4.3

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
As of this time I am down -0.57 Units on Monday cause I have no balls and hit all of my leans. Late nite pending: LAA -141 {2.5 units} & Over 8.5 +100 {2.5units}



4/2 +8.33 u
4/3 -0.57 u ( only 5-0 on leans):hairout:


This will be just leans / thoughts:

Orioles +120 / Under 9.5 :

The big reason why is I like how Cabrera has transformed since his late season demotion. He came to Spring ready and has been excellent since. Bonser has been equally impressive as well though. Cabrera has a very good track record vs MINNY & dont overlook Bonsers impressive 4-1 2.63 ERA Sept of 2006.

Daniel Cabrera (R) Previous Starts vs. Minnesota

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>9/22/06</TD><TD class=datacell>MIN</TD><TD class=datacell>7-3</TD><TD class=datacell>104/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.2</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>118 </TD><TD class=datacell>17.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>6/10/06</TD><TD class=datacell>@ MIN</TD><TD class=datacell>9-7</TD><TD class=datacell>-107/10.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>106 </TD><TD class=datacell>17.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.40</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>7/19/05</TD><TD class=datacell>@ MIN</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4</TD><TD class=datacell>-103/9</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.1</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>106 </TD><TD class=datacell>19.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>5/9/05</TD><TD class=datacell>MIN</TD><TD class=datacell>3-0</TD><TD class=datacell>-130/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>11</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>110 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.8 </TD><TD class=datacell>3.33</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>9/18/04</TD><TD class=datacell>@ MIN</TD><TD class=datacell>12-3</TD><TD class=datacell>155/9</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>96 </TD><TD class=datacell>16.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.88</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>9/6/04</TD><TD class=datacell>MIN</TD><TD class=datacell>4-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-125/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.1</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>109 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.38</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


SFG -120 : Mostly cause of Zito . Dont like Peavy away from Petco that much and SD offense still doesnt scare me. Barry Bonds though I stand in AWE of !

Under 8.5 Wash & Fla : Olsen is another quality LH like Willis. I dont see much success from Wash vs LHP unless Kearns and Zimmerman do all the damage. Shawn Hill was very good in all 3 of his HOME 2006 starts and has impressed all spring long.....might be a better spot to gamble on WASH as well...

Pirates +160 : cant see now that HOU lost it 's others aces and has visible questions in the pen how they are that much better then Pitt...Jennings has struggled in his turns vs Pitt though mostly away.....

Cardinals -105 : getting a team like STL @ home for even money is hard to ignore. El Duque probably cant get past 6 and we saw what middle relief looked like for NY. Further hurting the Mets could be the fcat El Duque faced ATL on 3/23 though have to look at the lineups from then. Wells has been the Spring sensation now that he is healthy again. Being a former Pirate he has some familairity facing NYM.

Rockies -130 : Not a big fan of Livan but he hasnt been fairly soldi vs Colorado and at Coors. Francis though has been real solid vs Zona and with more LHB added to the mix I see that as a huge edge for the home SP



Thats it for now the games I didnt mention really dont have an opinion on yet. If anything Iowuld be thinking about the dogs..

More to follow....Good Luck and go LAA & OVER:cheers:
 
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Thanks for the thoughts SportsNut......

Like Pittsburgh tomorrow as I think Snell has good stuff and is underrated in general.

Lean toward Milwaukee and Florida as well.
 
keep a season record SportsNut !!! i like Daniel Caberea and Elvin Sanatana my fav pitchers
 
have a question for ya.

today i played the kc game. my intuition told me KC was the play and i went through with it (also had some stuff i found in research). BUt i saw that they were getting +1.5 at -110 so i took that instead of them on the moneyline at +155.

do you recommend taking the +1.5 if you like a dog at the -110 price or do you just stick to the juicy moneyline? or both?

also where do i find those -1.5 lines on the dogs that you are playing?


* sorry if these seem a bit preschoolish
 
thecakeoff said:
keep a season record SportsNut !!!
Click to expand...

I'll keep track of my units...Wins and losses are to complicated to be 100% accurate. You have to break down favs and dogs follwoed by units subsets...I'll have over two thousand plays...I'do the Fondy where I post the day with units won or lost...
 
brewer said:
have a question for ya.

today i played the kc game. my intuition told me KC was the play and i went through with it (also had some stuff i found in research). BUt i saw that they were getting +1.5 at -110. so i took that instead of them on the moneyline at +155.

do you recommend taking the +1.5 if you like a dog at the -110 price or do you just stick to the moneyline?
Click to expand...

