4.17

[SportsNut]

If for some reason I missed a question posted to me in the 4.16 thread just ask again. Its most probably an oversight on my part. I wasnt around that much rushed before I left and dead tired after 3 hours of bball when I got home. Plus wanted to start on the 4.17 card..and was busy catching up on Mondays events..happy I did real well in the NL but oh the AL...yikes...

+8.33units
-0.57units
-24.80units
+17.00units
+15.90units(-0.75u)
-6.63units
+16.35units (-1.50u)
-3.75 units
+16.90units
+2.93 units (-1.00 u)
-2.92 units
+3.05 units
-4.65 units (-1.00u)
+35.55 units
-8.48 units (-1.00 u)
+11.42 units

Early starts...

Wainright has been solid at home in his young career and well did well in his 2 opening road starts as a memeber of the rotation. The key here is Wainright has been death on RHB which is troublesome since the best Pitt can do is Duffy and LaRoche who is sluming and 3/25 against RH so far. They may opt to rest Nady(5/14 in day starts for a 244 team in day games) and use McLouth in RF who is 5/7 against RH this season to date. The Cards which everyone forgets run shop in day games...check last years numbers (37-19 3.44 ERA, 280 BA 5.25 runs per) this yr 4-0 with a .317 BAA , 2.94 ERA 26 runs in 4 games..Factor in that STL and Wainright closed at -137 (say -130) and at home he is only a quarter more...So while Gorzelanny is solid and pitched a gem last week at home vs STL this doesnt appear like a good spot to ride them. I am thinking this is 5-2 game maybe 4-1 ...there is no wiggle room for an UNDER but lean that way...the Pirates are 1-3 in days games so far scoring only 13 runs(4ERA though)...2006 18-37 with a 5ERA in day starts for Pitt....Gorzelanny in limited day work very good though which is why I dont mind and Under...situational alot working for a low scoring game...Cards need a win to split the 2 game series...

With the Cubs Soriano is definetly OUT after you guessed it another hamstring pull. This is the cold weather effect clearly. Aramis missed his 4th straight game today and I would think tough to believe he plays tmrw. So two big bats out and Jacque Jones slide to center..Floyd in at LF...a decent offensive replacement...

Really gonna wait till tmrw on this not a fan of Wade Miller but with SD bats I dont see how they can be favored in Wrigley. Wade Miller like most SP will probably have a bounce back effort like most did in there second turn. The PODS dont have much offense..3 run Hr down 11 doesnt count in my book.

BOL more to come....:cheers:

 

[frankiegotti]

i agree on the cubs game totally, if soriano is out that would be great news. Is it official?

 

[SportsNut]

i agree on the cubs game totally, if soriano is out that would be great news. Is it official?

Pretty much Frank...he said he wont play tmrw and will probably be out a good 5 days thats straight from his mouth. I remember with Mussina the Yanks guys were saying that Cashman had a hamstring avg of 21 days. Guys who pulled there hammy in his research ahd missed an avg of 21 days..then Flaherty went on to say yeah usually about a month. He has said he is trying to avoid the DL but doesnt seem good..

Final confirmation may not come to lineups are out....go to Yahoo Sports Preview for tmrw and todays game recap it talks about it saying tehy will be w/o him:shake:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

GL I really like the Cardinals here!

 

[Terpman92]

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</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[SportsNut]

Day baseball

Thanks Terp and Believe...BOL today

Add...

STL -160 {5units} -8.00
Under 3.5 Pitt -130{2units} -2.60
Under 7 +115 {1unit} PUSH

BOL...:cheers:

 

[The Farm]

with you on STL NUT...

 

[SportsNut]

with you on STL NUT...

Kool....in a way happy to see the line move so much.. I played it a couple hours ago cause I couldnt sleep a wink last nite....finally feel asleep at 5:30 woke up at 8:30...managed to keep my eyes open till about 10:30ish when I knew I better play this now or I may not be up.....like I said last nite this line was cheap and I feel the move vindicated that..GL bro:cheers: 4-2

 

[Satyr]

good luck buddy.

 

[SportsNut]

quirky trend....Pitt has scored 3 runs or less in the past 7 @ STL...3runs 4x , 2 runs 1x , 1 run 2x...even 7 of 12 @ Pitt 3 or less...since the start of 2006..

 

[SportsNut]

good luck buddy.

:cheers:

 

[jimbo1227]

hey Sn, do u ever play the run, hit, error prop? they seem nice becuz its an o/u and if the team leaves a bunch of runners on base its alright cuz u get the hit.

 

[SportsNut]

hey Sn, do u ever play runs, hits, error props? they seem like nice, becuz its an o/u and if the team leaves a bunch of runners on base its alright cuz u get the hit.

Havent yet but one of these days when I have time to sit down and think about it I may start...I agree there is some value in them...think the STL game was like 25.....thats a bit low even if for a low total...but think its around 24 in the 1st game....one of these days I start yapping about them cause I have noticed them....:shake:

 

[RSMS9999]

what are your thoughs on the tribe/yankees game tonight?

 

[SportsNut]

Wrigley

Add.


