4.5 and below TIP

[RetroVK]

The tip is this .... when handicapping a game with a line of 4.5 or less, forget about the points and handicap to the winner. It is somewhat rare for the dog to cover these spreads and NOT also win the game. I found 180 games last year where the game was lined 4.5 or lower in non-neutral site games.

Only 7 times did the favorite win and not cover in those 180 games ( 3.9 percent )

It broke down like this....

Away favorite lost outright 42
Away favorite won and covered 38
Away favorite won but did not cover 5
Away pushes 3

Home favorite lost outright 43
Home favorite won and covered 45
Home favorite won but did not cover 2
Home pushes 2

favorites of this level in nonneutral site games 83-92-5

I do not use computer spreadsheets so apologize if i missed a game. I also used what i wrote down as a closing line last year. Obviously there could be several games where getting the better number is significant ( the 5 pushes of course ).

My point is ,,,,,,, don't worry too much about the points ... cap the winner in these games that are lined 4.5 or lower.

 

[JPicks]

Good shit Kyle.

 

[tru]

:shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

awsome shit here kyle:cheers:

 

[bull]

The first thing I look for each week are the dogs I think have a good chance of winning. Then the more points they are getting, the better I like it.
kyle- are you suggesting ML plays when the points are 4.5 or less?
good thread.
bull

 

[Schrute]

Awesome research

 

[RetroVK]

The first thing I look for each week are the dogs I think have a good chance of winning. Then the more points they are getting, the better I like it.
kyle- are you suggesting ML plays when the points are 4.5 or less?
good thread.
bull

Will have to sift back thru this to determine that. Some of these games are -1 , not sure if they even have ml for those. Every game where the favorite won and did not cover was 3 or more points except oklahoma state -2.5 at home to kansas state ( 41-39 okiest ).

the others were

-3 points 3 times
-3.5 points 2 times
-4.5 points 1 time

Also i left the western michigan northern illinois game off the list entirely since I had the game listed at 4/4.5. Steele has it at 4.5. wmich won 17-13. So that game was either a push or a qualify.

According to lindetrain in an earlier thread and redbearde said this is close , we would expect moneylines in this range ....

+3 = +130 to +150
+3.5 = +150 to +160
+4 = +160 to +180
+4.5 = +180 to +200

Based on that , YES i would say ml is the way to go on dogs of 4.5 or less. But , i should really sift through it first and determine the mathematical difference. Give me a day and i will break it down more.

 

[Mags]

Great shit bro!

 

[B.A.R.]

Love this guy...

 

[Blue_Chip]

great info... thx

 

[horses]

Great stuff Kyle but I know as soon as I bet a 4-pt dog on the ML they'll lose SU by three...

 

[macdamn]

Good stuff Kyle. That's why I love betting the ML dogs. I know in the NFL it's something like 80% of the time the team that wins covers the spread. Now in CFB, overall it's not that high because the spreads are often much higher. But I would imagine it's about 80% or so as well for spreads of 10 or less. You're data from last year pretty much confirms it, on low spreads, the winner usually covers it.:shake:

 

[bull]

kyle- I wasn't asking you to do any further research. What you do and post is awesome. I was just asking if you played them ATS or ML.
I gather you play ATS, and so do I. Occasionally I might make a ML play, but it is seldom naked ( i.e. I back up a dog ML play with an ATS play ).
Chers
bull

 

[Tide High]

yep, exactly the reason i never take +3 but take the ML instead. there are rare exceptions, especially in the SEC, when i'll take +3.5.

 

[RetroVK]

Ok. i doubt i will be able to keep this up for the entirety of the season but here are the results from last night, station casinos final lines because that is where i was watching football.


vanderbilt +3.5 at miami ohio ..... vanderbilt wins 34 -13
this result is a +1.40 unit win on ml and a +1.00 unit win ATS.

Running totals .... ml +1.40 units , ATS +1.00 units ml leads by 0.40 units

utep +3.5 at buffalo , utep +140 loses 42-17
the result is -1.00 units on ml , ATS -1.10 units

running totals .....ml +0.40 , ATS -0.10. ml leads by 0.50 units

Stanford +3 vs oregon st , stanford +135 wins 36-28
result is +1.35 units on ml , ATS + 1.00 units

running totals ml +1.75 , ATS + 0.90 units , ml leads by 0.85 units

 

[Rupos]

Nice...good work VegasK

 

[Joe Public]

The ghost of Wantitall4moi is alive and well.

Almost brings a tear to my eye.

Great post, VK.

 

[Schrute]

So in these situations we should be Capping the Game

Oh I'm Yag

 

[TopDaddy]

Great stuff Kyle.

 

[Blue_Chip]

So in these situations we should be Capping the Game

Oh I'm Yag

:36_11_6:

 

[LooseOnTheLead]

:cheers:

 

[Marlo]

Utah/Michigan -3

Alabama/Clemson -4.5

Kentucky/Ville -3.5

Those games fall into Kyles facts up top for this weekend.

