TB vs C.lee -1.10
Soriano H,R,RBI 0125 vs Biggio -1.25

:cheers:

 

[gopackgo444]

On the Phillies as well. I may tail you on St.Louis over. Good luck my friend.

 

[THESHOOTER]

good luck Nut. surprised 2 c u on Phi

 

[thecakeoff]

Yankees TT hova 5.5

 

[Satyr]

Good luck SportsNut, on the Cubbies as well. :cheers:

 

[thecakeoff]

Good luck SportsNut, on the Cubbies as well. :cheers:

good bet sucker bet too Yankees over 5.5 runs easy winner FAT BOY SONPON !

 

[Satyr]

I bet the game at over 10.5. Suits me :cheers:

 

[thecakeoff]

SportsNut what was Houston Atros TT over the total for the game was 8

 

[B.A.R.]

Great thread as always Nut.

GL the rest of the afternoon/evening

 

[SportsNut]

First order of business I did play the under 8.5 -110@ Chi {2units} & Under 4.5 Tigers -115 team {2units} to complete my day schedule...

Thanks BAR:shake: ...GL

Cakeoff...I wasnt paying close attentin but think Hou was 3.5...

Satyr..GL

Thanks gopack...BOL today...STL still cant hit...

Shooter.....I dont think the Mets are playing quite as well as advertised and the difference in SP was wide. However from listening on the radio the Phills continue to fail to get clutch hits and leave MOB...GL
:cheers:

 

[gopackgo444]

Nut - I did play for half a unit. I thought yesterday might have got them going. I did play Stl for a full unit though. Hopefully they can hang on.

 

[SportsNut]

Well that makes me feel good....hopefully STL can hold on as of now obviously they have the better chance...I have to learn to be cautious of making big plays with big line moves...:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

4 Pm starts

add:

Under 8 -105 {3units}
LAD -137 {1.5units}

I did go back and forth on this total. I basically resigned myself to seeing which way it moved and going the opposite way...IE over at 7 runs and Under at 8 runs..

Looking at history the Dodgers are extremely toughh at home vs LHP (12-7 LYR) and I still might add them. Francis has pitched well there in the past and Schimdt has been excellent is his SFG career @ Dodger Stadium as well as being excellent vs COL when he pitches vs them in his HOME park.

Emmel tends to lean towards an UNDER as well. Now the wind blowing out and a day game favor the over. I just dont expect much offense here. Col scored 7 runs in 3 games @ SD....same story with them on the road it seems...

:cheers:

 

[j3pj3p]

Bol with LAD. I have them to win 1 unit.

 

[Ale10]

GL SN, i played the Dodgers ML too.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks J3 & Ale ....Good Luck to us..

 

[gopackgo444]

With ya on LAD.

 

[SportsNut]

Evening games

Adding: ( today +0.40 units )



Yankees -130 {4units} +4.00
Over 9.5 +105 KC {4units} +4.20
KC +195 {1unit} & Tor -2.5 RL +160{1/2unit} hedge net -0.20
Rays +145 {1unit} ARL -1.5 +195 {1/2unit} -1.50
Over 10 -105 Texas {4units} +4.00
Under 8.5 +100 Milw {5units} +5.00
Brewers +112 [2units} -2.00
Arizona -104 {3units} -1.5 +190 {1/2unit} -2.5 +265 {1/2unit} +2.00



Prop: (all 1 unit unless stated) TB = Total Bases
Eric Byrnes +100 TB vs Adam Dunn +1.00

Notes:
You hate to lay wood in Minny since they are so tough at home (4-2 L6 @ H vs NYY). You hate to fade a SP familiar with his opponent(4-1 5 starts) and possibly toiling with revenge since his lst ML start was vs NYY. However I actually have liked what I have seen from Pavano. His numbers dont tell the story. The Yankee defense the first week has been beyond horrible . When you need to catch a break and its not there the flood gates open. Factor in there starters all dealing with some sort of injury setback and few of these guys outside of Igawa had enough ST work. Well the pen hopefully isnt overworked cause it has been solid. Truth is Pavano has exceled at pitching on the road before his injury. With all the pressure at the STADIUM his numbers were very good away in 2005. Ponson really gets hit hard by most Yankee bats outside of AROD who is swinging well and hopefully overcomes that. White is OUT and redmond the backup catcher is the DH. The Yanks will send out 7 LHP bats v s Ponson plus jeter andArod. Arod is HOT and Jeter hits Ponson very well in his career. If this game becomes a slugfest I like NY chances of winning it. Rincon is questionable tonite after missing two games. For NY it could be scary to not have either LH in the pen available facing the modern day M&M boyz....

