4/25 - The losing stops now

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
32-23-2 +$2281.69

I am now 6-9 over my last 15 games.. Seriously don't know what I am doing wrong so I am going back to what worked in week 1.

I want my money back so this is the 1st play to start heading down that road. First official play for Wednesday and my largest of the season in terms of what I am laying on the juice. I don't have enough luck right now to even flirt with the RL. This isn't one of those win it all back in one try kind of plays, I see no reason for anyone to consider taking the Marlins in this game. Its Braves or nothing.

Atlanta $628 to Win $400
This game is for the series. We have Hudson facing off vs. Olsen in a game that really should not resemble the last two high scoring affairs and back and forth battles.

Hudson this yr: 3-0, .62era, 29ip, 16h, 19k, 11bb
Hudson vs. Marlins this yr: 1-0, 1.29era, 7ip, 6h, 1er, 4k, 4bb
Hudson vs. Marlins in Career: 5-0, 1.90era, 52ip, 42h, 37k, 17bb

Olsen this yr: 2-1, 7.5era, 18ip, 22h, 10k, 15bb
Olsen vs. Braves this yr: 0-1, 16.88era, 2.2ip, 6h, 3bb, 2k
Olsen vs. Braves in Career: 1-3, 11.02era, 16.1ip, 22h, 17k, 11bb

The problem with Olsen is walks and the Braves hitters are good enough to make you pay for putting men on base.

Braves Hitters vs. Olsen: Diaz (.286 in 7ab), Francoeur (.250 in 8ab), A. Jones (.000 in 10ab), C. Jones (.500 in 6ab), McCann (.667 in 6ab), Renteria (.500 in 6ab), C. Wilson (.286 in 7ab)

Braves Hitters vs. LHP = .256

Marlin Hitters vs. Hudson: Amezaga (.077 in 13ab), Boone (.000 in 4ab), Borchard (.100 in 10ab), Cabrera (.368 in 19ab), Jacobs (.118 in 17ab), Olivio (.143 in 14ab), Ramirez (.429 in 14ab), Uggla (.333 in 15ab), Willingham (.000 in 13ab), Ross (.000 in 2ab)

Marlin Hitters vs. RHP = .261
  • Atlanta is 4-0 when Hudson has pitched this yr
  • Atlanta is 13-6 on the RL if considering
  • Florida is 2-8 in last 10 games as a Dog
  • Florida does not have a homefield adv, they are 6-7 at home
  • Dating back 10starts vs. the Marlins which goes all the way back to 2003, Hudson has never pitched in a game vs. Florida where his team has lost
  • Walks kill and that is what will kill Olsen tomorrow
More plays to come
 
Yeah,
Hudson should shut them down....

WTF is with all these overs....It seems like dominant pitchers are few and far between...I think that the books havnt caught up with this...I mean it seems like all games even the National leauge have been flying over.
 
Troutman said:
Yeah,
Hudson should shut them down....

WTF is with all these overs....It seems like dominant pitchers are few and far between...I think that the books havnt caught up with this...I mean it seems like all games even the National leauge have been flying over.
Click to expand...

Trout - I hope so but the way things have been going for me, Hudson will pitch in his first game since 2003 vs. the Marlins where the team he is pitching for will lose.

As far as the overs go, its a combination of shitty pitching and shitty bullpens. The games that do go under are few and far between right now..You have to have balls of steel at the moment to play some of these Unders.. I am looking at a few totals for tomorrow, prob not the best idea for me.


Ray - I hope we both turn it around.
Renew- Thanks, I need all the GL I can get..
Number2 - I'm not the best person to tail right now but if your bringing me luck them jump aboard.
 
Games I am sorting through..Looking for 1-2 more plays.

Mets Over 9.5 - Looking to get it at 9
BoSox -124 - Can they lose 3 in row? Yes...Will they? Doubt it. Cabrera has not been all that sharp
WSox -134 / Team Total - Durbin is on the mound and that means runs. He over achieved in his last game. Detroit has a long plane flight back from the West Coast and the bullpen got used up pretty good.
Cleveland RL - I would have to imagine here that the ML will be too much but CC owns Texas.
 
Currently a lean because I am waiting on the line..

Mets/Rockies Over 9.5 - Really would like to get this # at 9 because I hate hooks, plain and simple..

Background Thoughts: The game tonight was far from a hitters duel but the pitching had an affect on that. Wednesday is a whole different ballgame. I have a mild concern about the early start after a 12inning game. Both bullpens were used for 5+ innings yesterday so that works with the over imo.

