4/30

brewer

brewer

Fan Club of any and everyone good!
trying to read tom's lines and what the oddsmakers are trying to tell me. anybody care to help?
 
the dip in the lakers total for starters. is this overreaction to the last game?
 
The sequence in terms of totals in this Suns-Lakers series has been UNDER-OVER-UNDER-....

Tomorrow is going over and not just, its flying over. Hammer time..

This is what Amare said after Friday's shootaround:

“We've had two days to prepare. We feel confident about our strategy, We've got a few changes. We have to match their energy level. We've got to create some more fast-break points, up-tempo play.”

D'Antoni, “We've got to make sure we're the team with the energy,” he said. I don't know if we've ever won when we've scored 89 points. That's where we let down."


Biggest play of the post season for me tomorrow.

BOL
 
i noticed that too rod. im going to go check the boxscore and look up some trends.
 
I'd fancy OVER if anything, Steel, and that is b/c I like the Suns, and I think their offense will click on all cyclinders tom.
 
check this out ...

ATS Record When Scoring

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=dataheadc></TD><TD class=dataheadc colSpan=3>PHO</TD><TD class=dataheadc colSpan=3>LAL</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2 width=170>Points For</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Home</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Away</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Home</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Away</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Less than 80</TD><TD class=datacell>0-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-3-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-1-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-2-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>80 - 89</TD><TD class=datacell>0-3-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-1-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>4-7-0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-3-0</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>90 - 99</TD><TD class=datacell>2-10-1</TD><TD class=datacell>1-5-1</TD><TD class=datacell>1-5-0</TD><TD class=datacell>8-9-1</TD><TD class=datacell>4-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>4-7-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>100 - 109</TD><TD class=datacell>17-13-0</TD><TD class=datacell>10-7-0</TD><TD class=datacell>7-6-0</TD><TD class=datacell>12-16-1</TD><TD class=datacell>6-12-1</TD><TD class=datacell>6-4-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>110+</TD><TD class=datacell>26-13-0</TD><TD class=datacell>11-7-0</TD><TD class=datacell>15-6-0</TD><TD class=datacell>14-9-1</TD><TD class=datacell>6-5-1</TD><TD class=datacell>8-4-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ATS Record When Allowing

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=dataheadc></TD><TD class=dataheadc colSpan=3>PHO</TD><TD class=dataheadc colSpan=3>LAL</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2 width=170>Points Against</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Home</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Away</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Home</TD><TD class=datahl2 width=70>Away</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Less than 80</TD><TD class=datacell>0-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-0-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>80 - 89</TD><TD class=datacell>9-4-0</TD><TD class=datacell>7-3-0</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1-0</TD><TD class=datacell>6-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>3-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>3-0-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>90 - 99</TD><TD class=datacell>13-8-1</TD><TD class=datacell>8-1-1</TD><TD class=datacell>5-7-0</TD><TD class=datacell>19-7-1</TD><TD class=datacell>7-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>12-5-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>100 - 109</TD><TD class=datacell>16-14-0</TD><TD class=datacell>7-11-0</TD><TD class=datacell>9-3-0</TD><TD class=datacell>9-14-1</TD><TD class=datacell>6-9-1</TD><TD class=datacell>3-5-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>110+</TD><TD class=datacell>7-13-0</TD><TD class=datacell>0-5-0</TD><TD class=datacell>7-8-0</TD><TD class=datacell>3-21-1</TD><TD class=datacell>0-10-1</TD><TD class=datacell>3-11-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
brewer said:
what did the total for game 3 open at?
Click to expand...


This is off the top of my head, will need to check my notes but:

Game 1 - 214.5 (UNDER)

Game 2 - 206.5 (OVER)

Game 3 - 211.5 (UNDER)

Game 4 - 205.5

It's pretty clear the books are just as clueless as everyone else in terms of what this total should be. All they are doing is just 'chasing' based on the previous game. If Game 4 flies over we will see something ridiculous like 213.5 back in Phoenix for Game 5.
 
i dont think the oddsmakers are setting this line. i think they set the game 1 line. but ever since then they are simply going off of the public perception of what happened in the last game.
 
I physically write down shit after each game I watch in a notebook. I didnt know how many people actually did that. It pays to be prepared!
 
I hear you w/ that. I was out of work for some time. And was able to basically bet NBA on a full-time basis. Its amazing how mcuch info you can retain when you put forth max effort.
 
brewer said:
i dont think the oddsmakers are setting this line. i think they set the game 1 line. but ever since then they are simply going off of the public perception of what happened in the last game.
Click to expand...


True - however what I posted above were the OPENING lines, hence these are before the sharps had a chance to attack them. The subsquent movements were fairly minimal, I think apart from game 3 where the total hit 209.5 from 211.5 being a 2 point diffferential (still going under) the movement from opening lines were not that materially different to what we saw just before tipoff

I'm sure BC can confirm or challenge my statement lol ;)
 
does anybody have access to sportsinsights and can update me with the % on the total? im pretty sure this is a public under.
 