Cubs +120 {1.50units} & ARL +220 {1unit} -2.50

Aramis Ramirez IN and Felix Pie has arrived!!! Miller is a scary proposition but he needs to get straight here. He was decent all Spring but hasnt been good when starting on more then 5 days rest and he is on long rest here....

BOL:cheers:

 

[imgn]

If Pie learns the strikezone ... taking pitches and hitting the curve
He could very well be up for good. Very athletic playa gl SN :cheers:

 

[imgn]

And what a way to debut in the bigs against Maddux

 

[SportsNut]

what are your thoughs on the tribe/yankees game tonight?

Kinda suprised at the total thinks it way to high..

Everyone seems to think Chase Wright is a bum. It's a rough spot making your ML debut @ the Stadium but its a great situation since its a LHP paradise. I cant give you anything on how he will handle this tonite. Looking at what e did in the spring and what I saw from him I think he is mature and poised though. He was solid vs Det on 3/30 facing the Tigers Opening Day lineup but better it was in Opening Day form so late in ST. Think 3runs and 7 hits in 6 innings. Now look at how RH heavy DET is compared to Cle and that was a tough, tough matchup for him. I think in relief during ST he allowed 2 hits in 7 innings prior to that start. Since then he went AA and blew through the competition 14 innings 4 hits 19Ks and no runs! Trying to figure out if he is on regular rest here but right now is the pitching prospect in the organization as he is ahead of Hughes who they are rightifully babying.

As I said great situation cause CLE vs LH is a plus for there opponent. They didnt hit John Dank or Joe Saunders much. Last year only 11-21 on the road vs LHP and a few of those 11 were vs KC. Westbrook for a few years now has seen a LARGE dropoff in production when he travels and with such a LH heavy lineup we are built to hit RHs. He has some good starts vs NY but they 19 and 22 run support probably helped out....

I am not running to pay to back a kid in his ML debut @ -140 but with Westbrook on the road and Tribe vs NY doesnt see much value either way. I dont see why Wright can 6 inn with 3 runs allowed...they have scored more then 4 runs since Martinez went down only once....I expect NY to win but not sure I pay to see it but might go with the under 10.5 ...although risky I feel comfortable that as long as neither SP is shelled worst case is about 6-4....You have teams on opposite ends of the spectrum with Cle getting 1 hit and gettinga n undeserved win while NY lost on the HR taking awaythey deserved to win...Westbrook 8-9 last year away but a big over pitcher which is what scares me about an Under since the Tribe pen is so-so..

I think CLE acquired some bats to help them vs LH this offseason with Garko and Barfield so it remains to be seen if they will be as poor as recent seasons....:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

If Pie learns the strikezone ... taking pitches and hitting the curve
He could very well be up for good. Very athletic playa gl SN :cheers:

Thanks IMGN...


Did another one of my experiment plays got sidetracked.....the premise is the game will not be decided by 1 run especially if SD wins...


SD -1.5 RL +135 {2units} -2.5 RL +200{1unit} -3.00
versus
Chi ML +120 {unit}and -1.5 RL +220 {2units} -3.00


Will be doing this in the Mets game and probbaly Boston and LAA games later as well....:cheers:

Mets -1.5 +135 {1.25 units} +2.02 & -2.5 +200 {1.25 units} +2.50
versus
Philly -1.5 RL +200 {2.5 units} -2.50

Experiment : -3.98 units

 

[SportsNut]

Shaky 1st inning defense and a mistake to LaRoche was all she wrote. Wish I had played some of the UND when it went to 7.5. Cards showing they still cant hit LH and the only thing I got right was guessing that the R,H,E Prop listed at 25 for this game would fall on 24 ...it landed exactly on 24! But I lost 10 units!

 

[jimbo1227]

damn SN, i just laid som on ov 28 r+h+e det/kc. looks pretty decent, and i was eyein this prop bet juan uribe to not strikeout +140- hes swingin a pretty hot bat and this pitcher isnt a k king

 

[YesSir]

like the Tribe tonight bro

BOL on others

Why isn't SD bunting? booked a SD bet so I am cheering with you

 

[SportsNut]

Nite Edition

Lots of stuff so bare with me...


Rays -110 {6units} -1.5RL +170 {1unit} +7.70
Under 10 -115 TB {2units} Painful PUSH


Jays +150 {3.5units} ARL +230{1/2unit} +4.75
Under 28 R,H,E -125 Tor {1.5units} +1.50
Under 9.5 -110 Tor {2units} +2.00


KC +1.5 RL -110 {2units} ML +180 {1unit} ARL +300 {1/2unit} +0.50
Under 28.5 -120 R,H,E KC {1unit} -1.20
1st inning score @ Det -115 {1unit} +1.00
KC to score first -105 {1unit} +1.00


ATL -1.5 RL -125 {2units} +2.00
Under 27 R,H,E Was {1unit} -1.10


Philly +110 {2units} ARL +200 {1/2unit} -2.50

Fla +1.5 -110 {2units} ML +190 {1/2unit} -2.70

Net +12.95 units

Notes:
Balt if I recall correctly was ONLY 5-21 vs LHP last season on the road and is now 0-2 this season. Fossum has a solid track record vs the O's and he was solid in Minny. Traschel has been real solid to my suprise so far. I expect that continue and look for a lower scoring game here...Also of note remember the trends about TB as a fav and Balt as road dog that I posted in yesterdays thread...

