4/22 Bases

[E.T.G.]

29-18-2 +$3126.69

Took Saturday off, woke up way too late to bet anything. Bout to head out and will update this sometime late tonight/early 2morrow.

Sunday Leans:

Pitt +118 / Under 8

Looking to get a more value on this play so going to have to wait for all the Dodger money to come in. Really surprised to see Pitt this low but whatever. Looking for Pitt +135 or more and 8.5 on the Under. The Ideal situation would be for Ian Snell to get lit up and the LAD roll to victory possibly going over the total tonight.

Basically assuming the LAD beat Pitt on Saturday night, Pitt will be in a 4game skid while LAD will be going for a sweep and just playing really great ball now. In comes Gorzelanny, a pitcher I really like. Dodger hitters have not seen this young lefty however LAD do a pretty good job vs. LH pitching (.261) and are playing very good at home. Bullpen advantage goes to LAD as well. Will also consider a 4.5 inning play instead because I think Gorzelanny can lead by a run after 5 or so. All will depend on the final price I can get with Pitt near gametime. I shouldn't sell Tomko short however, he has been tough this yr and last time he pitched at home he gave up 1 hit over 6 vs. Colorodo hence the reason I have a lean towards the under pretty strong as well. I like Pitt this game because given some of the success their better bats have had vs. Tomko, they might be able to get something started and help Gorzelanny with some run support. The otherside of this is that the youngster Gorzelanny is due to get smacked around a little bit but I don't think that is the case.

Gorzelanny this yr: 2-0, 1.33era, 20.1ip, 15h, 11k, 4bb
Tomko this yr: 0-0, 1.64era, 11ip, 9h, 10k, 7bb

Gorezelanny on the road: 2-0, 2.02era, 13.1up, 11h, 6k, 4bb
Tomko at home: 0-0, 0.00era, 6ip, 1h, 9k, 3bb

Pirates vs. Tomko: Bay (.333 in 18ab), Sanchez (.429 in 7ab), Jack Wilson (.292 in 24ab).

Pitt hitting vs. RH: .227
LAD hitting vs. LH: .261

Series this yr: 2-0 LAD

Pitt on the road: 6-6
LAD at home: 6-2

Angels -138

Here we have a struggling Ervin Santana and a struggling Jeff Weaver. I have to keep the fade on Weaver here as Ervin is a much better pitcher at home historically in his career. Of course there is motivation for Weaver, who gets to face the team that shipped him off to the Cardinals but I think the Angels show Weaver why they made the decision to ship him off. Maybe Weaver didn't pitch as bad as his box score last game but he is not really much better than it either imo. I would love a full Angels lineup here and I really like Howie Kendrick so I think not having him hurts but overall I am not really concerned with Weaver's career numbers vs. the Angels as I figure them pretty irrelevant now. Some of the other numbers favor Seattle but they are very tough to back here imo. Angels are looking for the sweep here while the Mariners will try to avoid it (its 3-0 right now in the game).

Jeff Weaver this yr: 0-2, 15.75era, 8ip, 17h, 4k, 3bb
In career vs. Angels:5-5, 2.78era, 71.4ip, 69h, 46k, 19bb
On the Road this yr: 0-1, 35.0era, 2ip, 7h, 1k, 22bb

Ervin Santana this yr: 1-2, 7.63era, 15.1ip, 13h, 12k, 8bb
In career vs. Mariners: 1-2, 6.56era, 23.1ip, 24h, 16k, 10bb
At home in 06': 10-2, 3.02era, 116ip, 93h, 76k, 35bb

Angels vs. Weaver: Anderson (.241 in 29AB), Vlad (.222 in 9AB), Hillenbrand (.167 in 18AB).
Mariners vs. Santana: Beltre (.167 in 12AB), Betancourt (.333 in 9AB), Ibanez (.556 in 9AB), Lopez (.167 in 12AB), Sexson (.375 in 7AB)

Mariners vs. RH: .271
Angels vs. RH: .217

Series this yr: 1-0 (w/ Saturday game pending)

 

[GangstaTalkRight]

Yo Green Friday night was beat but lets forgetttaaabouttttit
To bad you sleep until 4pm I could haven given you the mets for 4-21 but its all good. Lets get it going again and have a great couple days

 

[Terpman92]

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[Sparky1019]

GL green :shake:

Angels looks good. :cheers:

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

gl ETG

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

agree w/ the leans, bro.

GL with whatever you end up playing

 

[Troutman]

Green,
Did you have a grat 420. I got my hands on some AK and Northern Lights, ate all day and woke up hurting...

 

[Troutman]

I cant trust the Angels right now, especially with Ervin he got shelled last week by the Bosox, Jeff Weaver sux, but he proven he can throw good stuff last year in the Series..

 

[E.T.G.]

I cant trust the Angels right now, especially with Ervin he got shelled last week by the Bosox, Jeff Weaver sux, but he proven he can throw good stuff last year in the Series..

I am not sure I agree here trout. How can you feel like you trust Weaver more than Ervin. They both got shelled by the same team on the road. It is a known fact however that Ervin pitching 5x better at home than on the road.. I am still thinking about that game but I trust Ervin more than Weaver.

 

[E.T.G.]

Gangsta - I missed out on yesterday
Terp, Sparky, Grind, Yanks- Thanks and GL
Trout - 4/20 was good, didn't get anything like some AK, wish I could have but def woke up with a pot hangover..



