4.12

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
The early thoughts:

You have the rubber game of the Tribe/LAA series. Kinda interested in seeing this lineup tmrw cause I really like how on paper the Angels now match up well vs LHP. The hit Sabathia fairly well but the 26 runners LOB kinda killed them and we know LAA has the bullpen edge. Sowers hasnt been sharp his past 2 outings the HOF game vs STL and in Chicago...6 walks /1 K...Moseley has been solid since the beginning of ST and last year was last year the kid wasnt flat out ready. Now he is IMO. Without Victor Martinez and Hafner quiet so far I think LAA is the better team especially when Vlad gets to hit a LH which he did to the tune of 400 last year...so right now small LAA lean..also liked LAA 280 day avg last season..

The weather here is the NE is supposed to suck. With that I would be suprised if Boston or NYM is played. So not getting ahead of myself with those games. I would look at Washburn and Sea ML or +1.5. Boston still hasnt hit much and facing a LH could be a problem. Washburn has been solid @ Fenway in his career.

Really the same deal in Balt weather as well...sloppy conditions expected. While Traschel was solid at the Stadium I still want to fade him early. Meche is the better SP and depending on weather may take the over...waiting to see the situation though cause KC away is risky...

Its hard to not like Tor -120 at home where DET played extra inning sin BALTand had to fly up late. They have some momentum cause just think how long that flight is if they lose in extras! However just 8-21 L 29 @ toronto and the Jays are 4-1/5-0 vs LHP.....so team total over and the home team I am thinking...though maybe withOhka simple game over as well.

Right now really like Twins -160 and Under 10.5. The Rays have gone OVER every game this year but they didnt score after TEjada got chased and I expectthat dry spell to continue as Silva is one of my sleepers. The Twins should have some carry over from the late rally but this lineup isnt hitting all that much either of late. Fossum didnt look good but alot of the rough 1st starts returned with real quality 2nd outings.....19-9 vs LHP and 17-7 L24 at home..twins 12-1 last 2 years vs TB had won 14 straight before losing the finale last season....this total is abnormally high as well TBhas scored 4 runs or less in the past 7 meetings at the dome and only one game saw DDs in Minny...no 10.5 totals for sure in the eries...Silva 1 hit them in TB last Sept......so TB team UNDER

As I said pass on the Mets game due to weather seems unlikely they play. Really only interested in the over 8.5 in ATL if the weather is okay...

:cheers:




 
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I seriously have barely played anything these injuries are ridiculous. Is any one healthy anymore...I am happy to say I hit the UNDER 220 @ Memphis the other nite.....the only thing that passed my mind was PHO and I couldnt lay 14.5..maybe one of these days...

Thanks Terp....
 
Hey, I'll be looking for early action. I like LAA, too. How has this series being played at Brewer Park affected the games?
 
Really hasnt much. With a day game cant imagine much of a crowd. Sure its more of a home game for Cle but its still somewhat neutral...dont see the venue as much of a factor in my analysis..just waiting on lineups..
 
Right now really like Twins -160 and Under 10.5. The Rays have gone OVER every game this year but they didnt score after TEjada got chased and I expectthat dry spell to continue as Silva is one of my sleepers. The Twins should have some carry over from the late rally but this lineup isnt hitting all that much either of late. Fossum didnt look good but alot of the rough 1st starts returned with real quality 2nd outings.....19-9 vs LHP and 17-7 L24 at home..twins 12-1 last 2 years vs TB had won 14 straight before losing the finale last season....this total is abnormally high as well TBhas scored 4 runs or less in the past 7 meetings at the dome and only one game saw DDs in Minny...no 10.5 totals for sure in the eries...Silva 1 hit them in TB last Sept......so TB team UNDER


I liked the Under as well.. My concern? Fossum. I think Silva can do a decent job of control that offense. I took the RL because of the +130, as I think the Twins win this game by more than 1 run..

:cheers:
 
great stuff, Nut.

these little cards can be tough. i ended up small on Minny and KC...similar reasonings.

anyways, good luck with whatever you end up pulling the trigger on, bud.
 
Nicely explained.

I was thinking LAA, KC, MIN and TOR even before I saw your thoughts but now I'm even more confident in those plays. BOL, man! :shake:
 
nicely explained SN. I do like Minny at home today, think it will be a home team type of day, although you're making me rethink Cleveland.
 
excellent post SN.

