4.13

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Cubbies -150 {3units}

Looking at the whole situation this is a win the Cubbies need and want after dropping two at home to Houston. Now dont confuse that with being due cause Chi sends out its ace SP which translates into there stopper. Whatever your team is ur ace is the SP who should be ending losing streaks.

Now we have Cincys ace Harang on the flip who has pitched very well vs Chi. Thisis the Cubbies best lineup by far in recent years though. Harang was sharp allowing 6 hits and no earned runs in 7 innings in the opener. This is the rematch. For the most part I tend to look for the opposite to happen in rematches especially if the so called underdog or lesser talent one. Just sort of how everything evens out over time. So I do look for the SP to sort of reverse outings here from the earlier meeting. Harang is the KING of inconsistency. Just look at his two years in Cincy. One year great at home then next great on the road, one year great in day starts the other at nte. He is a solid pitcher who is unpredicatble..you will get innings from him but the grey area is the 2 hit shutout Or 5 run effort....Zambrano seems to suck in his 1st outing every season vs Cincy and then rebound/progress. Before last year Carlos was awesome in day starts but that didnt hold up at the end of 2006.

It's so ironic that the Cubbies have struggled in Day games recently(talking about 06 not the 1-5 start here) . With Cincy failing to hit/score in Zona I dont see why the cold weather and better SP will help them do so here. Dunn hit a couple solo Hrs in the opener and Zambrano competiveness will put extra emphasis on those atbats. The Reds will probably start an all LH OF Dunn , Hamilton and Griff...outside of those bats who would I worry about...?? Encarnacion just got benched for dogging it and is RH , Castro will start at ss cause Gonzo is out a few days (he happened to hit Zambrano well), Phillips..Ross...Hatteberg..??

Zambrano has to focus on not making those LH bats beat him. The benefit of facing Harang should be his career BAA to RH of 283 compared to 260 vs LHB...Ramirez , Lee , Soriano

Thats it all all I have time for now....not a cheap price but I like ChiC here.....:cheers: Good Luck

 
Thanks Imgn....yeah that kinda sux though I didnt see that yet. Basically I dont see this game being close anyway...5-2 type....obviously prefer Ramirez in the middle buts its the situation , the SP rematch , with all the RHB's for me...

BOL:cheers:
 
From the looks of the write up - ur banking on Z more than
anything else. Here's hoping he has his command today :cheers:
 
imgn said:
From the looks of the write up - ur banking on Z more than
anything else. Here's hoping he has his command today :cheers:
Click to expand...

Exactly...very much appreciate the help. Had it been D.Lee I probably would have backed out of it....:cheers: BOL today
 
7:05

The first bunch of games tonite we have: feel like taking some chances here


Philly +100 {8units} -8.00
Nats +185 {1.5units} -1.50 / +1.5 -105 RL {2.5units} +2.50
Over 4 -105 Nationals team {5units} -5.25
Over 9-105 Nats {2units} -2.10
SFG +145 {5units} +7.25
Red Sox -106 {4units} +4.00
Jays -145 {4units} +4.00
Indians +105 {5units} -5.00
Under 9.5 -115 Indians {3units} -3.45
Over 4.5 -115 Balt {4units} +4.00
Over 8.5 -115 KC {2units} +2.00
Under 8 -120 Hou {2.5units} -3.00

net -4.55/-4.50 earlier..-9.05


Notes:

Thought real hard about making some sort of play with Philly on the +1.5 RL but decided to pass even though the price wasnt that bad 180 range.

So far in 2007 Oswalt has been the sharper of the two SP but I think Myers may have edge here in the cooler weather. Looking at this game I dont see this as a coin flip. I cant say that Oswalt on the road is significantly better then Myers at home. I would agree slightily better but not very significant. Where the edge lies is the fact Philly has more quality LH bats then Hous does. Berk is only 2/13 lifetime vs Myers. Hopefully barajas gets the start since he 5/18 vs Oswalt thanks to Interleague. Really both pens are shaky here but you have to wonder what happens if Lidge is involved. So basically I see the SP slightly lean towards Hous but the lineups really in Phillys favor here. They have nt played all that poorly in the 2-7 start if you recall they have lost 3 games in the opponents last atbat...5-4 looks alot different...

