4/30 - Monday Bases

[E.T.G.]

36-27-2 +$1675.92

New week, fresh thoughts. Last wk is out of memory.. Lets get this started with current thoughts.

Cubs / Pirates / Under

I don't have a line on this game yet and I am not really sure who is pitching tomorrow for the Cubs since BJ has Hill listed, Covers matchup has Lilly pitching which I think is wrong because of the game being PPD today and Pinny doesn't have the game on the board yet.. Anyway here are the thoughts and the lean without a line is the Under and Hill pitching for the Cubbies, this could change if they throw something like 7 out there, which I am not expecting.

Duke vs. Cubs Career: 4-1, 1.4era, 45ip, 39h, 22k, 8bb
Duke this yr: 1-2, 6.92era, 26ip, 38h, 6k, 5bb
Duke Last 3: 0-2, 10.38era, 13ip, 24h, 1k, 4bb
Duke at Home: 0-1, 8.0era, 9ip, 13h, 1k, 3bb

Cubs vs. Duke: Barrett (.000 in 10ab), Cedeno (.438 in 16ab), Floyd (.00 in 5ab), Izturis (.300 in 10ab), Jones (.000 in 6ab), Lee (.231 in 13ab), Murton (.529 in 17ab), Ramirez (.200 in 15ab), Soriano (.400 in 5ab), Theriot (.125 in 8ab)

Cubs vs. LHP: .218 overall, .259 in L10

Hill vs. Pirates Career: 1-0, 1.26era, 14.1ip, 9h, 20k, 4bb
Hill this yr: 3-1, 1.57era, 28.2ip, 14h, 23k, 10bb
Hill on Road: 2-0, 15ip, 1er, 5h, 13k, 3bb

I am not showing data on current Pirates hitters vs. Hill but I would imagine that they haven't been too successful since he has a 1.26era in 14.1ip.

Pirates vs. LHP: .246 overall, .229 in L10

Weather: Should be a pretty clear night around 55 during the game. I am showing a light wind blowing out to left at 5-10mph.

Umpire: Taken from CKR thread.. Ump should be Bell (61.35% strike percentage in a small sample of 1game?)

Trends:

<LI class=more>Under is 29-11 in Pirates last 40 home games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Duke's last 5 home starts. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Duke's last 6 starts vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Duke's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2-1 in Duke's last 9 starts overall.


Thoughts: Duke this yr has not been great, that would be an understatement however his last start is encouraging vs. Houston (W, 7ip, 6h, 1er, 1k, 1bb). Duke isn't a power pitcher he gets outs from balls that are put in play so there is the good and bad in that. However, his career #'s vs. the Cubs are nice to see and really should not be overlooked here. The other side of the coin is that Torres gets hit pretty good by the Cubs so anything close to the total is def. never safe with these two teams and their respective bullpens. If the Cubs throw Hill out there than I would expect him to bounce back from his previous start, still I would like to see him walk a few less batters a game. If his curveball is on than he will be able to stump the Pirate hitters all night.

More to come

 

[frankiegotti]

gl

 

[E.T.G.]

DBacks -108 / Dodgers -102

A line on the move here as it was DBacks +100 a little earlier. Odd because those stupid consensus things show 66% on LAD, I guess thats the cats with no money on the game.

My interest in this game is sparked because of the Dodgers 17inning game on Sunday. Although this game is at 10:10, factoring fatigue is not weighted that much..However, as far as bullpen usage goes, the Dodgers obviously wanted to win that game and they put the bullpen to work.

Broxton =1.2ip, Tsao = 2ip, Seanez = 2ip, Saito = 2ip, Billingsley = 2ip

Webb this yr: 1-1, 3.6era, 35ip, 28h, 31k, 7bb
Webb last 2: 0-0, 16ip, 13h, 3er, 19k, 3bb
Webb Career vs. LAD: 5-3, 3.62era, 64ip, 53h, 57k, 21bb

Dodgers vs. Webb: Betemit (.00 in 4ab), Ethier (.333 in 3ab), Furcal (.417 in 12ab), Nomar (.000 in 7ab), Kent (.250 in 12ab), Liberthal (.111 in 9ab), Martin (.333 in 3ab), Pierre (.352 in 17ab)

Wolf this yr: 3-2, 4.2era, 30ip, 28h, 31k, 7bb
Wolf last 3: 2-1, 4.5era, 18ip, 18h, 23k, 3bb
Wolf Career vs. DBacks: 4-1, 3.5era, 54ip, 49h, 48h, 23bb

DBacks vs. Wolf: Byrnes (.500 in 2ab), Clark (.200 in 5ab), Tracy (.333 in 3ab)

DBacks vs. LHP: .223 overall, .246 L10
LAD vs. RHP: .266 overall, .277 L10

DBacks on Road: 6-6
LAD at Home: 6-6

Series this yr: 2-0 LAD (6-4W, 5-1W both games in Arizona)