As far as the plays go, The Dodgers beat the Pirates like I asked and total went over, its too bad it happened in the 10th inning on a walk off grand slam..

Pirates have gone from +118 to +121.. Going to have to wait this one out until almost gametime. The Over/Under is also pretty steady at 8 and I would love that .5 run but its whatever.

Ervin at -145 is approaching my limit for a pitcher who isn't exactly setting the world on fire.

 

[E.T.G.]

Additional leans for now..


St Louie / Cubs Under 12
Why is this line so high? The highest total on the board, kind of confused and part of me thinks it is a mistake... 12???? That means St Louie would actually have to score today and Wainwright would have to get rocked.

Angels -1.5 +150
This is based on the Weaver gets rocked theory. I don't think Angels give up a grand slam in the 8th to blow the RL in this one

 

[E.T.G.]

Someone please tell me what I am missing with this St Louie/ Cubs under 12..I understand Miller is 0-2 with a 9era but the Cards couldnt get on base if this was tee-ball.

The past 2 games this series:

Cubs 2-1
Cubs 6-0

Earned Runs let up by Wainwright and Miller this yr:

Wainwright - 1,2,4 (5)
Miller - 6, 3

Total games both teams have played that went over 12:

Cards: 1 game that pushed 12
Astros: 3 games that went over 12, 1 that pushed..

Out of 34 combined games, 3 have gone over 12 and 2 have pushed..

 

[E.T.G.]

$345 to Win $300 Cubs/Cards Under 12

I have to take a shot here because this line is not justified imo. Although not one of my original leans this game is a must play for me at this line. If I lose than so be it but I would play under 12 on these 2 teams in this situation every time.

They have the highest total on the board. I don't think either pitcher throws that bad today.

 

[spiderman]

I agree with you - that total seems way too high for two teams that haven't been hitting.

I'm assuming the total is that high because of the weather conditions. It's going to be around 80 today in Chicago, and I'm guessing the wind could be blowing out today.

 

[E.T.G.]

Spider - Thanks.. I guess warm weather with the wind blowing out is equal to some runs (1-2) but with some of the other pitchers on the mound and the way some of the other teams are hitting this total does no deserve to be clearly the highest on the board..

 

[spiderman]

Spider - Thanks.. I guess warm weather with the wind blowing out is equal to some runs (1-2) but with some of the other pitchers on the mound and the way some of the other teams are hitting this total does no deserve to be clearly the highest on the board..

I'm with you on that. This is the type of bet that I don't mind losing. Without the weather, we'd probably be looking at a 9 run total today, but factoring in the weather, both teams offense are going to have to show up today to get to 12, and until they show some consistentcy, I'm going to stick with the UNDER totals.

 

[E.T.G.]

I'm with you on that. This is the type of bet that I don't mind losing. Without the weather, we'd probably be looking at a 9 run total today, but factoring in the weather, both teams offense are going to have to show up today to get to 12, and until they show some consistentcy, I'm going to stick with the UNDER totals.

Pretty much Agree....I just checked and saw 15mph winds and that doesn't really concern me. I am betting that Miller looks better than a 9.00 era and Wainwright looks better than his last outting. Both offenses will have to be present today to score 13 runs. In MLB yesterdays, only 1 game went over the total of 12, the Angels and Mariners which was helped by a grandslam in the 8th.

Upped my play on the Under to make it a pretty much normal play for me..

Cards/Cubs Under 12 --- $460 to Win $400

Next play I am making is the Angels. If Weaver is the pitcher who helps Seattle get back on the winning side of things than so be it. I personally think he is no good, maybe it was the extended time I got to see him as a Yankee or just the overall piss poor showings he had made pitching. Ervin is a much better pitcher at home, I don't know what it is but as a flyball pitcher they usually stay in the park when he pitches in the Angels Stadium. Coming into this game, both pitchers have motivation to turn it around. Weaver to show the team that dropped him they were wrong and Ervin to show that he really isnt that bad and he just can't pitch on the road. RL's have hurt me in the past but if the Angels win, I don't think it will be by 1 run so I have to go with the value here.

Angels -1.5 --- $275.86 to Win $400

I am still patiently waiting on this Pitt/LAD game. Last nights game went over when it really had no business doing so. The loss for Pitt can work 2 ways, it could be demoralizing or since they are young it doesn't carry over to the next day. Personally, I like Gorzelanny but Tomko has pitched very well this yr and maybe I lean towards the under more than Pitt. I am very concerned having a Pitt side in this game if they have a lead in the 8th or 9th inning. What a terrible way to lose a game.

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL green, that cubs/cards under 12 is confusing to me as well. Seems like an easy under play with Wainwright on the mound. also like LAA RL, just waiting to get better odds than +141 since its +144 on Pinny.

 

[E.T.G.]

GL green, that cubs/cards under 12 is confusing to me as well. Seems like an easy under play with Wainwright on the mound. also like LAA RL, just waiting to get better odds than +141 since its +144 on Pinny.

Dunno what book you are using but I don't know if the RL will get better. I jumped at the RL at +145 cause I saw it come down from +150..

I don't kinow what is up with that Over/Under.. I think people are overstating the winds, I see 15mph but have read people claiming 20-30mph winds and that is 1thing but does it justify the highest toal on the board?

Right now I see Over 12 -120.. If I get 12.5, I am going more on it because I just don't see what there is to like about runs in this game. I prob represent the losing side in this bs line but I would never consider Over 12 in this game.. Maybe 1 team erupts but for 13 runs, they both gota errupt..

GL to you