Fogg just pitched vs the Padres on 4/20 so he will be working on 4days of rest. He must have been smoking something green that day: 3ip, 11h, 7er, 3k, 3bb

Some Trends:
  • Over is 10-2-1 in Fogg's last 13 starts overall
  • Over is 5-1 in Pelfrey's last 6 starts overall
  • Over is 7-2 in homeplate umpire Welke's last 9 games vs. NYM
The Pitchers:

Josh Fogg this yr: 0-1, 6.61era, 16.1ip, 24h, 9k, 6bb
Josh Fogg vs. Mets in Career: 0-3, 6.58era, 26ip, 8k, 12bb

Mike Pelfry this yr: 0-1, 5.06, 10.2ip, 12h, 5k, 6bb
Pelfry has never faced the Rockies

The Hitters:

Mets Hitters vs. Fogg: Alou (.333 in 24ab), Beltran (.429 in 14ab), Delgado (.500 in 6ab), Green (.320 in 25ab), LoDuca (.438 in 16ab), Reyes (.143 in 7ab), Wright (.333 in 6ab), Valentin (.500 in 4ab)

Other thoughts:

Both pitchers are giving up over 1 hit per inning and they walk way too many people. I would be shocked to see Pelfry make it past the 6th and even more shocked if Fogg made it to the 5th inning.

Weather: 64 and sunny, wind shouldnt be a factor either way.

Lastly, I don't expect these same results tomorrow. These hitters are too damn good to do this again..

Mets hitters tonight:

Reyes: 0-5
LoDuca: 1-5
Beltran: 0-4
Delgado: 0-5
Alou: 1-5

Rockie hitters tonight:

Atkins: 0-5
Helton: 0-4
Holliday: 1-5
Hawpe: 0-3

That is a combined 3-41 from 9 hitters, six of which are hitting over .300 on the season.
 
My two books still havent dropped the Mets/Rockies Over/Under yet..

BetJam is showing me Over 9.5 +105
Greek is showing me Over 9.5 +115

Drop the line to 9 and I'll take -110..

Also the Hudson line dropped a little, maybe I jumped the gun...

Depending on if I get this number and how the 1:00 game goes, I am sorting through the plays to find 1 more..
 
Troutman said:
I thikn you should role wiht the cubbles....JK...I know you wont touch them for a while....
Click to expand...


:smiley_acbe:


let me get Over 6.5 and Cubs ML parlay 500 to win 1000 please....

:spank:


That shit ass team just doesnt know how to play fundamental baseball and the bullpen blows on top of it as well.

I think I am about to put another Unit on the Braves.. They have not lost a series this yr and I don't think Hudson becomes the first pitcher to lose one..
 
Excellent write-ups. Hope all your plays pay off for you (except one, haha). Actually, I'll give you a "push" on than one! You do good homework and I'm sure it will pay off for you.

Shorty
 
Shortline said:
Excellent write-ups. Hope all your plays pay off for you (except one, haha). Actually, I'll give you a "push" on than one! You do good homework and I'm sure it will pay off for you.

Shorty
Click to expand...

Thanks a lot Shortline, one of these days I am going to catch a little fire... Last I checked a push is better than losing..So if it came down to it, I would take it.

Santa - I am trying, I got a good feeling about today though... Hopefully this feeling is as right as my bad feeling yesterday..

HC - Thanks a lot for the headsup.

Ok as far as plays go..We are going big again today but I feel alot more comfortable with my picks today than yesterday.

I took the Mets/Rockies over off because Alou (.333 in 24ab) and LoDuca (.428 in 16ab) along with Atkins are all out of this game. On top of that, my feelings are really mixed and I am not in the position right now to play games I feel "might" go over. Prob be a 6-2 game because the Rockie bats are dead.

I am adding another Unit onto Atlanta.. I love this game for a lot of reasons and the price just keeps coming down. Not sure why all of this Marlin money is coming in but whatever, I will ride with Hudson here..Maybe he isn't as good as his .62era, I will accept that, but he is a hell of a lot better than Olsen and the Marlins offense has been supported by 1 guy a night bringing in 5+ rbi, that stops tonight.


Wednesday Final Card

Atlanta $775 to Win $500

BoSox $508 to Win $400
What you need to know is that the Orioles are in another one of their tailspins. They did not look good against Oakland in either game. Now we have two teams both on 2 game losing streaks so someone has to end it tonight..In the series between the two teams last yr, the BoSox won 15/18 games from the Orioles. This is not Cabrera's yr, he has good stuff but is a yr or 2 away from being that guy. In his career, Cabrera is 1-6 with a 9.27 ERA in 33 innings of work vs. Boston.. Cabrera was 0-3 last yr vs. the BoSox and he really struggles with that lineup. Schilling got a little roughed up vs. the Yanks last outting but I think he keeps the Oriole bats sleeping.

