4.18

[SportsNut]

Again we have day baseball all AL schedules. I messed up real big getting two heavily involved in the early schedule TUES losing 19units( 6 on my runs experiment) cause I did real well the rest of the way with exception of the Seattle debacle to get it back to a 2 unit loss.....In the end I cant complain much early on I fucked on bad one day stretching some marginal plays on dogs to bigger sized plays and got killed. Other then all minor losses outside of SUndays -8 units and that was 21 on one swing of the bat by Scutaro so it was actually a solid day that I took a tough beat on...


+8.33units
-0.57units
-24.80units
+17.00units
+15.90units(-0.75u)
-6.63units
+16.35units (-1.50u)
-3.75 units
+16.90units
+2.93 units (-1.00 u)
-2.92 units
+3.05 units
-4.65 units (-1.00u)
+35.55 units
-8.48 units (-1.00 u)
+11.42 units
-2.30 units


KC @ DET:
The stat that sticks out for me is Bondermn in day starts last season 1-6 in 11 starts with a 5.70 ERA compared to 13-2 3.35 at nite LYR. Now he pitched 2 fairly solid games in the day so far 12 innings and 5 runs but he was awesome @ Tor at nite. Bonderman has ben subpar vs KC IMO considering how bad they have been past few years but also remember how young Bonderman is as well.

Meche has been solid so far in 07. He was somewhat shaky vs DET last week though but had spun 3 good starts vs them in 2006. Meche has lost his last 2 starts by 1 run and Bonderman lost by a run and xtra innings plus winning by 1. Meche's career ERA is 1.10 pts lower in day starts.


With Jerry Crawford behind the dish and 3 unders on his resume already you have to think an over is around the corner. Who knows maybe his mind will be on bro Joe Crawford and his suspension...j/k. Doesnt seem to be enough value with the situation for an under....


Thinking about KC +1.5 RL again.....


Balt @ TB

Just keeping in mind the numbers I have been throwing at ya for the series. O's Vs LHP on the road..think 5-21 last season and now 0-3 this season. Plus the Rays in the fav role and O's in the road dog role.


Bedard struggles on the road BUT he was awesome @ Trop last year. In 21 + innings he allowed 2 earned runs and won all 3 starts(24Ks). In 8 career starts he has a 2.22 ERA. Bedard has improved with each outing this year but I dont think is at his peak yet but he does pitch slightily better in day games.


Just like Bedard we have seen Kazmir steadily improve. Kaz was 5-1 2.19 ERA in 7 day starts and had a 1.91 Home ERA , 1.00 WHIP and .191 BAA in 2006 . Two seasons ago Kaz was 3-2 in 6 starts with a sparkling 2.39 ERA in day games, 1.14 WHIP , .200 BAA.


We saw what a LHP can do to Balt with Fossum tonite...and again we saw what the PEN can do as well.....awful...except for Reyes..


So TB ML -120 , possibly an Under but maybe Balt team UND instead..


LAA@ OAK

We know how important Vlad is to the LAA lineup so awaiting his status before I really start thinking. I would prefer Lackey at this point since he tends to pitch well vs OAK and Haren has been okay so far....low scoring seems to be the theme with Bradley and Vlad out.....


Thats the early slate thoughts....thinking at Pitt , SFG , ARI ,LAA ,BOS and NYY and under.....:cheers:

 

[Terpman92]

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[Yanks27Sox9]

GL with whatever you decide to play tomorrow, Nut

 

[Troutman]

Really like the LA A under, last time with Vladdy these guys played a 2 - 1 ball game...La and Oak dont have any bats IMO and they both bat less than .250 against rhp....not that great.

