4/23 Bases

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
Getting an early start on this because I got a lot more time tonight before Sopranos/Entourage and this week in general without any school work to do.

Sunday was the 2nd time in a row I have bitched out on playing Gorzelanny and he goes out pitches pretty good and wins.

I am a terrible totals player and I couldn't have been more wrong on that Cubs total...Don't know why I still continue to play them but prob will play some more this wk...Fade them

Mondays games all start at night so nothing offical tonight just leans

Monday Games

Atlanta +130 / Marlins -140 / Over 9
D-Train has beaten Braves one time already this yr and Kyle Davies has had a rough 2 starts vs. the Fish in his career. Atlanta off a big series win vs. NY Mutts while Marlins finished Sunday rolling the Nationals. Small lean here to the over. Braves big bats typically hit D-Train pretty well so it will be tough for him to beat them again.

Colorodo +178 / Mets -191 / Mets -1.5 -105
First glance, Buchholz vs. Maine, I will take Maine. In 1 career start, Buchholz is 0-1 w/ 10.8 era vs Mets. Maine has never faced the Rockies but has been very impressive in his 3 starts this yr (2-0, 1.93, 18.2ip, 8h, 17k, 12bb) I personally am not a fan of pitchers who walk batters and Maine has really walked a lot of batters for a pitcher with his kind of stats. Eventually it only comes back to hurt you and Colorodo has some strong bats in the middle that could make you pay. Overall though Maine has done well this yr and I'm not willing to lay -191 but I lean towards the RL here with the Mets at home off a loss.

Brewers +136 / Cubbies -146
I have no read on this Cubs team because whenever my money is near their games I lose, minus Rich Hill. Common sense says Zambrano at home gets another win vs. a team he has already beaten this yr but who knows with the Cubs and with Zambrano in general who hasnt been on his mark yet this yr. Vargas is 0-2 w/ 9.00era vs. the Cubs in his career but is coming off an impressive last start where he struck out 11...Soriano should be back in the lineup tomorrow. Lean Cubbs but who knows. I obviously will wait to check the wind reports too.

Oakland A's +102 / Orioles -112 / Under 8.5
First thing that comes to mind is Under in a pitching duel but I as of right now I want to stay away from the total in this game. Haren has pitched really well this yr and Berdard not as well as he can, although he is 3-1, his era is 5.40. Really no lean here because you can't exactly count on the A's bats, Bedard is a tough lefty pitcher to face but not sure what to expect from the O's offense either, they are hit or miss. Really lean Under here but it would take a lot for me to play another total right now. O's have won four games in a row now, they truly love to play in April

Mariners +126 / Texas -136
Honestly don't know much about Baek from Seattle except that he is 3-0 w/ a .83era in 21.2ip vs. Texas in his career. I have never seen him pitch but he is a minor league pitcher getting his 1st start this yr.

WhiteSox -123 / Royals +113 / Under 8.5
Buehrle pitching his first start since his no-no vs. Meche who has been pretty tough this yr. Both pitchers have had some success vs. each team and both have great numbers overall this yr. A typical Meche game usually lacks run support from the Royals so is it going to be another pitchers duel for the Under?

Astros +107 / Phillies -117
Its hard to ignore what Sampson has done so far this yr: 2-0, 1.2era, 15ip, 10h, 7k, 3bb. He is on a low pitchcount however which averages 76pitches a start this yr. He had faced Philly once in his career and pitched 5 scoreless for a no decision. Eaton is 1-1 w/ a 6.62era this yr but is 2-1 w/ a 4.05era in his career vs. Houston. Lean to the Stros
 
I think we see an under in Miami, Braves wont be as hyped after the flight and the series win in NY, I think we see the offense go soft tomorrow night, as for the Marlins, they scored a lot of runs this weekend as well, look for them to quiet down too. Braves havn't hit lefties especially well, even though they got to Glavine a little. Davies looked good in is first start and I think he comes out and throws good game...
 