Boston is so-so vs LHP and has struggled in recet times @ Tor. Chacin has managed to win 5 of 6 vs them. Dice-K is real solid but I think we see a 4-3Jay win...

All KC is a continuation play. Went with them yesterday and lost. Seems that alot of times if not most when I play a dog and lose it tends to hit the next day. Pudge resting so the Tiger offense loses a key bat and well it doesnt look like they can afford to. Maroth has been solid vs KC in his career and making improvements everytime out. Yesterday somegood DET atbats in teh 1st and a wind aided GS got the scoring gates open...looking for more scrapping tonite

Expecting good SP from both. Williams hasnt got any run support and that tends to work in cycles....Braves not hittimg with RISP and I think we see a 4-2 win...

Philly gets to see Glavine again and NY hasnt seen Garcia. Though Garcia is a question mark with the injury and losing work at the end of Spring. He says he feels good and maybe avet like him can overcome not facing live hitters since NY is slumping past 7 games...

I worry about Oswalt tossing 120 pitches in 5 innings last start...Mitre has 2 real solid career starts vs Hou and I think this could be another close game....

Thats all I am burnt out right now be back later this evening 8:30 ish....Good Luck:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

like the Tribe tonight bro

BOL on others

Why isn't SD bunting? booked a SD bet so I am cheering with you

Took it on the chin in the SD game..so many missed scoring opps...went from making a couple small plays to making alot of plays and I stunk...:hairout:

I am not touching that game. I liked NYY had Martinez been out cause the lineup hadnt done much and I have confidence in Chase Wright. Now just watching as a fan...BOL

 

[SportsNut]

9:40

Add....

LAD +111 {2.5units} +2.78 ARL +170 {1/2unit} +.85

BOL:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Not watching Yankee game, how Wright look? Helps to get that kind of run support in your first start

GL on the Dodgers

 

[SportsNut]

Not watching Yankee game, how Wright look? Helps to get that kind of run support in your first start

GL on the Dodgers

Tx, Didnt watch the whole start saw beginning and end bits. Really considering the weather and his debut I thought he was fine from what I saw. What stuck out (again)was his poise and his changeup. Liked that people didnt look comfortable swinging against him. His velocity wasnt anything special but I know he can throw harder then 85-88 range here. Cold and rainy nite not ideal to pitch in. Really didnt see many balls hit especially hard off him. His fastball or at least the ones I saw seemed to be cutters so with a nasty changeup very solid...I think he can pitch in the majors now. Needs better control and command cant fall behind and have hitters sit on his fastball. Seemed to have better command of his change then fastball but that can be a matter of just trying to hard to hit spot. Considering he is finding his comfort zone I was impressed most with his poise. Its not like he was some golden boy but rather a kid who has battled and impressed the past year. Solid start for him to build on...should get the return engagement vs Boston this weekend...:shake: Oh and we forget the pen is real deep and solid. your correct nice run support is helpful but its the Yankees and they are certainly capable of this every nite........

 

[E.T.G.]

Of course they can do it everynight, but it takes a lot off you pressure wise I guess in any situation when your team lights the opposing pitcher up in the 2nd..

How bout ARod..I got him on both my fantasy teams, really loving that.

I am happy Wright did good tonight and I think the bullpen is pretty strong I just cant sit still when Farnsworth comes in. Be home in a month and back to the YES channel..

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Safeco

Seattle +102 {2.5units} -2.50
Under 9 -110 Minny {3.5units} -3.85
A's -110 {3units} +3.00
Under 26.5 R,H,E -115 {1.25units} +1.25

Good Luck!!:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Of course they can do it everynight, but it takes a lot off you pressure wise I guess in any situation when your team lights the opposing pitcher up in the 2nd..

How bout ARod..I got him on both my fantasy teams, really loving that.

I am happy Wright did good tonight and I think the bullpen is pretty strong I just cant sit still when Farnsworth comes in. Be home in a month and back to the YES channel..

:cheers:

Naturally the run support helps but he pitched the top of the innings and he had minor jams he got out of before that big 2nd inning. In the 1st he walked the 1st 2 guys then got 3 groundouts. He could have unraveled but didnt so then up 2-1 in the 2nd same deal. Walk and single to start the inning then a foul out , fly out and line out....so only 1 hit all nite with a man in scoring position...

It was on Channel 9 tonite.....:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Oh yeah and Farnsworth is absolutely the weakest link which as long as he dosnt get big situations I can deal with. He is no longer the setup man.

 

[MX_259]

Looking good so far this season Sports. Good Luck as it keeps going.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks MX...might have finished strong if Jeff Weaver didnt just pitch like um Jeff Weaver...2 out , 2 strike Grand Slam !!! Need a miracle for a split now....go DODGERS....