WOW Unicorn is here. I hope you'll join the discussions soon buddy. I don't have that mobile phone any more, I'll call you up these days, possibly today.

Uživaj legendo. :D
 
btw guys, Unicorn is the guy who totally hooked me on liking the Halos :D. VLADDDYYYYY YOU GO BOY! :D

Mariners still my team though ;).
 
And yes, I like Toronto a lot here, thinking about the Halos, but leaning the other side of your MIN bet. Don't ask why :D. Fading the obvious :D
 
btw guys, Unicorn is the guy who totally hooked me on liking the Halos :D. VLADDDYYYYY YOU GO BOY! :D

Mariners still my team though ;).


If I were Mike Scioscia, I'd be smart enough to motivate my team to win 2 out of 3 from Indians before going to Fenway where they could expect a tough series (I see them taking 2 of those 4 games though, maybe 1st and 4th).

I'm also rooting for your Mariners - they're my 2nd favorite team, remember? Hopefully they'll have a much better season this year - the team chemistry should be on a good level at last ^^

P.S. Cujemo se kume!
 
P.P.S. Dismissed my KC bet, prolly gonna pass on that game - waiting for Meche to face some stronger club (at least on paper) and then take my chances with him..
 
Any opinion on the LA/Clev under NUT? I am leaning under just wanted the baseball guru's thoughts before i played it...There is always something that you can add..Thanks
 
Any opinion on the LA/Clev under NUT? I am leaning under just wanted the baseball guru's thoughts before i played it...There is always something that you can add..Thanks

Honestly Trout , I am about as NEUTRAL as one could be on a total here. I really dont expect a DD game but it could certainly take that route. What is troubling is the unknown commodities of the SP. Cle does it best work vs RHP but until Hafner starts hitting I think a RHP could keep them in check but Moseley is raw...thats only guess work. With the LAA I like the way they matchup vs Sowers but I still respect Sowers enough to think he will limit the damage...anything less the 4-3 would suprise me here think 5-4, 6-3 type game...but I could be easily off ...what scares about Cle is if Sowers isnt sharp that pen has to be relied upon . Only a handful of guys have been bad but Roberto Hernandez will see action if they are trailing and Borowski if they are winning so the weak links cant be avoided...

Really dont see an advantage to either play....:cheers:
 
Just seeing the lineups though they are watered down some. Dont like Kotchman , Molina and Willits at the bottom. Hillenbrand and Macias were better options IMO....dont like how Cle stacked 4 LH then 5 RHB's. How is Hillenbrand sitting 338 vs LH last year(2/5 early this yr)?? Just dont get it.....

So that would benefit an under play....still NEUTRAL though and now rethinking my LAA thought process:cheers:
 
SN, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the over in Toronto tonight, because I absolutely LOVE the bet. See my thread for writeup.

:shake: thanks in advance.
 
1 PM start

I am kinda disappointed in Hillenbrand not playing cause he is such a key weapon. So I will make the mistake of not playing LAA +128 or ARL....

Most Hits , Runs, Rbi's

Vlad vs Sizemore -120 {1.5 units}

Lets see Vald hit 400 against LHP LYR .401 35runs 10hrs , 31 RBI in 147abs...and 1/3 with a HR vs Sowers...while Sizemore is only 1/6 and 2/12 vs RH so far.....but 2/3 vs Mosely....
 
what you doing in that twins game?

taking the twins rl? ml? under?


Going Under 10.5 and Twins ML both big plays...dont lay -1.5 much with favs who dont have dominant SP going...expect a good outing from Silva but he still is a contact pitcher.....Just trying to figure out how much both at least 4 units it looks like...
 
SN, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the over in Toronto tonight, because I absolutely LOVE the bet. See my thread for writeup.

:shake: thanks in advance.

well there certainly doesnt apear to be a sound reason to play the under. As we have said the Jays are built to hit LHP ( have hit Maroth in the past)and that shows in there 355 clip so far. Then mix in Maroth struggles in Domes see 1-6 mark at the Metrodome and his poor numbers in 4 starts in Toronto and it would seem likely that Tor hits here( team over..??)...think at least 7 runs in the 4 games started by LH so far.....On the flip side hopefully Sheff switch to the OF will get his bat going...the Tigers are bringing new meaning to SLUMP but I have noticed that the guys they have faced RH have been all fairly hard throwers...I wasnt watching the games so I cant quote the exact MPH but Jaret Wright I would expect 92-96MPH range , Cabrera 93-98 MPH range , From what I have read Duckworth was consistently at 95 MPH in Spring , Meche is usually 92+ and can get above 95MPH , dont think I need to detail Halladay or Burnett's fastballs.....but ROY is like Meche and Burnett like Cabrera...so thats been the common theme....DET is a heavy RH lineup but only Sheff , Pudge and Mags are true 300 hitters, the rest are 250/260 types who hit the occassional longball but K alot...Monroe , Inge ....Polanco and Oudge you can overpower inside , Sheff is struggling with the DH role which leaves only Maggs...