 

[JRose5]

I think KC +1.5 is worth another shot. Played that small last night. The lines pretty much haven't changed much this whole series, no matter the pitching matchup. I guess they will continue to do so until the Royals can prove they can win a game. (BTW, here in KC the sky is falling! Everybody wants Buddy Bell fired asap. That's pretty much every call in: "Fire Buddy Bell". Then the host says, and hire who? And the same names keep coming up: Buck Showalter or Frank White. Lol. When are these people gonna realize, the manager is not the problem.)
Obviously, my concern on this game is that the Royals have been finding ways to blow games in so many different ways. Definitely surprised to see Bonderman's somewhat pedestrian numbers vs. the Royals, and as you pointed out, ERA in day games. Teahen and Dejesus have also had some success against him in the past. Hopefully Meche's hamstring won't be an issue and I dont think it will be, otherwise they wouldn't throw him out there. GL with your plays today.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Good stuff here Nut, as I lean your ways with KC/O and TB/U (though I cannot bet that game UNDER by itself, I would be breaking one of my rules - never bet these D-Rays UNDER)....

Also, Vladdy is not going to play, 90 percent sure.

GL!

 

[The Farm]

Thinking the tigers will put on a hitting camp today for all the fans who took the day off of work today...
Tigers 8-4 Lets go bondo

 

[SportsNut]

Farm: You think there will be alot of people running to sit in 45 degree weather...I think it will be a tight game but I am just not sure with Crawford back there ....was thinking 4-3 or 5-4.....who knows just guessing....GL

CKR- Little reason to take a Rays UNDER I agree but I did have it last nite...didnt expect Traschel to be so bad or the pen to again get busted...might do the cparlay myself...You are correct Vlad is OUT till at least Friday it seems...thanks and GL

JRose- Yeah I messed up I liked KC +1.5 yesterday but also played the ML and didnt net very much from that. I thought I read somewhere Meche's hammy was okay but dont recall where probably a fantasy site.

The manager isnt the problem I think Bell's career W/L percentage though is a tough sell. KC has lost alot of winnable games due to the pen. So in some ways you have to blame him for that since he is making the moves. You are right though its the same recycled names ....

Bondy can have issues with LH and really he has been either pretty good or poor vs KC no inbewteen....GL

Trout- As we saw last nite any sort of solid pitching performance will keep these bats quiet. I just hate 7.5 in the AL game would rather it was a nite when the ball wouldnt carry...leaning that with LAA..GL

Thanks Yanks & Terps......BOL:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

I am already locked in but just curious to hear your thoughts on Dbacks/Padres tonight..

GL with the games today

 

[The Farm]

Farm: You think there will be alot of people running to sit in 45 degree weather...I think it will be a tight game but I am just not sure with Crawford back there ....was thinking 4-3 or 5-4.....who knows just guessing....GL



Talked to quite a few poeple going to the game today nut. a light rain blowover and then its game on!!!
GL tonight buddy

 

[SportsNut]

Comerica

1 PM:

KC +1.5 RL -105 {3units} ML +200 {1/2unit} +4.00


Under 8 +105 {1unit} +1.05


Good Luck..couldnt pass up the price with Maggs and Pudge resting

Note:
For the TB game have the Rays @ -123 {6u}and the U 8 -105{4u} just deciding how much I will keep of both

 

[SportsNut]

Farm: You think there will be alot of people running to sit in 45 degree weather...I think it will be a tight game but I am just not sure with Crawford back there ....was thinking 4-3 or 5-4.....who knows just guessing....GL



Talked to quite a few poeple going to the game today nut. a light rain blowover and then its game on!!!
GL tonight buddy

Thanks bro...sounds good....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

:cheers:

I am already locked in but just curious to hear your thoughts on Dbacks/Padres tonight..

GL with the games today

First glance I was thinking ARI. Basically there ace vs a weak hitting lineup. Looked at past meetings for both SP neither has overly impressed. Wells will only have success @ Petco and Webb really hasnt been that good @ Petco. The SD lineup has faired okay vs Webb. Where Zona has faced only 1 LH and is below 200 on the season despite 7hits in 6 innings that start....

Really not interested in playing this but with Webb being so-so so far I owuld rather be on SD...Zona offense is basically slumping just as much as SD's....