Hous was +150 dogs in Chi and I just cant see how they get upgraded so quickly even with Oswalt on the hill...okay saw Barajas and Werth IN which is a plus at 9/26 combined career vs Oswalt.

Patterson is winless in his past 10 starts vs NYM. However I still value in them. Pelfrey is top prospect but still trying to make the team for good.

pixel.gif

Mike Pelfrey gave up four runs in five innings Sunday against the Astros, but he was told after the game that he'll be the Mets' fifth starter. (3/25)

Mike Pelfrey was pounded for eight runs in four innings by the Devil Rays on Saturday.(3/31)

The Mets' fifth starter allowed three runs -- two earned -- on five hits in six innings while walking three, hitting two batters and striking out two. "I threw a lot more changeups and I threw a lot more sliders than I usually would," Pelfrey said. "I'm just trying to get a feel for it and work to execute pitches."(4/8)

So after thinking about that I dont expect him to be that sharp. Wash has hit the ball they have just repeatedly failed when having MOB. They just faced Smoltz , James and Hudson. The key is the 1st inning as they are always looking up. Patterson settled down after a rough 1st inning last outing and he is making progress towards the SP he was. Now he doesnt like the cold much which is an obvious negative tonite. However ist better then the 40degrees last start. Pelfrey had few strikeouts in ST and his Class A which shpuld be worrisome. With belliard in teh 2 spot I like WASH lineup much more though after the 6 spot they are getting almost nothing.....not sure they can win but think they can keeo it close..

Short and sweet to the point with SFG. The Pirates have not hit scoring just 4 runs in 3 games at home. They face a guy who is past his prime in Ortiz but since day 1 of ST has looked solid. He tired some in his last start and then got hit. Sure his 7-1 career record should not be relied upon but he has had success vs this team. Duke faced a Bonds less SFG team last year so I dont really look at numbers. The Giants have faced 1 LH and that was Wolf and they came close to blowing that game open early but a bases loaded DO killed them ....canmt see the value in taking a team that is clearly not hitting.....


With BOS Lackey has 1 career win vs Boston in 10 tries..thats LAA has 1 win in 10 starts by Lackey vs Boston. Wake although not that recent has been tough at home vs LAA. Simply fading Lackey here

With Tor simply riding Halladay. The man is tough at home and even minus Glaus I see alot value here. DET didnt do much vs anyone other Ohka who made a costly error. The bats are still quiet and dont think they errupt here. Also I thought if DET felt anything from that xtra inning game in Balt then travel to Tor it would be here. Its usually the second day where fatigue sets it after the adrenaline runs out...

Last week Tribe is favored in Chi now the reverse?? Javy looked sharp vs Minny but I dont trust him yet...while Carmona has great stuff and high upside....I dont see why Chi would be favored here after being home dogs......

Duckworth has just been a different SP on the road. Decent at home but much different away. This is not a RH heavy DET lineup.....

BOL.....rolling the dice tonite:cheers:
 
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Just not enough time for me. Decided Boston was a play and Phillie a pass and they were both going on---GL
 
Thanks tuck...it takes alot of time to get this shit done while I am trying to make decisions. Its not ez for sure...BOL today....

Thanks Jrose....BOL



add:
Braves -105 {2units} -2.10
Parlay -105 Atl and Over 9 +110 {1unit} cashes for +3.10 units -1.00

BOL:cheers:

-11.15 units & -1.00 ML Parlay so far
 
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Nothing special @ 8 PM

Short on time.....

I am really down on the Twins offense otherwise I would have laid the Twinkies ML...


TB +1.5 -105 {2units} Ml +205 {1/2unit} +3.03
cards +109 {3units} PPD

The heading says nothing special cause thats the truth. I though about middling the Cards play but figured UNLIKE the Braves game I will go with my 1st instinct. There it was to play the Over bit switched it to ATL.

BOL:cheers:
 
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Late Nite

Add:(-8.12 units / -1.00 ML parlay early plays)


Under 8.5 +110 Seattle {5units} +5.50
Mariners -101 {3units} -3.03
Yanks +100 {4units}
Dodgers -130 {5units} +5.00


Notes:
In Seattle two offense who are struggling recently oppose 2 SP with long track records vs there opponents of quality outings. Think Sea squeaks one out at home.