I think we see an under in Miami, Braves wont be as hyped after the flight and the series win in NY, I think we see the offense go soft tomorrow night, as for the Marlins, they scored a lot of runs this weekend as well, look for them to quiet down too. Braves havn't hit lefties especially well, even though they got to Glavine a little. Davies looked good in is first start and I think he comes out and throws good game...

That was my original thought for the exact same reasons until I looked at these stats..

Davies in Career vs. Marlins: 0-2, 9.22era, 13.2ip, 24h, 10k, 10bb

Both games he pitched in last yr vs the Marlins went over 9 and were 11-8 and 3-11.

Davies this yr is 0-0, 12ip, 4.5era, 10h, 11k, 5bb and has not pitched on the road yet this yr....

Marlin hitters vs. Davies: Cabrera (.625 in 8AB), Jacobs (.750 in 4AB), Ramierez (.200 in 5AB), Uggla (.600 in 5AB), and Willingham (.667 in 3AB)

Then we have D-Train who beat the Braves once already this yr but hasnt exactly pitched great this yr..

Willis this yr: 3-1, 5.25era, 24ip, 32h, 21k, 6bb
Willis vs. Braves Career: 5-4, 4.72era, 97ip, 115h, 65k, 31bb

The scary for part for me on anything concerning the under is the big Brave bats success vs. DTrain..

Diaz (.412 in 17AB), Francoeur (.381 in 21AB), K. Johnson (.333 in 12AB), A. Jones (.293 in 41AB), C. Jones (.303 in 33 AB), Renteria (.381 in 21AB), Wilson (.286 in 14AB)

Just to add one more thing and I don't like trends that much..


<LI class=more>Over is 17-5 in Davies' last 22 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Over is 20-6 in Davies' last 26 starts overall.<LI class=more>Over is 11-2-1 in Willis' last 14 starts vs. Braves.
 
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GL tomorrow ETG.

Any opinion on the Yanks/TB Over 10.5? You would have to figure that Fossum is going to get shelled.
 
Yeah,
I understand what you see in the stats, thats very telling about what should happen, I just feel an offensive letdown for both teams..Davies has good stuff "if" he can control it...I like this kid and I think he keeps the fish in check...This is more of a situational play for me than a statistical play.

That one trend is scary, Over is 11-2-1 in Willis' last 14 starts vs. Braves.

Seems tuff to bet against that, I am gonna think about it some more..Lets discuss some more later.

One fact the Marlins scored 24 runs in the last 3 games....They cant keep it up forever...The braves have scored 18 in three games. Thats a lot for both of those teams....We will see.:shake:
 
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GL tomorrow ETG.

Any opinion on the Yanks/TB Over 10.5? You would have to figure that Fossum is going to get shelled.

Hmm.. Def can see that game going over, really just skipped over that game but I can def see some runs scored in this one.
 
Trout - When I first started looking at this game I thought since the Braves just got taking 2 of 3 from the Mets, I didn't think they would be up for this game.. Marlins offense has been exploding so maybe they don't score as much was my next thought..

After seeing how weel the Braves hitters do against Willis and just the overall trends between these pitchers I can't play the under based on jet lag, not being up for the game, and both offenses not showing up. Willis already beat the Braves and they are familiar with him so it will be tough for him to get another win from them imo.The O/U is at 9-115 so maybe if I get 8.5 I will give it a play.


Terpman - GL to you too
 
Oakland A's Over/Under record to date.

13 Under
4 Over
1 Push

This a combination of terrible hitting and surprisingly good pitching.
 
for what it's worth, there is a dude going for win #21 and he has the oak under. I was leaning that way myself, but more so towards the oak side.

Anyway, if a guy is letting 100,000 ride on that under, it gets serious consideration from me.
 
Oakas - Good looks on those stats.. Seems that Over/Under in the Oakland game is about to come down a notch.

Slim - Ya I just saw that he has that and I really doubt he picked that to throw everyone off and get +money on his hedge so its def worth some more consideration.

Gangsta - ha, we're gonna cash this wk, I feel it.

Grind - Best of Luck today

Yanks and Fondy - Thanks guy, best of luck and hope you have a solid week.