So alot of DET issues has been poor matchups IMO...if it was just matchups though you would have expected some hitting vs the LHs. That didnt happen so its slow starts factored in with bad matchups...

Hopefully a soft tosser like Ohka high 80's can be what the doctor ordered. Some guys have hit Ohka well . Also was a fan of fading the NL starters going to the AL EAST.... here I wont do that in the sense the JAys have a good matchup as Maroth is working his way back...:cheers: oh its OVER or pass for me...
 
WOW man. Fantastic writeup thanks. This is way more than I asked for :D A true baseball connosseur, just great.

This is only my 4th season in MLB so mine (writeup) wasn't nearly as impressive, detailed or on the spot as yours, but I did aim at a lot of your points (DET bats breaking out of a slump now, Toronto hitting lefties well, etc).

Cheers & GL tonight.

:cheers:
 
Thanks guys....BOL

Sidetracked for awhile...just saw Cle won 4-2 wish I had the ballz to hop on when I say Hillenbrand out but tough to do when your original mindset is LAA. I just dont get managers these days....there job especially in baseball is put there players in positiosn wher ethey will succeed. After all isnt that how the platoon system came about and specialization roles in the pen. If Hillenbrand is healthy there is NO EXCUSE to have him on the bench.... lost my prop thanks to Sizemore's blast , an IBB to Vlad and Hafners game winner which scored Sizemore..what can you do Vlad went 2-3

Anyway not sure of the weather situation ...well I know the wind is blowing out at 32 MPH to left so certainly NO UNDER...

Mariners +160 {1.5units} -1.5 RL -125 {2.5units}
ML Parlay M's +160 / OV 10-115

:cheers:
 
Seems at the moment that I will stay away from the KC game....

Jays -125 [4units}
Over 5 -110 both team totals Det & Tor {2units each}
Over 10-115 Tor {3units}
Twins -153 {5units}
Under 4.5 TB -115 {4units}
Under 10.5 -110 Not sure if I stay with this..

:cheers: Good Luck


ARL nats +400{1unit}
 
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Recap...

Seems at the moment that I will stay away from the KC game....

(-1.80 early)

Jays -125 [4units} -5.00
Over 5 -110 both team totals Det & Tor {2units each}Push / -2.20
Over 10-115 Tor {3units}-3.45
Twins -153 {5units} +5.00
Under 4.5 TB -115 {4units} +4.00
Under 10.5 -110 {2.5units} +2.50

:cheers: Good Luck


ARL nats +400{1unit}+4.00

+3.05 for the day....1 run more for Jays is at least +10 more units...oh well.....
 
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You have Carl Crawford to thank first of all for your TB under 4 runs, one of the biggest bone headed base running errors I have seen in a while and then the MVP with a big walk off HR. Looks like you salvaged the night tonight and made it profitable.
 
What the hell happened there...saw Zobrist out at home and Crawford thrown out at 3rd for DP.....I got lucky there but just as lucky as a TB backer having Rincon thrown into the mix when he shouldnt have been...missed time with injury then funeral...
 
It was crazy Crawford hit a double down the right field line and they held Zobrist at 3rd because Cuddyer came up clean with the ball and Carl apparently running with his head down was almost standing on 3rd the same time as Zorbrist. Instead of Crawford running back to 2nd Zorbrist takes off towards the plate, Castillo throws home and Zobrist is in the run down.....then Crawford decides to go back to 2nd for some reason.....Mauer tags Zobrist near 3rd throws to 2nd in time to get Crawford........really thought I was watchin a little league game.

Not knocking your play I had nothing on the game but good win bro:cheers:
 
I know that KMacc...you were just responding to my TY Justin Morneau comment. I didnt mean to sound harsh or anything. We just always remember the last "odd" play was all I meant by it ...there breaks both ways and the one who gets the last won tends to win thats all...only a general comment...

BOL tmrw..
 
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