4/21 Bases

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Totals: 11-8-1, +1.130
MLs: 11-8, +1.422
RLs: 7-9, +0.325
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'09 YTD: 29-25-1, +2.877 units


Haven't been around bases in quite a few days. Whatever day i left off on last week was brutal...then i just got way too busy with other things. Anyways, got a couple of plays for Tuesday. Might add more later, as there were a couple totals i was looking at...but want to dig into those some more before pulling the trigger.


LAD -1.5 RL (+106) over HOU for 3/4 of a unit
Kershaw vs Ortiz

DET ML (-101) over LAA for 3/4 of a unit
Galarraga vs Weaver

FLA TT over 4.5 (-105) for 3/4 of a unit
Sanchez vs Karstens


First, the Dodger runline. Total SP mismatch. Kershaw's off a truly brilliant outing...and Ortiz (though not completely horrible) is lasting around 4 innings so far, though one was in relief, which means a whole lotta Stro bullpen on the menu. Dodgers are red hot at the moment, and Houston is anything but hot. The run differential between these 2 teams is already significant. And one team's been hitting, including Manny lately, where the other team's been really struggling to plate even a few runs per game.

Second, the Tiger moneyline. Hate to say it...but all thing's considered, the Halos are currently in a post-Adenhart-tragedy funk. There's obviously more than that going on, like Vlad being out...but they just aren't themselves right now, for a variety of reasons. Weaver hasn't had much success against Detroit. The Halos aren't hitting of late. And the Tiger's current ace (w/ Porcello being the future ace) is on the hill. Just doesn't bode well for the Halos, following up the Minny series/sweep.

Anyways, that's it for now...maybe some more later/tomorrow. Either way, it's definitely time to get back on the winning side of things...and imo, these 2 plays are a good start at doing just that.


Good luck manana :tiphat:

(and added that Fish TT)
 
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GL.

Think Det won both Galaragga starts against the Halos last year. Even a rare victory for us in the Big A. Seems like a solid spot. Detroit actually playing some fundamental bases this year.

:tiphat:
 
well, heading to bed...and still undecided on the CWS/BAL total. leaning towards the hova, as contreras has been shit...which is better than how he finished up ST. but this bergesen is an unknown variable...and at least so far, he has put up ok #s in AAA.

the other total was the fish/bucs. laying off of that. just not sure what i'm gonna get from dirty sanchez on the road. a high whip guy...but somehow he continues to get out of jams. that said...i do know what to expect from karstens, and that's even more runners on base. the difference is that i like the fish to be able to plate them more often then not...so i'm gonna add the Fish team total over whatever it is when a line's available tomorrow. prolly 4.5 runs.

whether i get on to post it tomorrow is another story. won't count it if i'm not able to post it...but jsut wanted to share my thoughts on this game.

:cheers:
 
Ok...i'm back to add that Fish team total...


FLA TT over 4.5 (-105) for 3/4 of a unit
Sanchez vs Karstens


Some brief reasons why...

In 13 games so far this year, Florida is averaging 5.92 runs/game. In 7 road games this year (in which they've gone 6-1), Florida is averaging 5.71 runs/game...so not much of a dropoff, despite the other day.

And like i said last night, Karstens is often fade material...because he loves to get into jams, it seems. He's only thrown 4 innings so far this season...and has a 6.75 ERA so far, along with a 2.25 WHIP. But lifetime at PNC Park, he's thrown a total of 31.3 IP...has a 5.74 ERA...a 1.66 WHIP...and is allowing a .326 BA. A small sample, compared to most...but it's what we've got to work with in terms of Karstens. That is unless you want me to go back to some of his outings as a Yankee. ;)

GL :tiphat:
 
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