Sort of a simple guideline is this. Everything trades on a spread. That KC spread I would quote as 65 cents...u learn this stuff but thats fairly cheap. The avg is around 80 cents. Now the spread tends to change based on the likelyhood that the 1 run comes into play. So a smaller spread more unlikely where a higher spread more likely......

Its early more of a guessing game but I wont take +1.5 lines with small spreads....
 
On the Marlins, Giants, and Pirates. Agree with the Rockies as well. Good info on Cabrera, could be a nice play for you. BOL SN
 
Yeah sometimes it's tough to play all your leans out, how bout them Brewers' though!? No plays coming from my way yet in the MLB. But I will be posting some in the near future hear. Good Luck this season Nut. Will be looking forward to some good advice.!
 
Three quick points:

1) Alot of talk about Kip Wells. All negative. Overlooked is he is a former 1st Round pick who just is about to turn 30. He was rushed to the majors with CHI drafted in 6/98. In the majors by 8/99 he went 4-1 and minus 1 awful start his ERA was 2.25!! At 23 he was in Chi rotation by 25 he was a Pirate. In his 1st 2 years he was 22-23 with a 3.43 ERA in just shy of 400 innings. How is this guy chopped liver? The last 3 years the stats are ugly but he has battled health issues all the way through. I am just saying this guy still has some upside..healthy , good arm and good pitching coach. Why cant he be that 3.50 ERA guy. He has pitched alot of good games past 3 years they are offset by the awful ones...

2: Alot of people discounting Shawn Hill. Look at his 3 home starts in 2006 and his work this spring. Not endorsing the Nats but how is this line that much different then todays..

3: Tread lightly with Milw. You have Caouano with bad luck vs LAD and teh Dodgers known in the past for hitting LHP. Factored with a LH throwing against them...Billy Hall is theer power RHB...

BOL all. Get back to everyone tmrw...I am exhausted
 
April 4th



Play (LOCKED IN):
Giants +100 {4.5units} ARL -1.5 +200 {1/2unit}
Lean UNDER (especially if we see 8)

SD @ SFG:

Looking at the changes to both teams SF seems to have gained some minor edges here. They have the former SD manager Bruce Bochy running the show as well as there leadoff hitter Dave Roberts. They acquired LHP Barry Zito thru free agency in the winter and SD lost two key bats vs LHP in Piazza (.359 8hrs) and Barfield (.331 7hrs).

Some things that stand out for Jake Peavy are :

1: His performance @ AT&T Park:

2006: 18.2Inn 22H 12R 12ER 0Hr 6BB 9K 5.79ERA 1.50WHIP .293BAA in 3 starts.( 1 bad start , 1 below avg start and good start)

Career: 10st 6W 4L 63.0Inn 67H 30R 29ER 5HRr 22BB 41K 4.14ERA 1.41WHIP .271BAA

2: His day splits and road splits :
In Day starts he had 5.65 ERA 1.44 WHIP and .262 BAA in 12 starts(4-6). On the road 4.55 ERA , 1.35 WHIP , .257BAA. For his career he is 4.61 day ERA compared to 3.10 at nite as well as 4 road ERA compared to 3.07.

Like most SP they are clearly better at home but for someone of Peavy's talent the gap is to wide. Which leads me to the following in a certain context Peavy is overrated based on performance where Zito is underrated. Peavy has 2 really good seasons and 3 with ERA's slightily above 4. There were some injury problems last year (again) so we have to keep that in mind. What I am getting at is usllay you overpay for Peavy on the road when he isnt typically lights out and his team is average. FOr instince last 2 meetings SD with Peavy -110(avg) vs Matt Cain. I love Cain but I doubt at the present time if he is worth more then Barry Zito. Well SD lost twice and has a tougher matchup facing a LHP. Truth is Cain should be favored over Peavy which means so should Zito...

The Padres are a team that doesnt overly impress me. There lineup is one question mark after another IMO. As I mentioned earlier they lost their two top hitters vs LHP in Piazza .359 8hrs and Barfield .331 7hrs. That means Bard and Gonzalez are there top threats vs LHP. Bard still has to show me he can do it for a full season and Gonzo can rake but not a big fan of the LH vs LH. The rest of the lineup has inconsistencies and struggles. Marcus Giles hit just .229 vs LH but is .285 career mostly due to EXTREME inconsistencies. His brother a LHB hit .217 , Cameron the #3 hitter .252 last season , Greene 271. That leaves the young stud but unproven Kouzmanoff who was just 2/12 in limited ab's vs LH and Sledge who is LH and .247 career vs LHP. So while Zito at times has struggles with LHB (seems every other year which is good for 2007) and his Day splits are slightily worse then his nite splits I dont see Peavy as having the edge here.