Good shit VK.

 

[wizardofodd]

kyle, i had a thread about stuff like this last year and it works really well. you just have to pick the SU winner and more than likely you will cover the spread or win the ML. I did it with NBA and NFL LY, but I am doing college football this year.

Last night was a good one for it, not for me, my ass went 0-4, but for my records and stats sheet, this is what I got last night.

Utep
Buff -3, won SU and covered

Troy -6, won SU and covered
Md Tenn st.

Vandy +3.5, Dog SU win
Mia OH

Wake Forest -12, won SU and covered
Baylor

NCST
SC -14.5, won SU and covered

OreSt
Stan +2.5, Dog SU win


So last night, out of the 6 games, the spread did not mean jack in all 6 games!!

BOL, I will be tracking NCAFF this year with lines and update each week.

 

[luvthemcowboys]

good read great info

 

[RetroVK]

kyle, i had a thread about stuff like this last year and it works really well. you just have to pick the SU winner and more than likely you will cover the spread or win the ML. I did it with NBA and NFL LY, but I am doing college football this year.

Last night was a good one for it, not for me, my ass went 0-4, but for my records and stats sheet, this is what I got last night.

Utep
Buff -3, won SU and covered

Troy -6, won SU and covered
Md Tenn st.

Vandy +3.5, Dog SU win
Mia OH

Wake Forest -12, won SU and covered
Baylor

NCST
SC -14.5, won SU and covered

OreSt
Stan +2.5, Dog SU win


So last night, out of the 6 games, the spread did not mean jack in all 6 games!!

BOL, I will be tracking NCAFF this year with lines and update each week.

yeah i only researched this for the smaller lined games 4.5 or less and didnt go back too many years because i get lazy. would be interested to see your findings on this.

 

[tendog]

thanks for this work, Kyle. Also today I noticed the moderator tag, so congrats( big pay, little work hopefully).

 

[brewer]

in the nfl the su winner covers like 85%, as well

 

[RetroVK]

thanks for this work, Kyle. Also today I noticed the moderator tag, so congrats( big pay, little work hopefully).

i got the little work part down ..... working on the big pay part still.

 

[Matador]

Using your numbers at the top, favorites overall went 95-85 SU. I'm no math genius, but I wouldn't need to do a hell of a lot more research to figure out that playing money lines would have been a lot better. Hell, just the difference between losing 110 vs 100 practically makes up the W/L margin. You get an average of about +103 on your ML and it would work out about the same. Question is, how representative are last year's results?

 

[pressitup]

Great work VK.

Nice Avatar....(chuckle).

Press

 

[broadwayjoe]

awesome shit kyle...i usually take both on a 4.5 or lower because i like the warm and fuzzy feeling one has when one has a fg in one's pocket...what a dickhead ive been

 

[RetroVK]

Great work VK.

Nice Avatar....(chuckle).

Press

just for that i cheer for midland lee from now on.

 

[RetroVK]

awesome shit kyle...i usually take both on a 4.5 or lower because i like the warm and fuzzy feeling one has when one has a fg in one's pocket...what a dickhead ive been

i have been a dickhead about it too .... but it sure feels good when you have the field goal and are ahead six near the end of the game and the other team is driving .. saves a possible heart attack.

and i forgot that i am not talking to you right now.

 

[ddk997]

does this mean...Clemson -4.5 against Alabama should be solid

 

[RetroVK]

running totals ml ( 2-1 ) +1.75 , ATS ( 2-1 ) + 0.90 units , ml leads by 0.85 units


SMU +3.5 at Rice , smu +140 loses 56-27
the result is minus 1.00 units on ml and -1.10 units ATS

running totals ml ( 2-2 ) +0.75 , ATS ( 2-2 ) - 0.20. ML leads by 0.95

 

[RetroVK]

does this mean...Clemson -4.5 against Alabama should be solid

all it means is that historically you are better off laying the number with the favorite if you like them at this level ........and if you like the underdog at this level it is mathematically correct historically to play the ml and not take the points........ i still say cap out how you think it goes but this is usefel. .... and of course avoiding it the other way around.

 

[Pucks]

Great Info vegaskyle

 

[Hawaiiguy]

this is great stuff.....:cheers:

 

[pressitup]

just for that i cheer for midland lee from now on.

:new_shocked:

 

[broadwayjoe]

and i forgot that i am not talking to you right now.

hahahaha. if it makes you feel any better that and the scar under are the only things ive had right so far; been a rough start for me. at least our no play leans are cashing

 

[CharlieBX]

very interesting and good information kyle. if i may, does this go by the opening line or the closing line?

anyways...it would seem utah and alabama cashed that in today. very good find buddy.

 

[RetroVK]

very interesting and good information kyle. if i may, does this go by the opening line or the closing line?

anyways...it would seem utah and alabama cashed that in today. very good find buddy.

the researched data is based on closing line.