Theres a site I posted here before with wire updates I cant find it right now. And I dont rem. it. On that site, you have free access to sportsbookspy.com
 
brewer said:
does anybody have access to sportsinsights and can update me with the % on the total? im pretty sure this is a public under.
Click to expand...

As of this moment, under is 59%

Pinny opened at 206.5 and now down to 205.5. Cris, BetUS and Matchbook hovering around the 206 flat and 205.5 mark
 
The above is people with the belief the Lakers will either win SU or at a miminum cover the +5.5 - IMO it's either a Suns ATS/OVER double or a Lakers ATS/UNDER double

It's a matter of determing who you believe will and have the ability to control the tempo for a sustained period of the game.
 
if we would have thought about it before this series. we should have parlayed lakers and under and suns and over in every game. we'd be up around 1.5 units on a 1 unit parlay.
 
Theres a few ways to interpret the info, and I really cant post that because I dont want to sway anyone in certain directions when they look at that. You really gotta do what works for u.
 
was not aware of this believe. have you tracked how the lvsc are in relation to other books numbers?
 
brewer said:
if we would have thought about it before this series. we should have parlayed lakers and under and suns and over in every game. we'd be up around 1.5 units on a 1 unit parlay.
Click to expand...

Its tough to parlay same game total and spreads though in NBA. So much is bound to happen.
 
With my minor experience running a local book, all I can say is I have a lot of confidence in Vegas oddsmakers. I get criticized on here sometimes when I say shit like "I feel bad for the books" when a certain outcome happens LOL!
 
im starting to get a feel for halftime lines or so i think. like i said im gonna start playing more of those.
 
HTs are much diff. in playoffs, than regular season. Regular season they are a joke and so predictable. Once you got a feel for them, you can call the lines before they even come out and just bet the movement based on your #. Books DO adjust HTs during reg. season though, but you easily readjust yourself in about a week or less.
 
im gonna start keeping a notebook like you do, as well. real good stuff in this thread.

what sort of things do you write down?
 
Everything really...even dumb stuff. Mainly team styles of play, depth of teams. strengths/weaknesses. After wtaching a lot of games, you can pretty much run off team info off your head.

I'll also write down total scores and shit and how the stats relate to the score.

I dunno, anything you feel is important info that you might not rem or be able to get off a website.
 
Quick example: I watched Toronto closely at the end of season b/c I didnt get a chance to earlier. I noticed their transition D was hoorendous down the stretch. And I knew theyd struggle against NJ b/c they started running down the stretch.

SO simple stuff like that that you notice.
 
Grant it, the series is still live, but I think NJ should win that series. And I might throw down a series bet on NJ vs. Clev! Maybe...
 
Honestly, I dunno if its worth all the work, unless you really like doing it, or unless your making signficant profits (like salary-type figures) LOL.
 
I dont think any1 can win in gambling sports unless they invest A LOT of time and effort. It just leads to addiction really.
 
might help me down the line and in trading. just gonna try and track lines more so than teams.
 
You can cash early in the year if you really know the squads. Mid-year is a total crap shoot. You could honestly just fade the square bets mid-season and probably hit over 53%. Then end of season, just play the spots no matter what the lines. Its not hard to bet NBA. Its just a matter of self-control & money management, and trying to overcome addiction I guess.
 
i feel sports betting is nothing more than a numbers game. knowing when to buy a number or when to sell it, deciphering what oddsmakers are doing by setting a line a certain way, and understanding the psychology of the public.

enough chat tho on this. dunno if this thread in the nba forum is the place for it.
 
Yea your right. Its very much like stocks.

I dont really care if this is in forum or PM. No one else is posting this late, and it gives the forum activity, so it doesnt matter.

Im really high right now though, and tomorrow Ill probably reads the post and wonder why I typed so much on the forum. But I dont care really right now.

I smoked some Kine Bud.
 
gonna give my two full game leans and then im heading off to bed.

phoenix / LA lakers O 205.5
dallas -3

im out.
 
Nice thread you guys have here.

I agree that taking notes and basically keeping a record of your bets and other info will help you win in the long run. I have a record of all the bets that I make,the amount of my wager, my winnings, and such. I also try to track results from certain system plays that I try out. Basically, this is my first full year of wagering. I started last year with NFL and now moving with NBA , NHL, MLB, and other sports. I don't think I'm addicted as I've kept a pretty good tab of my account. I know I'm in the red now but I've managed to gain some ground. Hopefully, as I learn more about the sports and how to cap these games plus with what I'm learning from this site, I'll be able to break even and maybe (hopefully) earn extra dough by the end of the NBA season.

That will be an accomplishment for me.

Yup, I'm playing the under in the Phoenix-Los Angeles game. Still thinking about Miami and Dallas.

Peace!!!
 
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