With NY although Haren ahs pitched well he has lost. Tonite I dont expect him to pitch as well as the 1st wo outings. Its Ny who on an indivual basis outside of Giambi who hits Haren fairly well. Haren has a track record of a tough luck loser and alot of times these guys pitch well and lose only to shit the bed when it looks like they are due for a win. Thinking UNDER but pasing..

Lowe at home.....with the LAD facing a LHP. They should get Furcal back and SD is just not hitting much....

:cheers: BOL
 
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Cant even began to believe some of the moosings I will take tonite....O's and Nats left about a kabillion baserunners on tonite...Nats base jucied 3x with 1 out or no out and get just two....O's 4 runs after 3 and none since..13 baserunners in 5 innings! Sad..I wish I had some good luck
 
Been watching the O's Royals game SN. Orioles definitely should have capitalized on those scoring opportunities. Duckworth was absolutely terrible. Its amazing they only have 4 runs. Then Sweeney hasn't helped much either, as he continues to strand runners, hit into dp's, etc. GL on the late games. On the other side with Oakland, but you make very good points. Took the Padres/ Dodgers under. GL.
 
Very nice ! Its sad that I am the point where I have a good feeling of what will happen in games. See the markakis bat taking forever so I go upstairs and say when I come back he will have hit a GS. There is no way this many opps could be taking so long and the sheer length of time for teh ab is a bad omen......walk back down check my laptop GS.....

There have been alot of times I have been on the flip side of the GS......like the one randy Johnson gave up on a Friday afternoon a few years back in the 9th....

Anyway it never evens out though cause Nats had more opps then Balt and did less..cost me a +185 play and team over......

I wont even get started with the other donkey plays that have an dwill hit today.....Harang and the Reds.....gimme a break....Zambrano probably wont blow FIVE 5-0 leads in his career ....I dont mind being wrong if my analysis is off but some ofthese today are comical.....

Good Luck with Oak....made that one 4 units BTW....:cheers:
 
See paybacks a bitch.....lose the Cle total on 2 FC's and Howards singles ONLY to have Victorino thrown at home...thats why winning the BALT total mean shit should WIN all three....
 
Seriously wish I had the donkey mentality . You know the guy in poker who is so sure he is making the right play and is just totally clueless. Today we have people betting Cincy cause Harang is on the hill...shelled and win...we have people betting Houston cause Oswalt is even money ...shelled and will win.....Vazquez cause they dont know who is Carmona is..at least Carmona get shelled cause Javy should have been 13 baserunners in 5.1innings......

Once could I be totally wrong and get paid anyway......frustrating is understatement. The Astros winning is the biggest JOKE of the season.....At elast I can kick myself for flipping from Over 8 in Philly to Under and from over 9 atl to atl....thats stupidity......just once it would be nice to get some breaks on correct analysis......
 
I see your point SN. The thing is, I think of you as one of the top connosseurs when sports and sports betting is concerned, hands down. Whereas I can see myself engaging into a conversation about the NBA, since I've been following it myself for more than a decade now, even though you're way more experienced there as well, this being my 4th year of even following baseball, 5 years ago I didn't know who Johnny Damon, Vlad Guerrero, Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte or David Ortiz were, just to get the picture, I was a total blank page about the sport, but slowly got into it.

Still, your writeups (alongside buffetgamblers) are second to none, and I do learn a lot from it. Since as I said, I'm rather inexperienced in MLB, and my unit size is lower here than in NBA or NHL.

The point is, I cashed in today because of not being aware of things. I saw D-Train starting for FLA, liked the thought of another letdown for ATL after last night, and went for it. Checked some numbers first of course, since I don't make plays based on 2 facts, but take into consideration more parameters, but that was basically it. Also checked out CWS with Vasquez, thought they'll do it.

So I do get your point, and know the feeling since I've seen some guys on a European board cash in some NBA bets I lost, they were on the other side because of NOT BEING AWARE of things at all.