In Toronto simply looking for a slugfest. Burnett struggled with command in his 1st outing which I think may have been due to the cold. In his career starts vs KC he hasnt fared well and I like how KC will look with Sweeney resting. Perez has dealt with blister issues which can cut a start short at any moment. Trust me I know from experience! Anyway Tor matches up real well vs LHP and has hammered it for the most part and beat Perez 10-6 last season....

With McCarthy squaring off vs Jackson I expect to see runs. Jackson has been inconsistent and owns a great start last year @ texas. Tonite his problem will be rust due to inactivity. Those arent even my concerns there manager Joe Maddon's!!! McCarthy allowed alot of long balls this Spring and well its Texas! The lowest output for the TB offense ws 3 runs vs roy Halladay...they have allowed at least 6 in every game excpet one where they allowed 5 runs. The pens dont scare me despite Texas early success...Mccarthy was handed a rotation spot based on expectations and really IMO hasnt even shown enough to be a #5 starter....all 3 April games last year in tex were slugfests..


In Florida you have a pitchers park with 2 real solid SP. The Fla lineup is missing a few hitters as well....

In Arizona I dont like Cincy facing LHP's . Griffey and Dunn have struggled vs Davis. Even RHB Phillips and Freel have had little success. Arroyo struggles to a degree with LHB and that will be Zona's key....Conine and Ross are the sleepers to the Reds equation...

Good Luck....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Also later tonite probably wont touch the SD game ...under possibly. However will play the UNDER 8 @ Oak if it holds there..

 

[SportsNut]

Guess the Toronto HP UMP is a rookie...Paul Nauert..??

 

[SportsNut]

Wow! That LAD ending sucked....sac flies in the 9th lose my under play! How many time u see 4 sac flies after the 5th inning???

 

[thecakeoff]

Yankees over 5.5 was a easy one

 

[SportsNut]

Dont jinx it cake!!!

locked in Zona -104 , +190 , +265 on those plays listed earlier.....Might not be around till later. Dont think I will play the UNDER 8 in Oak..BOL

 

[jimbo1227]

r u takin a break in nba?

 

[SportsNut]

Not really Jim. Just havent seen all that much I am interested in...have played some things but just didnt post...didnt touch anything today though.

On another note real happy to get some lucky breaks tonite. However had strong leans to all 3 late Unders and didnt play any.....thats disappointing....

 

[SportsNut]

Feel like I missed alot of late nite dough...but outside of the LAD total everything worked out real well....especially at nite ..+16.90 for the day:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

hell of a day ..:shake:

Tell me why I shouldnt bet LAD/Rockies Over 8 tomorrow?

I just feel like this game goes over or that I am being suckered in.. Am I missing something?

 

[SportsNut]

Looking at it now...one sec

 

[SportsNut]

Its just the usual concerns with nite games in LA which always takes away some of the attractiveness of overs....the ball just doesnt carry and depending on the weather it can be an a extreme..just ook at the recent nite games out West

Lopez has to be watched for now since he was so good his 1st outing and Tomko has pitched some good games in his home park vs Col in recent seasons . Neither team hitting much though concerns me...wouldnt think of playing an under but I could see this hanging around 7-9 runs..I understand why the over looks so attractive its just can these lineups take advantage? The pitcher hitting a HR and 4 sac flies today .....

Play now worry about later? Cant see it getting cheaper..not a game of great interest to me

 

[E.T.G.]

:shake:

Fair enough.. If it went to 8.5 I wouldn't play it because atleast 8 could save me with a push. I don't have the best feel for overs and thought this one was a little low. Helton didn't play for the Rockies today and they scored 6. Holliday was 1-5 w/ no RBIs. I thought they have some bats in there that can really score some runs on any given day. The totals out west have been scary low though and that is a great point.

 

[HUNT]

:bow:

 

[xpression syst_m]

great job nut

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks hunt and xpression....

 

[panos]

Great job, SportsNut!:smiley_abcs: