4/3 Tuesday Plays

Gorgolon Lives

Gorgolon Lives

The Reverend of CTG
No games for 4/2 Monday. I'll start the train with the Tuesday plays.

Heat -4 ** 2 Units (L) --- Middle pushed it

Major revenge angle here. Raptors crushed Miami as a 3 pt. home favorite on 3/28. The final score doesn't indicate how bad the effort was. The Heat are coming off a loss to Detroit on the road, but they fought hard. They led the game up until the 5min mark. Toronto has won and covered 3 straight. Miami sits .5 game back from Washington for 1st in the division, and essentially the #4 seed. Miami also sits 2 games back from Toronto for the #3 seed. The Heat control their own destiny. After today, the Heat have a tough game at Cleveland, but then face Boston, and a home and home with Charlotte. The final game of the season is HOME vs. Washington. With a win tonight, the Heat put themselves in a perfect spot to clinch AT LEAST the 4 seed if they win the season finale vs. Washington.

Cleveland Cavs -2 (Buy) **** 4 Units (W)

Cleveland is coming off a loss to Boston. Lebron will have a couple days of rest. T-Wolves just upset Orlando on the road in an OT thriller. They have to face a Cavs team now, who sit just .5 game up on Chicago for 2nd in the East. This is a CRUCIAL game for the Cavs...A must win. After today, they have a home game vs Heat, the next day travel to Washington, then travel to Detroit for 4/8, then come back home to face a NJ squad battling for a playoff spot. Cavs can't afford to drop 2 straight heading into this tough 4 game stretch.

San Antonio Spurs -13.5 1 Unit (W)

Nothing of importance here really. The Spurs effort in Indiana was flat out pathetic. I can understand a loss to a fighting Pacers team WITH O'neal, but O'neal didn't even play. They get a chance to beat the Sonics SILLY before the big Phx game on Thursday, and send a strong message to the Suns. The Spurs beat Seattle on the road by 41 on 3/25, and normally this isn't the spot I'd back this large of a favorite. But the Spurs MUST get back on track after the loss to Indy. And frankly, they didn't play too well the last 2 home games vs. New Orleans (a 4pt win) and Utah (9pt win, but a close game throughout). The Spurs is 3 games back from the Suns for #2 in the West, but they aren't out of the running yet. The Spurs have an easy schedule these last few games after Suns game, with the exception of Golden State, but that game is at home. The Suns still face the Lakers twice, and a game at Utah. San Antonio still has a shot at the 2 seed, and I expect max effort tonight.

Kings +7.5 ** 2 Units (W)

Leans:

Might play the Nuggets pending the line. Might also play the Pacers if O'neal is back. Gonna look at New Orleans if the books give out -3 there.


2H

Raptors -2 ** 2 units (middling Heat -4) (W)

Spurs -4 ** 2 Units (W)

Denver +3.5 (W)

Denver/Lakers UNDER 108.5 (W)
:cheers:
 
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no more betting on shit ass teams for me. teams i speak of that i have bet on that have burned my dollar ... minny, char, and sac.
 
brewer said:
no more betting on shit ass teams for me. teams i speak of that i have bet on that have burned my dollar ... minny, char, and sac.
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I'll be sticking to playoff teams myself. I'll also look for young teams with young players playing for contracts or spots next year. Like: Memphis, Atlanta, Portland, and Philly. But only when these teams are facing other bad teams!
 
i agree. learn from failure and move on. this is just my soph year in nba. so i have a lot to learn.
 
i like your reasoning on miami. i had that one circled after they got stomped on across teh border. all other games i have nothing on at the moment as far as thoughts go.
 
brewer said:
i like your reasoning on miami. i had that one circled after they got stomped on across teh border. all other games i have nothing on at the moment as far as thoughts go.
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Thanks, I'd say as of right now, my strongest play would be the Cavs. I really don't think we will see over 3 there.
 
Great early start for the April 3 games. No leans yet but after reading your write=up might take a look at Miami and Cleveland.

Thanks for the heads up.

Cheers!
 
I don't like Denver at all in this game. Yes, it's likely to be a public bet on the Lakers and for good reason. Denver has been playing terrible basketball and if Houston had to work over time to win at LA nothing makes me believe it's going to be easy for Denver to win. I think the line is too short on LAL. Should be about 4. I have a feeling you will see a correction. If you like Denver wait if you like the Lakers buy early. ML might turn out to be the real deal if you can get in real early. This is going to be a huge public bet on LAL and for once I like the public side.
 