BOL

 

[signalcaller]

With you on the Kazmir play Sports. Lets get em

 

[SportsNut]

With you on the Kazmir play Sports. Lets get em

Thanks bro...BOL today...:cheers:

Added..a value parlay

KC +190 / Under 8 +105 {1/2 unit to win 2.47}...got ridiculous + odds +2.47

 

[SportsNut]

Trop

Rays -123 {5units} -6.15
Under 8 -105 {1.25units} -1.31
Under 3.5 -105 Balt team {1.25} -1.32

switched it up some

BOL..hedged out of some..didnt want to get to crazy..:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Fair enough on your assessment of the DBacks game.. I had/have many of the same thoughts but just have a feeling that led me to taking the DBacks.

GL with the games 2night

 

[SportsNut]

Oakland game

Oakland A's -110 {2.5units} -1.5 RL +180 {1/2unit} +3.40

Under 3.5 LAA team -115 {2.5units} +2.50


Notes:

Last 5 games LAA has scored 6 runs! There past 9 games in seven of them they had 2 runs or less. Oak ERA is sub 3 as a team and they were so solid in day games last season... Haren pitched well last week vs them and he was excellent in day starts last year...0.96 WHIP and .206 BAA..what has hurt him in the past vs LAA has been Vlad and Figgins really both absent. Two other key contributors have been Garret Anderson and Cabrera but Garrett is in a slump right now and that might be more important then past stats..thinking OAK 4-2 here because despite Lackeys success vs OAK indivually they have some decent splits and maybe Crosby HR gets him going now.....

BOL ...finished up with the day games ...:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks ETG........BOL....

For what its worth I have a sneaky feeling that LAA could allow this game to over by using a bottom end of the pen reliever late in the game cause they are down 4-1 or so...

 

[Troutman]

I LIKE 4-2...Like that team total under 3.5 for the Angels//GL'an_horse'

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Trout....I know ur on the UNDER so I am pulling for ya.....BOL

On another note feels nice to get a break. Win one that maybe you shouldnt have...TY KC...and I finally hit a small ML parlay!

 

[Troutman]

Thanks Trout....I know ur on the UNDER so I am pulling for ya.....BOL

On another note feels nice to get a break. Win one that maybe you shouldnt have...TY KC...and I finally hit a small ML parlay!

Good things happen to good cappers:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

7 PM starts

Add...

NYY -132 {3units} -1.5 RL +150{1unit} +4.50
Under 10.5 +100 {3units} -3.00
Red Sox -127 {3units} -2.5 RL +205 {.75units} +4.54
Rangers +110 {2.5units} -2.50
Under 9 -105 Texas {5units} Pending



Notes:

At the Stadium we saw the return of Victor Martinez and debut of Chase Wright. neither was especially grand but Wright provided us with hope. That if he continues to progress he can be a solid #3 type SP in the majors ( along the lines of Capuano). Bottomline is same premise that I talked about yesterday. Tribe doesnt hit LHP on the road and they have now LOST 17 of 21 at the Stadium. Igawa basically needs to throw strikes , stay ahead and watch out for that high fastball. Sowers has faced two lineups who dont hit LH all that well in ChiSox and LAA. The Yanks with Phelps now , Melky in for Matsui have more balance especially with ARod on a tear. Sowers is getting way to overhyped IMO. Not that he isnt very good but he is being made into something he is not just like what we have seen with DiceK. Good SP but not to the extent they are made up to be...

Wakefield has been sharp so far this season. His career numbers show better splits in indoor starts but Rogers Centre actually has been slightily worse then his career avgs . Tor has some key absences and the lineup hasnt exactly picked up in there absences. The Big Hurt and Wells have not enjoyed facing Wake though Rios is 5/13. On the other side Ohka settled down after a rough start last outing vs maroth but he cant afford another rough start with Tor offense being a question mark. Looking at the over possible just think Boston has all the minor edges here. They were hitting before Chacin who has proven to be a tough matchup for them so I dont see why they dont get back on track here..

At chitown the weather is a minor concern. Its kinda cold here in NY mid 40's threat of rain sure its similiar there from what I see..Anyway its no secret that in 2005 when he was part of the Tribe he was very strong Vs Chicago and the one guy who gave him problem si on teh DL now Podsednik(sp?). Mix in the fact that CHI bats are struggling and you get him in agood situation. Buerhle has been fairly solid vs Texas. His last couple outings have been abit supbar but I like that he battled and lasted 7 innings. This year he looks solid to date and Texas is split bewteen guys that hit him well and dont hit him at all...Teixiera OWNS him and now Sosa hitting helps out....another close game with TEX IMO have the
edges...Millwood has been solid on the road and actually better statistically away and the Sox have scored few runs recently only topping 4 vs Kennedy and Carmona....


Just waiting on the WIND to place the totals and I expected a lower scoring card today.......looking at the NL.

Looks like I will get screwed @ TB ...not screwed but unlucky...:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

7 PM NL

ML Parlays {1/2unit each risked}

Philly -1.5 +115 / under 9 -120 (+1.47) -.50
NYM +108 / Under 8.5 +100 wins (+1.60) -.50

Over 9 +100 Cincy {3units} PUSH (GIFT)
Astros +128 {1.25 units} +1.82


Notes:

Not much interested in Philly @ Wash. Part of me think Nats are a good play here but then reality sets and tells me if Philly doesnt respond to Manuel's tirade yesterday they are done. You have to respond to a managers outburst and show you share the same emotion and desire. At least thats how I feel but at the price now I dont want to gamble on a team who continues to fail to hit with RISP. Bergmann has ben solid outside his 1st inning of the season but his control worries me and Ryan Howard 3 plate appearances = 3 walks vs him. Eaton was terrific vs Ny after the shelling vs ATL......so lean towards Philly based on situation...and Under but dont want to get involved....maybe a 1/2 u parlay Philly / under for shits and giggles....

In Fla basically the same deal wavering back and forth. However despite Willis success vs NY I cant overlook the fact that bats hitting LH well at 346 so far. They have Alou and Green who limited atbats have fared well vs DTrain as have Wright and Reyes.....Maine has been solid on real long rest in a few occurrences...same deal small 1/2 unit parlay NYM/UND..

Not interested in a side in Cincy cause both teams are playing better . Sampson vs some tough LH should be interesting. Harang was sharp vs Houston last year but new addition Carlos Lee is swinging a hot bat. Harang has not been sharp past 2 outings and I would be cautious here. Sampson is solid but you dont how lonh he can go so that puts the pen on teh spot again....

Good Luck.....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

A-T-L

Add:

Cubbies -107 {6units} -2.5 RL +205 {.75units}
Most H,R,RBI....Renteria -110 vs Ramirez {1unit}(looking for better price)

Notes:

basically a play endorsing Zambrano. When do you get a #5 Sp at even money vs ance and Cy Young canditate??? Here you do. In what few turns he has took at Turner he managaed 0.75 ERA across 2 starts. Pinella sort of called him after blwoing a 5-0 lead with the bottom of the order coming up. He was nails on the road and a nite last season. Try 9-1 2.97 ERA and 208BB in 14 road starts and at nite 9-2 in 16 starts with a 2.51 ERA , 198BAA...

I like Davies but the extended rest can be an issue his few starts on more then 5 days have a produced a high ERA. With Soriano's absence Pie LH bat brings further balance to the lineup. Davies tends to struggle more with RH at the moment and look at what Chi had Lee and Ramirez.

This is his to chance to bounce back with ATL struggling vs RHP outside of Chipper , McCann and Renteria....Chipper 4/16 career but Renteria 10/26 he is the key as the table setter....

GOOD LUCK.....:cheers:

 

[Ale10]

I'm totally with you, in love with the Cubs today. -107 on a Carlos Zambrano - Kyle Davies matchup? Sign me up!

