4/17 Bases

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
26-17-2 +$2346.69

Took Monday off after what was one of my worst days of gambling ever in my short career, the Yankee Under getting blown was just a sign to take the rest of the day off and than some. I finished 0-3 -$995 or so on Sunday. Last week was just an unforgiving week where I went 10-10-1 +$48, the good part is that it wasnt negative. I took some time out to really think about these picks, although no plays yet I have some idea where my money will be going.

Pitt +145 @ St Louie -155 O/U 7.5


Gorzelanny Overall: 1-0, 1.50era, 12ip, 11h, 3r, 2er, 9k, 1bb
VS. St. Louie this yr: 0-0, 0.00era 7ip, 4h, 0r, 5k, 0bb
On the Road: 1-0, 3.6era, 5ip, 7h, 3r, 2er, 4k, 1bb

Wainwright Overall: 1-0, 1.98era, 13.2ip, 12h, 3r, 3er, 8k, 7bb
VS. Pitt this yr: 0-0, 2.70era, 6.2ip, 7h, 2er, 4k, 4bb
At home this yr: Has not pitched

Pitt hitters vs. RH pitching: .233
St. Louie hitters vs. LH pitching: .241

Pitt on the road this yr: 5-2
St. Louie at home this yr: 1-6

Series this yr: St Louie 3-1

Pitt Bullpen: Torres has given up 3runs in 3 appearances vs. the Cards this season. Pujols hits .429 vs. Torres in his career.

St. Louie Bullpen: Izzy has been pretty reliable this yr, 4ip, 3sv, 2.25era, 2k, 1bb and not many Pirates have a big history vs. him.

Concerns in this game: Wainwright could be considered a little expensive imo. I just got done playing Wainwright vs. Pitt last week for -130ish. My concern with Wainwright is that he puts people on base with walks and usually they come back to hurt. Wainwright is sporting almost a 1:1K-to-BB ratio. My concern with Pitt in this game is when it is time to put the game in Torres's hands, not sure I am confident enough with him producing the save given his recent history vs. St Louie and his near troubles on monday night.

The under is low and the past series didn't exactly light the world on fire (5, 5, 3,5). I had a slight lean to the Pirates before Mondays game, not sure right now on a side but the under is a decent look still in what I could see being a 4-2, 3-1 type ball game, kinda worried one of these teams will eventually go off in this series but the pitching tomorrow is good enough to limit it.

Brewers +105 @ Reds -115 O/U 9

Bush Overall: 1-1, 5.25era, 12ip, 16h, 7r, 7er, 12k, 1bb
VS.Reds this yr: Has not pitched
vs. Reds career: 1-1, 6.55era, 22ip, 25h, 16er, 22k, 10bb
On the Road: 1-0, 1.5era, 6ip, 8h, 1r, 1er, 5k, 0bb

Belisle Overall: 2-0, 1.5era, 12ip, 7h, 2r, 2er, 9k, 2bb
VS. Brewers this yr: Has not pitched
vs. Brewers career: 1-2, 7.84era, 10.1ip, 18h, 9er, 10k, 6bb
At home this yr: 1-0, 1.5era, 6ip, 4h, 1r, 1er, 6k, 1bb

Brewers hitting vs. RH pitching: .269
Reds hitting vs. RH pitching: .250

Brewers on the road this yr: 4-2
Reds at home this yr: 4-3

Series this yr: Brewers 1-0

Brewers hitters Vs. Belisle: not enough significant atbats.

Reds hitters Vs. Bush: Dunn = .222 in 9AB, Hatteberg = .400 in 15ab, Phillips = .455 in 11ab.

Brewer Bullpen: Cordero: 5ip, 4sv, 0.00era, 9k, 2bb

Reds Bullpen: Weathers: 7.1ip, 5sv, 2.45era, 4k, 1bb

Concerns: Though just a small sample, Brewers have done a decent job knocking around Belisle where he has a 7.84era in 10.1 innings and has allowed 18hits. Bush's stats are not comforting either and Hatteberg and Phillips do a decent job of hitting Bush and overall in his career he sports a 6.55era in 22ip. Lead towards Belise after a Reds loss today.