Indians -1.5 --- $525 to Win $500
My boy CC is taking the mound and he has really dominated the Rangers in his career (6-2). I said it in the beginning of the yr and I am sticking by it. If CC remains healthy, he will be top 3 pitcher in baseball this yr (3-0,2.25era, 28ip, 27k, 7bb) The Rangers on top of everything are a terrible road team (2-7). Cleveland is just starting to get hot and the bats of Hafner and Martinez will carry them tonight over Padilla after a big win over Johan.
 
Like the Braves and Indians picks. Actually really like a two team ML parlay with the Braves and Indians paying roughly 1.5 to 1 odds. May hit that parlay larger than normal.
 
BurningRubber - GL to you as well.. Sounds like a solid parlay.

Renew - Fuck the Cubs!!!!! Best of luck today though, I see you already hit the Mutts Over..


Looks like I overthought the Over in the Mets game but its a wash, I didn't exactly call the outcome either. Fogg pitched well, it was Pelfry who got lit up. Rockies exploded for 20 hits, not something you see everyday. I got scared off by LoDuca and Alou being out of the game for the Mets.. Just happy to see my thoughts were in the right place on the Over though.

GL to every1 tonight, lets all make some dough
 
Rangers hitting .230 this year. pretty good if you ask me. On the Indians RL with you. and it's about time to get MATCHBOOK. I am getting +108 and you are getting -105.

What you gonna do now that you are graduating and have responsibilities and shit to deal with?
 
renew orleans said:
Rangers hitting .230 this year. pretty good if you ask me. On the Indians RL with you. and it's about time to get MATCHBOOK. I am getting +108 and you are getting -105.

What you gonna do now that you are graduating and have responsibilities and shit to deal with?
Click to expand...

Nice, I love CC but they are hitting now so if they can throw up a 5spot I feel real good bout Sabathia mowing down Rangers all night.

ahhhh responsibilities... haha...Well I am going to graduate May 11 and take some time to just relax.. I am an accounting major but I really have no interest in working down here (South Carolina) so I will be spending the summer looking for a job in Jersey and betting baseball, or until my parents really get on my ass..

What yr are you in?


About 90% of my money is on BJ but damn you are constantly getting better lines than me over at MB... How did you deposit there?

Do you ever have problems with your side not getting filled up?
 
Atlanta looks good.

Hudson has been great and Atlanta can hit lefties.

The Tribe looks good.

CC has been his usual lights out this year (lots of Ks, couple hits) and should take out the lowly Nats today. And you KNOW the Tribe is gonna get at least 4 or 5.

GL with your plays.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Nice, I love CC but they are hitting now so if they can throw up a 5spot I feel real good bout Sabathia mowing down Rangers all night.

ahhhh responsibilities... haha...Well I am going to graduate May 11 and take some time to just relax.. I am an accounting major but I really have no interest in working down here (South Carolina) so I will be spending the summer looking for a job in Jersey and betting baseball, or until my parents really get on my ass..

What yr are you in?


About 90% of my money is on BJ but damn you are constantly getting better lines than me over at MB... How did you deposit there?

Do you ever have problems with your side not getting filled up?
Click to expand...

haha relaxing sounds like a good plan.

im gonna be a senior next year, gonna be bitter sweet cus I dont really want to graduate just yet lol.

I just deposited using neteller, but since thats not an option I think you can just use a debit/credit card or do book to book transfer, they do it for free i think but you may have to check with betJM to see if they will do it to MB.
don't ever really have problems actually. I usually just wait until the day of games and usually early afternoon there will be plenty of money on the games that you shouldnt have a problem making a bet. The only problem is if you offer a line, some ass will come along and match you for like $1 or .50 cents. I had one problem when a couple of my bets were graded overnight but I emailed them and they graded it minutes after the next morning. It's a great book IMO.

Cleveland is only up 1 right now in the 7th. and Boston is tied up but it looks like Atlanta is gonna cash.
 
thanks for the kind words..

I am just down mentally at this point.. These last 2 days have crushed me and not financially because I am still up on the yr, just in the head.. I can't comprehend this shit and I wont be around for a few days, gonna try to find something else to do.

I feel like Pam Anderson just dumped me after 4yrs
 
I just went through my records of all the games I bet this yr for baseball..

I don't mean to cry about spilt milk but I am 1-6 with blown saves this yr with ARod being my lone win on that Grand Slam..

Terrible, I will see you guys by Sunday..

Good Luck to all
 
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