4/26 Bases

[scarf31]

1 Unit Underdogs (ML)= (22-12) +15.08 Units
1 Unit Underdogs (RL) =

1 Unit Favorites (ML) = (14-8) +5.04 Units<o></o>
1 Unit Favorites (RL) = (3-6) -2.14 Units

1 Unit Totals (Over) = (15-14-1) +0.88 Units<o></o>
1 Unit Totals (Under) = (3-7) -4.14 Units

2 Unit Totals (Over) = (1-4-1) -6.76 Units<o></o>
2 Unit Totals (Under) = (2-0) +4.00 Units

2 Unit Underdogs (ML) = (2-1) +2.16 Units<o></o>
2 Unit Favorites (ML) = (2-1) +1.84 Units

3 Unit Favorites (ML) = (0-1) -4.23 Units

Overall = (64-54-2) +11.73 Units

4/26 Plays

Over 9½ Atl/Cin (+103) (1/1.03) WIN
Cardinals (+115) (1/1.15) LOSS
Dodgers (-119) (1.19/1) LOSS
Giants (+101) (1/1.01) LOSS
Mariners (+126) (2/2.53) LOSS
Reds (+103) (1/1.03) WIN
Phillies (-105) (2.10/2) WIN
Under 9 SF/Arz (-106) (2.12/2) PUSH
Under 9 TB/Oak (-105) (1.05/1) WIN
Rangers (+107) (1/1.07) LOSS
Over 9 Tor/Chi (-106) (1.06/1) LOSS
Over 9½ NYY/Bos (-115) (2.30/2) LOSS
Red Sox (-115) (2.30/2) WIN

Big fan of today's card and think there are some good doggies slated for this afternoon. Got some more I'm waiting to get my price on, but this is gonna be my biggest card of the season.

As always, thoughts/criticism/discussion is welcome (either good or bad). Good luck everyone! :cheers: <!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

 

[Tito]

bol today scarf - like it

 

[sirwinzalot]

I would like to hear your reasoning on the over on the Cincinnati/Atlanta game. Jeff Nelson in one of the biggest under umpires in the game and he is behind the plate there.

 

[scarf31]

Winz,

Fair point about Nelson. While I agree traditionally he is definitely an under umpire and I bet his under in his last NL plate appearance (Peavy/Cain), IMO with 2 average pitchers with high WHIPs in a ballpark that is a bandbox, the over is the better play.

The way I try to cap games is to predict how I think the game is going to develop. I don't think with 2 pitchers on the hill with poor WHIPs, that it is unreasonable to have a 3-3 or a 4-3 game heading into the 7th inning, where I believe that Cincinnati has the advantage as their bullpen has been much better so far this year.

On the other hand, Atlanta's pen has been putrid with a .292 BAA and a 1.77 WHIP. They can't make up their mind about their closer and Cox doesn't have a single pitcher he can trust.

All in all, I capped this game as a Reds win 6-4, 7-5......somewhere in that range. I'm not a believer in Kawakami and he may have to stay out on the mound longer today simply b/c Atlanta bp sucks and Cox doesn't want to go to them. In my mind, that's a spot where a pitcher who hasn't shown the greatest control could get into problems in a bandbox like Cincinnati, with a team full of lefty bats that really haven't contributed that much (amazingly) in this clubs decent start. A pitcher like this is a guy who could get into trouble on the road in a launching pad like Cincy.

 

[scarf31]

Reds (+103) (1/1.03)
Phillies (-105) (2.10/2)
Mariners (+119) (1/1.19)

 

[scarf31]

Under 9 SF/Arz (-106) (2.12/2)

 

[scarf31]

Under 9 TB/Oak (-105) (1.05/1)

 

[scarf31]

Rangers (+107) (1/1.07)
Over 9 Tor/Chi (-106) (1.06/1)
Mariners (+134) (1/1.34)

I added another unit with the Mariners as I don't see why the price jumped 15 cents. LAA is one of the worst teams in MLB vs. lefties and Seattle is playing well right now. Also, Washburn is pitching extremely well right now. I'll reflect both 1 unit plays as a 2 unit play and compile the wager in the first thread.

 

[Bailey81]

Great looking card today Scarf. Really in agreement on a lot of the plays...seeing things similarly lately. :smiley_acbe:


Keep up the good work. Here's to a winning Sunday and a good close to the week. :cheers:

 

[scarf31]

Go fuck yourself Brian Wilson.

Over 9½ NYY/Bos (-115) (2.30/2)
Red Sox (-115) (2.30/2)

 

[Coolslaw1]

BOL to you

 

[CapTwo]

Go fuck yourself Brian Wilson.

Over 9½ NYY/Bos (-115) (2.30/2)
Red Sox (-115) (2.30/2)

Im fucking sick over here too. What an asshole.

Facing the bottom of the order of the joke dbacks lineup with all sub .200 hitters and he gives up a fukcing HR to justin upton of all people.

Keep waiting for zona to walk this off but now theyre going to be deuchebags and were going to be stuck until some gas can comes in from the pen and blows up.

Were not even going to push. Were going to lose

 

[scarf31]

Cap,

We're god damned Jets fans....we're used to getting fucked in the ass. LOL.

But seriously, the way I look at it is simple. Good capping, bad luck. If luck weren't involved in sports betting, this shit would be easy. It's going to happen. Just hoping the Giants push across one run for a slight win b/c I got double fucked having Giants ML and a 2u bet on the Under.

 

[scarf31]

Wanted to throw out a bit of reasoning for my 2u plays on the Red Sox and the over. The over is obvious, b/c of yesterday's high scoring game and the bullpens being completely overused (and overrated). But the Red Sox play is tough for me to swallow as a Yankees fan, but I believe is the right play. Pettitte faced Boston twice last year in key spots and absolutely took a dump in both outings. Complete and total garbage performances. Andy Pettitte is a pitcher that looks like a great play, but is not as dominant as his numbers may seem. He feasts off of bad teams, he hasn't pitched a big game against a good team in ages and will fade in the 2nd half. I really like both of my night game plays here.

Best of luck everyone.

Updated Record Following Games of 4/26

1 Unit Underdogs (ML)= (23-15) +13.11 Units
1 Unit Underdogs (RL) =

1 Unit Favorites (ML) = (14-9) +3.85 Units<o></o>
1 Unit Favorites (RL) = (3-6) -2.14 Units

1 Unit Totals (Over) = (16-15-1) +0.85 Units<o></o>
1 Unit Totals (Under) = (4-7) -3.14 Units

2 Unit Totals (Over) = (1-5-1) -9.06 Units<o></o>
2 Unit Totals (Under) = (2-0-1) +4.00 Units

2 Unit Underdogs (ML) = (2-2) +0.16 Units<o></o>
2 Unit Favorites (ML) = (4-1) +5.84 Units

3 Unit Favorites (ML) = (0-1) -4.23 Units

4/26 Plays = (5-7-1) -2.49 Units

Overall = (69-61-3) +9.24 Units