Thoughts: You can throw Wolf's career numbers out the window in this game, this Arizona team is not even close to the same team he has ever seen, they are a hell of a lot younger. This can work 2 ways of course. Webb to me is starting to resemble the pitcher who was tops in the NL last yr. While he is 0-0 in his last 2 starts, he has given up 3er, 19k, 3bb, and 13h. Run support however has been a problem for the DBacks with Webb on the mound and overall as a team they have not been very explosive. The Dbacks are however 4-1 in Webb's 5 starts this yr as a team and are currently riding a 4game winning streak. The Dodgers return home after a 17inning win over NL West rival San Diego and are just 1-5 in their last 6 games. As mentioned before the bullpen was used for a long time in that game and I expect that to become a very important factor in tomorrows game because this will not be a blowout by any means. My current lean is to the DBacks but this line is on the move pretty quick so its going to have to be a decision tonight on this game because I am not willing to risk it tomorrow as I don't really expect the price to come down much.

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks Gotti - GL to you as well...

Out of the slate for Monday, these are the only two games I have an interest in and will prob narrow it down to 1 play.

Best of Luck to all

 

[E.T.G.]

Possible lean on the Mets Over if it comes down to 9, more on that game 2mrrow..


Basic thoughts here..

Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6.
El Duque was scheduled to pitch but will not since he his shoulder is bothering him
Pelfry will make the start instead.
Ricky Nolasco will be making his 1st start this yr and has no success vs. Mets
Wind is blowing out at 15-20mph tomorrow

Line is 9.5 +110 right now and that is with Olsen and El Duque so no point in even trying to bet this right now since its listed pitchers.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

damn...my over is a no play them, as i had the lsited SPs as Olsen and El Duque...knowing that he wasn't 100%.

anyhow, luv the D'Backs tomorrow. Really like the Bucs too, but can't get a line tonight.

 

[Santacapper]

Great stuff ETG. GL

 

[E.T.G.]

Yanks - Should be interesting with the pitching in the Mets game. Going to have to be around the computer near gametime in case there is a change. There are 20mph winds expected blowing out in this game..

Santa - Best of luck to you

Webb is -110 now at BJ, really would like to see this line come down

Cubs O/U is 8 and well I am not surprised. I think its a decent number and really I expect a pitcher duel somewhat in the area of 4-2, 3-1.. Wind is blowing out to right center at 10mph according to weather.com

Still no plays, got a test at 12:30 hopefully after that some lines have moved and not against what I want to play

 

[E.T.G.]

Marlins +152 - Action bet --- $300 to Win $456

I am taking a shot here for now, just to lock this line in. I don't think El Duque pitches today and so I don't think the line is +152 after he is scratched. I will hedge out of this bet by gametime if the circumstances change but this is an action play on the Marlins..

I am still looking at the Over in the game but that is a "listed pitchers" play

 

[E.T.G.]

Mets Over 9.5 --- $575 to Win $500

Wind is blowing out at 20mph. Chan Ho Park is pitching. Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6. This was one of my original plays, still undecided on my Marlin bet but I have to favor Olsen of Park here. I am expecting more than 10runs here.

 

[Satyr]

good luck on that test ETG. :shake:

I like the Snakes as well, after all it's Webb we're talking about and the Dodgers played a looong game last night. Plus Betemit is out if I'm not mistaking. GL buddy.

:shake: :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks Satyr - Test went well, think the Prof was giving us a gift.

Some more Mets notes:

Park was 3-1 with a 7.29 ERA in four starts with the Zephyrs, allowing 26 hits in 21 innings -- including six homers.

Still showing Wind blowing out to right at 20mph and "heavy"

I am going to let the Marlins bet ride..Worst thing that could happen tonight is Chan Ho Park pitching a gem and the game going under while the Mets win.

Still undecided on the Cubs/Pirates under, the over is 7-0 in the last 7 these two teams have played. Wind is blowing out at the stadium as well.

Webb's price continues to climb and I am not happy, most likely unless it comes back under -110 I won't be playing also this game is at 10:00 so I will let my other games play first.

Best of Luck to everyone

 

[E.T.G.]

Marlins +152 - Action bet --- $300 to Win $456
Mets Over 9.5 --- $575 to Win $500

Thats the final card for tonight, hate having all my money in one game but the over I felt very strong about and the Action play I had to grab with El Duque getting scratched..

I feel like I am bitching out on this Cubs/Pitt Under but something just won't let me pull the trigger..That would have been the only other play tonight

I also won't be on Webb since he is priced out of the range I had last night (-115 right now)..

Lets win some money guys

:cheers:

 

[jimbo1227]

damn green, ur the fuckin man and other than sportsnut my fav guy to tail so lets do this shit, so we can smoke som good shit after

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL green, on the over as well but still 0-0 in the 2nd.