But that's betting for you, sometimes it's just like that. The only consolation is, on the LONG RUN, it's real, in depth knowledge that does the trick.

GL :shake:
 
That wasnt directed at you Satyr or anyone for that matter. It's like you turn on the news and everyone says the samething . It was more about the mob mentality saying the same thing over and over again and yeah it frustrates me.

There are just some people in life who can be total clueless and step in shit no matter what.....stocks , real estate , sports gambling , poker...

I am sure If look enough places I will say many people saying oh the Marlins are a trap. They are baiting you on them. Well I thought that game was gonna go fly way over cause I thought ATL bats would explode however I dont see how FLA would be a bad bet.....the fact is show me what ATL has done vs a LH SP so far?? Nothing so I gamebled on ATL and lost thats the way it should be...

Having to watch the Cubs blow a 5-0 lead knowing peeps are betting the Reds cause of Harang. Well what is special about Harang that gave Cincy an edge here? Oh he pitched well in the past...well do people think about who he pitched against, how both teams were playing..no the see positive stats and make a bet......Oswalt's a dog so he is attractive...how is that? The Stros suck on the road and hit even less away...what makes Hous better then 50% to win this game?? Nothing they got flat lucky......8hits but 9 runs and Oswalt is shelled......

Here 's the flip people arguing in afriendly manner about taking Santana @ -180 @ CHi last week. Today everyone likes Santana? Do they even know why? No one cared to realize they scored like 4 runs in 3 games vs NY minus Farnsworth meltdown and got 3 runs yesterday vs Fossum....so ur gonna lay 2 to 1 when your team aint hitting and worse facing a LH when yiour 2 best bets are LH ..well if Kazmir is pitching even at poor rate why expect more then 3 runs today....?? yet people woul lay 220 today simply cause Johan is home and wouldnt last week cause he was away...

Its frustrating to know whats gonna happen and lose on bad breaks ....the A's were attractive cause Haren is starting for Oak and Igawa for NY...cause Igawa sucks.....I tell ya Haren will struggle but he gets bailed out by facing Giambi twice in key spots the Yankee who hits least against him. Igawa is pitching well but Abreu loses a ball in the lights for the A's cheap run.....again dumb luck...

The right side always win and well my plays werent right. The decision making and analysis were but the breaks werent on my side...

Then I look at the games I won...SFG never in doubt...Boston fading Lackey win 10-1....., Tor cause of Halladay and he goes 10 STRONG , but lose plays on FC in the b10th or Nats who have the bases juiced 3 times in the 1st 6 innings and score TWICE....!

The long run doesnt matter really until Ican play a $1000 a game cause the money isnt significant. I am beyond confident after doing this for years I know there is no conspiracy its simple takes work to be successful....losing doesnt worry me nor does the long run.....the only thing I worry about is my decision making. I must have plyed 70% of the board and well I am probably gone be 9-0 on whatever I didnt...I am watching these late games knowing I almost played the Yankee Under 9.5 , almost played LAD over 8 , LAD over 3.5 -140 team , Col +1.5 -125 , U8.5 Zona....so more importantly why didnt I play those ..why wasnt on heavier on TB when I had nailed down...this is the shit that frustrates me...or why Torre didnt PH Phelps just now...

I am and always be a perfectionist. I dont enjoy medicority at all....having a great handle on a card and winding up with medicore results will eat at me to no end...:shake: Sorry I waste time with this shit but I need to get it out of me. I dont expect anyone to comment. Just getting on paper so to speak gets it off my mind...





 
That is now twice that Igawa has struck a batter out but the ump failed to make the call. Now both times that batter HRed..
 
Thank You Kyle......have to love how this guys has regressed since coming to NY.....people had there concerns about him and he hasnt even been that guy .....he is that much worse now.....
 
Exactly hwy Torre is a clown. Guy blows the game in minny shows no emotion and you put out there in a 1 run game....smart..
 
SN I know it wasn't directed at anyone, I just stated an example of how sometimes a less skilled/knowledgeable bettor can end up having the upper hand over a more skilled/experienced one. I know that you're talking about a slightly different thing, this was just an example.