Factor in Bruce Bochy right out of the gates is trying to get revenge on his former team. I mean come on who lets there successful manager go straight to another divisional rival?? Thats a slap in the face and you would think he knows the ins and outss of the team after 12 years and being a virtual SD lifer! Peavy will have to face FOUR LHB at the top of the order with pesky duo of ex-Pod Dave Roberts and Vizquel , followed by the rejuvanated Barry Bonds. Aurilia may not be the poster boy for offense but he smoked the ball in the 2nd H last season and it wasnt due to his home park . Molina has good day numbers and Winn is a better option then Sledge in the 8 spot.

The weak point for SFG is clearly the pen. With some converted ( my word is failed) SP(Correia , Hennessey) as setup guys as well as Chulk. I like the fact that despite Barry Zito signing for mega bucks he took the time to add 10 pounds to his lower body to increase velocity and worked on a new windup. He is showing he is trying to get better and not complacent...Bonds is locked IN and healthy unlike last opening Day. Peavy has lost 3 of 4 @ SFG (and his PODS didnt hit 0 , 1 and 2 runs)while SFG won 11 of the last 13 H2H meetings last season. You would think Zito's freshness is a plus since Peavy has faced SF so many times in recent years.

SD was just 6-11 on the road vs LHP.

NOTE:
Jose Cruz replaces Terrell Sledge which is of no suprise but I wasnt sure earlier. Cruz is basically a poor mans version of randy winn . he does hit well vs the RH side since he is a natural RHB(SWH) but vs Zito only 2-19 career with 8 K's...

Also the total is acting funny again very similiar to yesterdays KC game...8.5 now @ Pinny...8's elsehwere...looking closely at this...

Also realize there were ZERO games decided by 1 RUN yesterday!!!!


The rest of the card is later with only 1 start before 8 PM. So be back with more later as well as lock in the SFG plays.....

Good Luck!:cheers:
 
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This Giants pregame is awesome. Wind is listed as blowing OUT to RF at 10 MPH and from what I see it looks that way....flags blwoing straight out to right...

Thanks Bets , Brewer , believe , JPicks , the farm : Good Luck today.

You guys either know that I love this game and love to write about it Or will find out in the upcoming months (time permitting) how much I do....

:cheers:
 
GL with the play. I keep going back and forth on it, and decided on the under. I don't like the Pads lineup, but I don't particularly like the Giants lineup either.
 
shakes said:
Argh...as soon as I put it in, I see your post where the wind is blowing out.
Click to expand...


MLB.com is helpful . I like the under I wont play the over based on movement just dont want to buy some fool's gold if you know what I mean...

Still might play it..have 5 minutes...GL:cheers:
 
One things for sure. I dont like hearing how amped up Zito was for this start. With comments like he looked like he was going to throw 'his' game during long toss....
 
Well if anything that was an exciting first inning. Bonds looks a little excited today.
 
Zito not looking that good. Walking the 8th batter with the bases jacked is just inexcusable.
 
Tonite (-3.50 units early and -11.80 early nite couple pending)


Rockies -130 {3.85units}( just risking an even 5 units) +3.85
Over 10 -110 {2.50units} -2.75

Basically Livan tends to be a slow starter and his miserable Spring seems to imply that trend continues. This COL team hit him fairly hard last year . His philosophy is throws strikes and his hit total will be high and so will his BAA. However can you explain Todd Helton 's .520+ career avg....yikes!!

Francis well we all know about his track record vs Zona. Dont be fooled though there has been changes in Zona . The corner OFs are gone Green and Gonzo replaced basically by Young and Hairston both RHB. So dont overrely on old stats. He still pitched very well vs Zona late in last season but maturity has to be factored in.

Helping the over is Culbreth behind the dish and so-so pens.

Cardinals -107 {4.65units}(same deal risking flat 5 units) -1.5 RL +180 {1unit} Net -6.00

There is not much to go on right here. Two solid lineups who both hit RHP well. Just with El Duque's setbacks this Spring not sure how game ready he is for the start of the season. He faced STL twice this Spring so to say he never faced them IMO is inaccurate. That could work in the Cards favor seeing him so many times in a short period. He was solid for watered down Cards lineups. Kip Wells isnt chopped liver IMO. As JPicks said LaRussa didnt make this guy his #2 for no reason...Clearly he has been a mess past 3 years but lets chalk that up to health issues. Before that he was solid for 2 season pitching for the Pirates. He had a terrific spring and Dave Duncan to straighten him out. He is a former #1 Draft Pick to boot who still hasnt turned the Big 3-0! Eck and Kennedy have faced El Duque before going 11 for 28.

