4/2 MLB Plays

[scdoggy]

MLB Exhibition 2013: 34-21-1 +19.56 units
Regular Season 2-1 +1 unit

Always good to start out on the plus side of things. Lost the SF bet, but its a play I'd make again in a heartbeat given the same price. Speaking of Price, and value - let's look at today:

Baltimore +161 .75 units

I honestly believe Baltimore is a better team than TB this year. If the Orioles pen can replicate last season, and they can keep guys healthy, the Birds will contend again. Always tough to bet against Price, but if Hammel can keep them in this game and turn it over to the pens, Baltimore has an advantage. Don't like TB's offense at all. Under makes a lot of sense here as well....

 

[No1Ranked]

GL Doggy. I hope you are right. Can wait for the O's season to finally start.

Love the value but usually afraid to bet on my O's. I do agree that they are being disrespected with the preseason predictions and they can win the division if they stay healthy.

 

[Dollaz]

Best of healthy Scdoggy. Id love to hear your comments on why Baltimore is the better team. Pythag is a measure of luck, based on the number of runs scored and allowed last year, Baltimore should have went 82-80; TB 95-67. TB scored 0.1 run less per game and allowed 0.8 runs less. No other team in the AL varied by more than 5 games from Pythag. Baltimore had an unstanable 16-2 recored in extra inning games and a 29-9 record in 1 run games.

Can you really rely on anyone in that rotation or bullpen? Hammels..maybe

2012 FIP of projected rotation:

Hammels -3.29
Chen 4.42
Tillman- 4.25
Gonzalez- 4.38
Arrieta- 4.05

Main bullpen arms:
Johnson 3.25
Ayala- 3.67



Best of luck on the year. Just can't disagree more on the Oreos. I peg them as a last place finisher in the AL East and probably around 75-78 wins.

 

[scdoggy]

Let's get it today No1!!

Dollaz - Strop, Johnson, O'Day all pretty damn solid out of the pen. Johnson had a 2.49 ERA last year and a 1.02 WHIP. Tough to find many pitchers in baseball who can hang with those numbers. Many will say it was luck... I guess we'll see.

Starting pitching is a question mark for them, but they have enough potential arms in the mix to make it work. I like Chen, Hamels, and Gonzalez and Hamels is decent. Then you have to hope BRitton, Matusz (who I like in the pen because he's murder on lefties), Tillman or Arrieta gets hot and you've got a decent rotation.

Their offense doesn't really have holes in it as far as I can see. One of the more well rounded teams in baseball if they can stay healthy....

 

[Dollaz]

Johnson isn't bad. He doesn't miss enough bats for me. Strop walked 5 batters per 9 innings last year. Luckily he got a lot of groundballs because he only k'ed slightly over 7 per 9. O'Day is a very good reliever, imo.

The thing about bullpens is they are so volatile that variation is huge year to year. I expect Balty's 3.00 ERA from the pen last year will regress closer to league average or above. They only scored 7 more runs than they allowed last year despite a lot of luck on the pitching side (IMO). Best of health.

 

[RudyNYC]

Hammel had great spring - FWIW!

GL,
Rudy

 

[scdoggy]

I won't discount the fact that the O's definitely got lucky. Johnson probably the luckiest of them all. Strop was either all the way on or all the way off. He went through a stetch late summer where he struggled mightily, but was pretty damn good outside of that. But I think they have enough average to above average guys in the pen to get it done. They may not achieve the numbers from last year, but I feel better about their offense coming into this year, so they may not have to.

I still think Tampa's offense stinks.

 

[scdoggy]

Should have waited to put in the play. Let's make it a full unit, and get a few cents in the process:

.25 units at +165

 

[Dollaz]

I'm not completely sold on the Rays offense either. I'm all in on their pitching though as they are deep and talented.

Rays scored 697 runs last year. Lost Pena, Elliot Johnson, Upton, from the lineup. They have been replaced by Loney, Johnson, Escobar. I think that's a decent improvement from last year and may be a lot more once Myers is called up.

 

[play ball]

I'm not completely sold on the Rays offense either. I'm all in on their pitching though as they are deep and talented.

Rays scored 697 runs last year. Lost Pena, Elliot Johnson, Upton, from the lineup. They have been replaced by Loney, Johnson, Escobar. I think that's a decent improvement from last year and may be a lot more once Myers is called up.

They also only had Longoria for 74 games, about half a season, if he is healthy for the whole season, that will be an improvement to their offense.

GL Doggy with your home team O's and congrats on a great Spring.

 

[scdoggy]

Cle/TOr Over 4.5 first five innings -120 one unit

Everyone jocking Toronto offense and why not??? Jays should pound Masterson, but I think Dickey's knuckler won't move as much as it does elsewhere with the roof shut. I expect both starters to give up their share in this one, and Nelson doesn't scare me at all behind the plate.

 

[Play2win]

Bol this season Doggy.

 

[scdoggy]

Thanks Play - you too.

Atta boy Dickey. Welcome to the league where pitchers don't bat.

One more for tonight:

Stl/ARI Over 9 -105 one unit