Cheers buddy, I'm sure you'll be back to winning ways soon.
:shake:
 
Well if NY wins and Sea goes Under I am winning ......like it said its not winning that concerns me its maximizing everything...It's not about losing cause like I said I dont get overly concerned about it. I lose if I make bad decisions plain and simple except for these occurrences when I make good decisions and lose......maybe thats arrogant but you have to have believe in yourself....just once I want to get the good breaks....getting a GS in the b8th isnt a break when they had 40 chances to score. I want the no business type winning Luck....if Balt was hitting with MOB every inning you would expect eventually one guy to get a hit ...

Tonite should have been +25 units or so......not hoping I grind out +1 or +2 units.....

Why were you lucky..my flaw tonite is the same in all my losses...I faded small road chalk....look at it same MO everywhere...
 
Sorry , that was bad baserunning....Alex didnt have to hold cause Chavez went after the ball and no one was on third base he could have wandered off some...suprsed douggie didnt bunt...
 
SportNut, all I can say is that I understand you, man.
To tell you the short story about me and baseball - I've been playing it in high school for like 4 years here in Croatia and it's always been my n.o.1 sport. I discovered MLB in 2002 and started watching it over the Internet, staying wake all night long (because of the time zone difference which is ~7-8h) while enjoying it at the same time, no matter if I lost or won the bet(s). During that time, I started to "learn" each player, each club and develop that "hunch" which isn't based on pure stats and numbers - it's based on different situations which occured in the past games. That hunch has served me well over the last 5 years but since 2005 I've had the same problem as you have (I guess): I don't trust it enough to play it, and guess what - like 90% of those games I pass but have a "hunch" who might win - the outcome happen to be just right! Of course I'm mad at myself afterwards because of that, and I always promise myself not to do that again, but to trust myself enough and pull the trigger (usually I've got the hunch on some nice dawgz liek Tampa last night) and not to play only those games I pick mostly based on pure numbers. Anyway, last night, believe it or not, I started to write down my analysis of those games I took - Cubs with Big Z, Phillies, Nats as solid underdog, Toronto with Doc pitching and Cards with Reyes. The outcome of those 5 games are well known. "Luckily", my Internet connection went down for some time just before I finished my 3rd analysis so I decided not to post them. But the interesting thing is that I was feeling good about the other 3 games - Rangers, Tampa and Giants but PASSED on them because I (again) haven't trusted my huch feeling enough... :hairout:

Bottom line - we both gotta start believing in ourselves a little more. :cheers:

P.S. Sorry for my not so great english.
 
SN,
I understand your thoughts and frustrations and, as always, appreciate your analysis on games. I read your stuff everyday and have learned plenty. However, I do have to take issue with one part of your argument regarding the A's / Yankees game. While it is true that the first run the A's scored was a cheapy (I was at the fridge getting a beer, that always seems to happen), much the same could be said about the Yankees first run. Cabrera hit a dinker back to the Haren and Haren overthrew first for a 2 base error. He went on to score.

As far as betting the A's last night (and I imagine you weren't directing your comments at me, or anyone else in particular), I didn't just bet them because Haren vs. Igawa. Was he a big part, yes. He has shown over time that he is not intimidated to pitch vs. the Yankees and performed very well. Not many pitchers can say that. And while I didn't think Igawa would be as bad as his numbers looked his first time out (and excellent points in the other thread about how he did not pitch that bad the first time out. Very good insight that can only be found from watching the game. I try and offer the same thing with the Royals, as I watch almost all of their games.) he is still a young, inexperienced MLB pitcher who was facing a lineup that is struggling, but is experienced and posesses some very good hitters. Etc.

It wasn't a large bet for me, and who knows if it was the right side- as it took extra innings. Middle relief blew it for both teams. (BTW, how important is middle relief!? How many times do games get blown by these guys? That is a big, big part of the Royals problem. That's a discussion for another time). And, frankly, I don't like being on the other side of you, as that is a long term losing proposition.

Hopefully some of this made sense, as I am still kind of drunk. Went out with a couple of girls last night. One was from New York. Man, from my experience, they sure do talk a lot- lol, which is good imo. Best of luck today. Hopefully there will be some value with the Royals tomorrow when Greinke pitches vs. an undetermined spot starter for the Orioles. GL.
 
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