Going through Fish/Stros, Giants/Rockies, and Dodgers/DBacks now.
 
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Marlins +181 @ Astros -196 O/U 8.5

Mitre Overall: 0-2, 4.09era, 11ip, 16h, 8k, 4bb
VS.Astros this yr: Has not pitched
vs. Astros career: 1-0, 1.38era, 13ip, 8h, 2er, 10k, 2bb
On the Road: Has not pitched

Oswalt Overall: 2-0, 3.32era, 21.2ip, 17h, 8r, 8er, 13k, 8bb
VS. Marlins this yr: Has not pitched
vs. Marlins career: 3-2, 1.98era, 50.1ip, 44h, 11, 38k, 17bb
At home this yr: 1-0, 1.08era, 16.2ip, 10h, 2r, 2er, 7k, 2bb

Marlins hitting vs. RH pitching: .271
Astros hitting vs. RH pitching: .204

Marlins on the road this yr: 3-3
Astros at home this yr: 2-5

Series this yr: Astros 1-0

Astros hitters Vs. Mitre: Biggio = .333 in 6AB, Everett = .400 in 5AB, Berkman is .200 in 5AB, Asmus = .200 in 5AB, Ensberg =.000 in 6AB.

Marlins hitters Vs. Oswalt: Cabrera = .222 in 9AB, jacobs = .333 in 6AB, Olivio = .250 in 8AB, Ramierez = .286 in 7AB, Willingham = .167 in 6AB

Concerns: I think Oswalt is overpriced here but you don't know what you are getting with the first yr starter in Mitre. RL is out of the question because I could see an Astros 1run win as much as I can see a Marlins win. Sergio Mitre is the X-Factor here because a decent game from him and 3-4 runs from the Marlins and they can win this game. If Mitre looks bad than the Marlins might not be able to recover if the Stros jump out. The Marlins bullpen is a concern and anytime Brad Lidge steps on the field the Astros bullpen is a concern, although Wheeler is easier to watch. If any play in this game, I would take a shot with the dog although that would be putting faith in Mitre on the road for the first time.
 
I commend you for taking a day off and calling it quits early on Sunday. Awful day as you said with the bad beat as the icing but the good part is it didnt cost you any of your money just what you had taken last week from THEM...
 
GoBucks - Still looking at that game, GL to you
Gotti - There is some value with the fish.. Still thinking bout it..GL
Nut - Thanks a lot, I am happy I walked away early and stayed away yesterday, got a clear head now. GL
Renew and Santa - Hopefully we get things going today..GL

Alright, Went through some other games but dont have time right now to get the info up there, gota goto some class.

For me right now the Under 7 in the Cards game is a no play, I would have maybe taken 7.5 but not 7 and I am not going to lay -160 with Wainwright today. This game is a no play as of now..

All of the other games start later today so I have some time after class to get back to this.

Oswalt is -201 now but my fish should be +191, where is my .10cent line BetJam? Fish only +183 but still a decent shot..

Reds are now -128, guess I missed the boat yesterday on that game, still not laying that much but I hate when I could of had a team for much cheaper like -115.
 
Going to keep this simple since confidence is an issue right now for me, I am only playing 1 game today....

Looks like Wainwright didn't have his best stuff today and Gorzelanny is pitching pretty good, easy to say through 3 innings but 5-0 Pirates.. Under could be decided soon.

I need to get back in the swing of things..

Cinci $492 to Win $400

Like many of the reasons stated above, I like Cinci after a loss yesterday to take this game. Bush has had his share of trouble visiting Cinci and Castro, Hatteberg, and Phillips all hit Bush pretty good. I am looking to get 6 -7 innings from Belisle and think its a 5-2 type game, a pretty different game from yesterdays 10-6 Brewer win..

Off to the library for the next few days..
 
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