I capped baseball of course, but didn't post my bets so far. I decided to begin today.
First of all, i rarely lock a play until the starting lineups come out. The only case i do it if t think the odds will fall.
My early thougts for today:
Mets/Rox: i looked at the over 9 because the offenses struggled in the first two matches and two mediocre pitchers will take the mound. But i don't like a lot of things now. I don't like Welke as a HP ump. I don't like that Fogg pitched well before his last outing. I don't like the fact that the Rockies never faced Pelfrey. And i don't like the weather situation. Btw, i still think the Mets offense will come alive today, so a Mets team total over or Mets RL could be the play.
Cubs/Brewers: i saw Lilly twice this year, and he is pitching very well. I like the Cubs to avoid the home sweep. I like the fact a lot of people like the Brewers with Sheets. I think that Ben is a very good pitcher though, but something is wrong with him. I didn't see him pitching this year so far, but he has 12 Ks in 27 IP. That's very low for his standards. Villanueva won't be avaliable this afternoon, and Turnbow threw a lot of pitches yesterday. The good news for Cubs backers: Eyre threw in the first the matches, so most likely he won't pitch today.
O's/Red Sox: the Orioles surprised me, really. Not how they are hitting, or they starting pitching, but their bullpen. They are pretty good. Cabrera is a good pitcher, he could dominate, but this year he takes some hits to not walk batters, at least it seems to me. He has very bad numbers against Boston, career over 9 ERA, and a lot of batters has his number, especially Alex Cora.
On the other side, Schilling has to rebound from the Yankees match where he gave up 5 runs. (the rally against Rivera saved him) He has a career 4.00 ERA against Baltimore, but most importantly, he has some great numbers against home batters: Mora, Roberts, Patterson and Payton are each hitting under .200 against him. Lean: Boston.
Yanks/Blue Jays: i know i will look like a public guy on this one, but i think the Yanks will rake up a lot of runs in this 2-game series. I'm sure they will destroy Towers tomorrow and i'm almost sure they will hit Burnett hard today. Jeter is fine and he will play today. Abreu, Cano, Jeter, A-Rod and Mientkiewicz are all above .300 against A.J. My only worry about the offense is Damon, who didn't have an extrabase hit in the last 7 days and struggling against Burnett too. He has to set the table. Pettitte is pitching well this year, but a lot of Blue Jays has great numbers against him, including Bug Hurt and Vernon Wells. Lean: Yanks team total over possibly.
Tribe/Rangers: the Indians are red hot right now (heck, they beat Johan at home with Carmona on the mound) and they have huge numbers against Padilla, altough in limited ABs. Martinez 4/8 (3 doubles), Nixon 4/8 (2 doubles, 1 hr), Peralta 4/9 (1 hr), Sizemore 3/7 (1-1 double, triple and hr), Garko 2/6, Hafner 1/4. He has a career 7.54 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and .323 baa against Cleveland and 6.88 ERA this year in 3 away games. He has 13 walks and 6 strikeouts this year. On the other hand there will be big C.C. Sabathia, the ace of the Cleveland rotation. No Ranger hit him better then .333 lifetime, he owns a lot of them. He has a respectable 2.25 ERA in 2007, 1.20 in 2 home starts. He has 7 BBs and 27 Ks. Lean: Cleveland RL, Cle TT over
More to come later
First of all, i rarely lock a play until the starting lineups come out. The only case i do it if t think the odds will fall.
My early thougts for today:
Mets/Rox: i looked at the over 9 because the offenses struggled in the first two matches and two mediocre pitchers will take the mound. But i don't like a lot of things now. I don't like Welke as a HP ump. I don't like that Fogg pitched well before his last outing. I don't like the fact that the Rockies never faced Pelfrey. And i don't like the weather situation. Btw, i still think the Mets offense will come alive today, so a Mets team total over or Mets RL could be the play.
Cubs/Brewers: i saw Lilly twice this year, and he is pitching very well. I like the Cubs to avoid the home sweep. I like the fact a lot of people like the Brewers with Sheets. I think that Ben is a very good pitcher though, but something is wrong with him. I didn't see him pitching this year so far, but he has 12 Ks in 27 IP. That's very low for his standards. Villanueva won't be avaliable this afternoon, and Turnbow threw a lot of pitches yesterday. The good news for Cubs backers: Eyre threw in the first the matches, so most likely he won't pitch today.
O's/Red Sox: the Orioles surprised me, really. Not how they are hitting, or they starting pitching, but their bullpen. They are pretty good. Cabrera is a good pitcher, he could dominate, but this year he takes some hits to not walk batters, at least it seems to me. He has very bad numbers against Boston, career over 9 ERA, and a lot of batters has his number, especially Alex Cora.
On the other side, Schilling has to rebound from the Yankees match where he gave up 5 runs. (the rally against Rivera saved him) He has a career 4.00 ERA against Baltimore, but most importantly, he has some great numbers against home batters: Mora, Roberts, Patterson and Payton are each hitting under .200 against him. Lean: Boston.Yanks/Blue Jays: i know i will look like a public guy on this one, but i think the Yanks will rake up a lot of runs in this 2-game series. I'm sure they will destroy Towers tomorrow and i'm almost sure they will hit Burnett hard today. Jeter is fine and he will play today. Abreu, Cano, Jeter, A-Rod and Mientkiewicz are all above .300 against A.J. My only worry about the offense is Damon, who didn't have an extrabase hit in the last 7 days and struggling against Burnett too. He has to set the table. Pettitte is pitching well this year, but a lot of Blue Jays has great numbers against him, including Bug Hurt and Vernon Wells. Lean: Yanks team total over possibly.
Tribe/Rangers: the Indians are red hot right now (heck, they beat Johan at home with Carmona on the mound) and they have huge numbers against Padilla, altough in limited ABs. Martinez 4/8 (3 doubles), Nixon 4/8 (2 doubles, 1 hr), Peralta 4/9 (1 hr), Sizemore 3/7 (1-1 double, triple and hr), Garko 2/6, Hafner 1/4. He has a career 7.54 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and .323 baa against Cleveland and 6.88 ERA this year in 3 away games. He has 13 walks and 6 strikeouts this year. On the other hand there will be big C.C. Sabathia, the ace of the Cleveland rotation. No Ranger hit him better then .333 lifetime, he owns a lot of them. He has a respectable 2.25 ERA in 2007, 1.20 in 2 home starts. He has 7 BBs and 27 Ks. Lean: Cleveland RL, Cle TT over
More to come later