Updated Leans - Prob looking to pick 2-3 from this list

Marlins Over 9 - Still kind of feeling this game, those numbers are hard to ignore.

Mets -1.5 - Almost sure this is a play, I think Maine keeps doing what he does and that is dominate. Buchholz is going to get smacked around a little bit in this game from a pissed off Mets team

Cubbies -149 - Approaching my limit for the ML but Big Z needs to do big things this yr and lowering that 7.77 era is one of them.

Oakland Under 8.5 - Juice is -125 here so I would expect this number to fall soon. Guy going for Wagerline 100k has this as a play so it deserves some extra consideration.

White Sox Under 8.5 - Still sticking by this lean because Meche and Buehrle have good enough stuff to keep it to 8runs and under.

Astros +107 - Sampson #'s are hard to ignore here
 
Got to wait until 11 to make this play official but this is play #1 and I will lock it in asap

Mets -1.5 --- $400 to Win $420

To add to the #'s stated above, Rockies are 3-6 on the road and I really like the Mets coming out pissed off vs. Buchholz. Mets are just 4-4 at home, so they havent exactly defended their turf.. Rockies hit lefty pitching a little better than Righty pitching but in 6 games last yr, Mets won 5 all covering the RL.
 
DeJesus is Doubtful for Todays game, thats another bat off the list for the Royals (.347, 3hr, 7rbi, 15r) ..

WhiteSox vs. Meche
Dye (.227 in 22Ab)
Crede (.100 in 10AB)
Erstad (.407 in 27AB)
Iguchi (.378 in 8AB)
Konerko (.250 in 16AB)
Thome (.400 in 15AB)
Uribe (.333 in 6AB)

Royals vs. Buehrle
Brown (.423 in 26AB)
Buck (.115 in 26AB)
DeJesus (.161 in 31AB)
Gruzilanek (.364 in 22AB)
Sweeny (.359 in 59AB)
Teahen (.417 in 24AB)
 
Got to wait until 11 to make this play official but this is play #1 and I will lock it in asap

Mets -1.5 --- $400 to Win $400

To add to the #'s stated above, Rockies are 3-6 on the road and I really like the Mets coming out pissed off vs. Buchholz. Mets are just 4-4 at home, so they havent exactly defended their turf.. Rockies hit lefty pitching a little better than Righty pitching but in 6 games last yr, Mets won 5 all covering the RL.


Now officially locked in, the odds dropped from +105 to +100
 
Thanks Santa and Renew..


A little bit of info to add to the Braves/Marlins over, thank to Jumponboard for pointing this out in another thread..

"Willis' wife is expecting the couple's first child any day, and there is a chance she will have labor induced Monday morning."


Assuming Willis makes it back to the stadium to pitch on time after his child is born, I am thinking the last thing on his mind is throwing strikes. Not completly focused + braves prior success batting vs him = a few more runs than expected.. The total is going to sit pretty steady at 9 so I got a while to think about this.

I am still waiting on the WSox/Royal total to hit 9 before making it a play.

Not going to touch the Oakland/Orioles games

Still undecided about the Cubbies
 
2nd offical play..

Cubbies -1.5 --- $300 to Win $405

Big Z is out to bounce back and return to the pitcher we all know his as while the Brewers will try to make him eat his words for calling them out. Vargas although off an impressive last start was hit around a little bit when thrown into a relief appearance vs. the Cubbies. Like I said before getting Soriano's big bat back in the lineup only helps. Big Z was starting to get priced out of my range, taking a shot on the RL.
 
30-19-2 +$3181.69

Final Card:
Cubbies -1.5 --- $300 to Win $405
Mets -1.5 --- $400 to Win $400

Not going to press it with Over in Marlins game or the Under in the WSox game.. I see reasons for both to hit but I can see enough reasons why they shouldnt hit either. I am concerned with D-Train, does he win one for his newborn with a complete gem of a game? I think maybe the two pitchers in the Royals game might be off their mark tonight. Totals are not my thing so really got no confidence playing them.



Satyr & Rookie - Good Luck tonight

Everyone else, hope we all make some cash

:cheers:
 
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