 

[HereWeGo]

Read this thread this morning and decided to say fuck it and Roll with the Tide ML....thank you for the research VK

 

[Marlo]

BUMP

I know Utah-Kentucky both won SU

 

[RetroVK]

running totals ml ( 2-2 ) +0.75 , ATS ( 2-2 ) - 0.20. ML leads by 0.95


utah +3 at michigan , utah +140 ml utah wins 25-23
the result is +1.40 units on the ml , ATS +1.00 units
running total is ml ( 3-2 ) + 2.15 units , ATS 3-2 +0.80 units. ml leads by 1.35 units.

alabama +4 neutral to clemson , alabama ml +145 , alabama wins 34-10
the result is +1.45 units on the ml, ATS +1.00 units
running total is ml 4-2 +3.60 units , ATS 4-2 +1.80 units. ml leads by 1.80 units.

fresnost +3.5 at Rutgers , fresno st +140 , Fresno st wins 24-7
the result is +1.40 units on the ml , ATS +1.00 units
running total is ml 5-2 +5.00 units , ATS 5-2 + 2.80 units. ml leads by 2.20 units

kentucky +3.5 at louisville , kentucky +135 ml , kentucky wins 27-2
the result is +1.35 units on the ml , ATS + 1.00 units
running total is ml 6-2 + 6.35 units , ATS 6-2 + 3.80 units. ml leads by 2.55 units

i think that is all of them , if i missed one please bring it to my attention. obviously the dogs at this level won a disproportionate amount of the games this week.

 

[buckeyeburritos]

I’m pretty sure I got all of the games so far, and the stats should be correct. The lines that are listed are the opening lines. In the games played where the spread is from .5 to 4.5 (6 out of the 50) games the spread came into play (12%). So far Home dogs (in this range) 7 out of 21 games (33.3%).

Away favorite lost outright 7
Away favorite won and covered 11
Away favorite won but did not cover 1
Away pushes 1
1 out of 21 (4.76%) the spread came into play

Home favorite lost outright 15
Home favorite won and covered 8
Home favorite won but did not cover 5
Home pushes 1
5 out of 29 (17.2 %) the spread came into play

-2.5 points 1 time
-3 points 1 time
-3.5 points 1time
-4 points 3 times

Home Favorites :29 games
buffalo -3 W cover
Miami oh -2.5 L outright
Rice -3.5 W cover
Michigan -4 L outright
BG -4.5 L outright
Wyoming -3 L outright
Memphis -3 L outright
South Fla -3.5 W (no cover)
Baylor -2 W cover
Houston -4 L outright
Marshall -4 W (no cover)
UNC -1.5 L outright
Pitt -2.5 W (no cover)
FSU -4.5 L outright
Indiana -3.5 L outright
Utah St. -4.5 W cover
UNLV -4 W (no cover)
UL Lafayette -2.5 W cover
Louisville -3 L outright
ND -3 W cover
Washington -4.5 L outright
UNLV -3 L outright
Hawaii -3 Push
MTSU -3 W (no cover)
Missippi -3 L outright
Western Michigan -4 W cover
Michigan -2 L outright
Miami Fla -3 L outright
Wake -2 W cover

Home dogs: 21 games
Stanford +3.5 W outright
NM +3 L No cover
Fresno St L no cover
ND +2.5 W outright
Ohio L Push
Arkansas St +2.5 L no cover
Louisville +4 W outight
Colorado +3 W outright
Aurburn +2 L no cover
Navy +4 W outright
Texas AM +2.5 L no cover
UCLA +1.5 L no cover
Temple +3.5 L no cover
Wyoming +3.5 L no cover
UTEP +4.5 W outright
NM St. +4.5 L no cover
Marshall +3.5 L no cover
Vandy +4 W outright
Kent +4 L (cover)
UL Monroe +1 L no cover
FAU +3.5 L no cover

 

[RetroVK]

thanks buckeye. will scope this out more later.

 

[buckeyeburritos]

All these are opening lines. Home dogs highlighted.

This week
Michigan St/NW +3
South Carolina +1/Kentucky
East Carolina/Virginia +4.5
Iowa St/Baylor -4
Eastern Michigan/Army -2.5
Vandy/Mississippi St +1
Kansas St/Texas AM +3.5
BG/Akron +1.5
Ohio/Kent +2
Penn St/Wisconsin +4.5
LSU/Florida -4
MTSU/FIU -1

 

[buckeyeburritos]

Haven't really looked at BG/Akron, Ohio/Kent ST. So was wondering if anyone had feels for these games. Out of the home dogs, I think NW(+105), Miss St(+110), and Wisconsin (+200) have the best chance of winning SU. My only play on these today will probably be Wisconsin, unless someone has a good feel on Akron or Kent ST. Gonna go look at these games now.

 

[GWarner27]

great fucking post.