Pirates +160 {3 units } -1.5 ARL +210{1/2unit}(want better though)Net +4.30


Jennings has no career success vs Pitt 1-5 6.11 ERA , struggled mightily when facing Houston @ Minute Maid now his nhome park and tends to start slow in April ...last year above 6 and 2 season ago above 10 + ERA! Throw is his struggles vs LHB....

Snell is an upcoming youngster who had some solid games late last season and the ended 3 spring with 3 straight scoreless outings. He pitched well on teh road last season including his 1 start @ Minute Maid. His downfall is against LHB and Houston still sports alot of RH sticks...

Want to play this on the ARL as well if I get a good price should be +230 ish...

Its hard to not believe that Pitt doesnt have the edge in the pen. Looking at the over will get involved at 8.5


Dodgers +125 {2.5units} ARL -1.5 +190 {1.5 units} Net -4.00

Basically this is a fade of MILW against LHP. Wolf seems healthy and I dont see much vs LH for Milw. Hart , Hall , Weeks and Hardy will have to show me something. Wolf was solid in 2005 vs Milw and his limited work in Miller. On the flip LAD can be dangerous vs LHP. You have Kent , Martin and Nomar plus the youngster Kemp. Then factor in the new LHB Pierre and Gonzo who have had good success against Capuano in the past. Cappy has pitched well vs LAD but w/o much success. Thinking about an over...However with Hirschbeck behind the dish those are tough.....


Under 8.5 -110 Washington {4.5units} -4.95
Nats ARL -1.5 +240 {1unit} -1.00

Played yesterday and the angle I had wong was Patterson's presence. Hill pitched very well in his 3 home starts last year . how bout 20 Inn 15 H 4 earned 7BB 9 K Ohrs...that was only versus LAD ,Philly and NYY! This Spring he pitched himself into the #2 slot . Naturally they dont have many options but he pitched well for anyone. Olsen is at his best vs LHB , on the road and a nite....looking for a 4-3 game...



Orioles +120 {2.5units} -1.5 RL +175 {1.25units} Net -3.75
Under 9.5 +100 {2.5 units} +2.50

Dont discount Bonser. That part is suprising me . Minny was so good at home and Balt so bad away and yet seems everyone is discounting the Twinkies here...odd fo sure

Bottomline is I expect both guys to pitch well here


Look at the late games later only like OAKLAND so far....:cheers:
 
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Shakes: He was pretty decent today. I think SF has hit a few balls hard just right at someone. SD find some holes and benefited from shaky defense by SF...not sure why Durham wasnt playing Gonzalez more to pull that ground out would have been 2 and changed the complexion of the inning. Bottomline is Peavy is throwing well and he is making life tough....obviously I'll take a split...BOL

JPicks- Great to see him healthy..

jimbo- Early on the sports packages are free on Direct TV...

Euros: yeah I have been just posting then hiding...been busy...Good Luck bro!

Satyr- Thanks and if you do dabble BOL

 
BBs killing the total in washington, these pitchers with a 6-0 lead are nibbling with their pitches like gutless bums
 
Late nite :(-15.30 units so far)


Oakland A's +100 {3.5units} -1.5 RL +155 {2units}
Rangers +135 {3units} -1.5 +195 {1unit}

Good Luck...not catching any breaks today so far, wrong side of everything...:cheers:
 
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getting killed again today myself nut, pirates and o's had early hope, but looking like the oh so familiar inevitable close losses
 
xpression syst_m said:
getting killed again today myself nut, pirates and o's had early hope, but looking like the oh so familiar inevitable close losses
Click to expand...

Feel like I went from winning everything to losing everything in a blink. What can you do ...sometimes its nice to just be flat lucky and forget capping...every team I have taken has shit the bed on defense...every team...back on the horse.....

Had to take Florida -1.5 RL +110 already.....
 
JPicks said:
Gotta love the Astros bullpen. At least they can't blame this one on Lidge.
Click to expand...

That was so HELPFUL. Had early leads with LAD , Balt and Pitt all wasted away. Hit the best paying one but so disappointed that I took Balt...Twins just have such an edge at home.....best record and you pay -130...:cheers: Need to finish strong....
 
SN,
Do you think cold weather favors pitchers, hitters, or no significant effect on either? Thanks.
 
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