 

[SportsNut]

Central time

Add...

Pirates +128 {4.5units} ARL +180 {1unit}
Under 8.5 -110 Milw{1unit}
Under 4.5 -115 Milw {2units} -2.30
Over 9.5 -115 LAD {2.5units}

Notes:

Just riding Pitt believe it or not. Maholm has struggled some early and on the road. However 3 solid career starts vs MILW and the Brewers simply struggle vs LHP. The key is keeping Bill Hall in check thats the guy he has struggled with and Hall is nott the same as 2006. Could be a spot he responds in though after his poor play in the field. So again fading MILW vs LHP. LaRoche Hr maybe he starts to hit some and help the middle of the lineup.....

Colorado should have momentum here. I think we see a high scoring game . Lowe hasnt been that sharp in COl recently and while he has been good past few its still the road. Lopez is a question mark healthwise and facing LAD a second time ina short period....like LAD but that momentum factor scares me.....

BOL:cheers:

 

[Troutman]

Nice Hit on Halos under...I was leaning mets and over and was outside fixing the car my fiance wrecked and missed the game by 5 minutes....Oh well...Gl Nut

 

[SportsNut]

THANKS BOYZ!!!!!

catching up right now just got back from bball!

Some crappy 1st innings I see.....

Thanks and GL ...be back in a bit..:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

How's that Tribe staff holding up...??

bang,bang!:drinking: Leave Igawa iN!!!

To bad the Pirates just LOST The game.....bases loaded No out they dont score...I would guess its 4-1 before 3-2 and probably this half inning!

 

[SportsNut]

10 PM West Coast

Add...

Under 3.5 -125 Twins team {4units}

Notes:

Simple reason King Felix. We know how good he has been this year but check how good he has been Home or Away versus Minny in the past...they havent scored more then 3 runs yet...in 4 starts....

Looking at possible parlaying SEa and Under 7.5 and Sea and STL since SFG might be ina funk after yesterday


BOL:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

ML Parlay :

SD +110 , STL +110 , sea -235 , Und 7.5 Sea -130 {1/2unit} to get +5.06



Sea -215 / Stl +110 {1/2unit}

Good Luck:cheers:

 

[JRose5]

Good luck tonight SN. Gonna go with the King, as well. Twins under 3.5.
Couple of notes from the Royals Tigers game today:

*Really impressed with not only Meche's pitching so far, but his overall makeup. Before the game I wanted to mention that I thought he would put this game on his shoulders personally because he knows that was what he was brought here to do- win big games, stop losing streaks, etc. But I really wasn't 100% sure, yet. After the game they asked him that very thing and he replied, "That was on my mind from the time I tried to sleep last night," Meche said. "That's why they paid me to come here. I knew that going against Bonderman was going to be tough, and he pitched great. But we hung in there." Also, I'm impressed with the fact that he has pitched relatively deep into games each time he has gone out. I just think he has accepted and embraced the challenge that he has taken on of being the ace with a big contract. Early still, but impressive so far.

*The infield of the Royals defensively is pretty bad. With Grud out, that only compounds the problem. As you probably saw, Meche allowed 3 unearned runs. Gordon had an error throwing to 2nd on an attempted double play. Gordon has had quite a bit of trouble at third, Pena is IMO below avg. at short, same with German at second, but fortunately he can hit.

*Probably need to start going with Buck at catcher most of the time over LaRue. Buck took the Drew Brees attitude in the offseason when they brought in Larue. He's hitting .440 or something and I think he is solid defensively and calls a decent game. Some expect him to drop off, but the guy hit in ST as well. Big homer today.

*Soria, again, looked impressive. 4 k's in 2 scoreless innings. I think he might be legit. KC's bullpen certainly needs it.

*Hindsight is 20/20, but even before the Tigers took him out, I thought the Tigers should consider leaving Zumaya in. That guy just at times looks unhittable.


Thanks for the plays. GL. :cheers:

 

[The Farm]

great call on KC yesterday and the value NUT1