Supersav said:
Wiz -1? too good to be true
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Butler is out and that's a huge loss for this team. I doubt I will be on a side here. But I am very AGAINST the Wizards. I believe they will be the worst team in this year's playoffs, and they will be out in a sweep no matter who they play.
 
handy said:
I don't like Denver at all in this game. Yes, it's likely to be a public bet on the Lakers and for good reason. Denver has been playing terrible basketball and if Houston had to work over time to win at LA nothing makes me believe it's going to be easy for Denver to win. I think the line is too short on LAL. Should be about 4. I have a feeling you will see a correction. If you like Denver wait if you like the Lakers buy early. ML might turn out to be the real deal if you can get in real early. This is going to be a huge public bet on LAL and for once I like the public side.
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Denver had a bump in the road there for a while, but their schedule in late March was atrocious. They went 1-5 to end March, but lost at the Bulls, at Toronto, beat Cavs on the road, lost to Pistons on the road (a game they shoulda won), lost to Seattle at home in a sandwich spot, and lost to Suns on the road. That is a TOUGH stretch of scheduling! Remember before this they DID have a 5 game win streak. They also are coming off a nice road win at Seattle, where AI and Melo took over down the stretch.
 
handy said:
I don't like Denver at all in this game. Yes, it's likely to be a public bet on the Lakers and for good reason. Denver has been playing terrible basketball and if Houston had to work over time to win at LA nothing makes me believe it's going to be easy for Denver to win. I think the line is too short on LAL. Should be about 4. I have a feeling you will see a correction. If you like Denver wait if you like the Lakers buy early. ML might turn out to be the real deal if you can get in real early. This is going to be a huge public bet on LAL and for once I like the public side.
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handy sometimes your to into the public side yesterday we were talking about Utah +6 that was a lot of points and you said you wouldnt bet it because there was 50% on them
 
Currently looking at Seattle first half and Griz. Actually willing to look at Toronto as well so not really seeing the games the same but Toronto is not offical and the other 2 are. GL
 
Raptors getting too much respect no one notices how bad they are on the road?and on the other hand Miami is a good ass home team since wade went down
 
thecakeoff said:
Raptors getting too much respect no one notices how bad they are on the road?and on the other hand Miami is a good ass home team since wade went down
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Very interested to see how the line moves. Like I said, I expected 6. Would love Raptors action. Line seems a little low to me.
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Very interested to see how the line moves. Like I said, I expected 6. Would love Raptors action. Line seems a little low to me.
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yeah i would love this play if theres at least 50% on the raptors would be a no brainer
 
why are we always so concerned with the public %'s?

sports betting is no different then the stock market. its about public perception and psychology not silly percentages. do you trust those %'s?

before the lines come out make your own lines. then once the lines come out compare your line to vegas line and go asking questions from there.

but then again thats how silly me makes me a dollar.
 
brewer said:
why are we always so concerned with the public %'s?

sports betting is no different then the stock market. its about public perception and psychology not silly percentages. do you trust those %'s?

before the lines come out make your own lines. then once the lines come out compare your line to vegas line and go asking questions from there.

but then again thats how silly me makes me a dollar.
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Backwards odds analysis. I usually play AGAINST a line that is OFF by what I think it is.

I.E. Denver: I like the play MORE at +2, than I did if it opened at what I THOUGHT it would, and that is 3.5.
 
Leaning on Seattle and Memphis here.

I like the fact that they are getting big spreads (Sea +14.5 & Memphis +9.5). Also factor in that they will be going up against teams that are already in the play-offs, San Antonio and Phoenix respectively. San Antonio beat Seattle senseless last time out and that is still fresh in the betting public's minds. Same thing can be said for Phoenix after they beat Dallas last time out by double -digits. I think both the Spurs and the Suns will be very public plays so I'm going to wait until the line moves more in the favor of these two under dog teams.

Cheers!!!
 
c.r.e.a.m. said:
Leaning on Seattle and Memphis here.

I like the fact that they are getting big spreads (Sea +14.5 & Memphis +9.5). Also factor in that they will be going up against teams that are already in the play-offs, San Antonio and Phoenix respectively. San Antonio beat Seattle senseless last time out and that is still fresh in the betting public's minds. Same thing can be said for Phoenix after they beat Dallas last time out by double -digits. I think both the Spurs and the Suns will be very public plays so I'm going to wait until the line moves more in the favor of these two under dog teams.

Cheers!!!
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In hindsight, with both Phoenix and San Antonio battling for the second seed in the west, I think both teams will go for a win tonight. I'm not so sure though if they can cover the spread. It's a toss up who will cover between Seattle and Memphis.

No plays for these two games.
 
James status is QUES. He should be announced after shoot-around. And that should come around mid-day. I already took -2 on a buy for large. I think he will play.

My book is offering Heat -4.5 here. I think I may buy that to 4, but I'm pretty sure the Raps should get some action, so this line might comedown.

I'm seeing people on Seattle tonight, and that line is dropping. Enough said there...Just gonna wait for the best possible #.

Denver now might get to 3.5 by tip time, so I'll wait.
 
So, I go to the Cleveland sports talk radio website, hoping to get some local early word on James. I turn it on, and C & C Music Factory is playing. I feel bad for the Cleveland locals. NOTHING like Philly sports radio!
 
LA sports radio isnt bad but I feel bad for clipper fans because the clipper stations still talk about Lakers.
 
believe,

check these scarjo avatars I got if you want one of them.
 
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