PM thoughts
AL:
The weather is a concern for me in my lean towards Over 9 @ Baltimore. My logic is that Verlander wasnt very sharp with 5 walks in the opener and getting him on the road is your best chance against him especially if you are LH heavy like Balt. Last year in Balt he went 6+ innings and allowed 3 runs. Dreckman seems to lean towards an over UMP with 300 pitches nearly per start you know he isnt giving pitchers much. The bullpens for both could get involved early if this is the case. As Loewen despite solid stats against NY also struggled vs NY and lasted only 5 innings. The same angle for him stacking the lineup with RH should be the key and we know DET is very RH heavy...the numbers dont jump out but Pudge , Sheff and Maggs vs a LH is a huge plus IMO...Grilli , Rodney and Mesa in the middle innings have not looked good but the back end guys have been sharp. The O's pen has been good outside of the Ray , Baez debacle at the Stadium...still both are hittable...
In Boston with Crawford behind the dish and heavy UNDER flow I could never take an UNDER. Look at Crawfords track record...12 runs per last year!!!!!!! Dice-K was so tough vs KC but that was a young team and Seattle is a veteran team that should have the edge with Ichiro . KC could have done a little more against Dice-K but they failed to get a clutch hit. King Felix I believe is back to his 2005 form . So while his road numbers werent so good I dont really rely on them. What I do know is neither pen impresses and if one SP fails then it could get lopsided real quick. You dont explode like BOS did and then revert back to nothing IMO. I think we see a 5-4 type game here...What I do like is Sea @ +165...
In Milwaukee , The UND 9.5 looks like value to me. Saunders is a decent SP who just happens to be LH. That is CLE flaw IMO and even more so with Martinzez out. Sizemore has gone 4/5 early vs LH but I dont expect anything close to that continue cause he hit 2 Hrs already of LH specialist! Westbrook has authored some excellent starts vs LAA. In 6 career starts he has 4 of them where he went at least 8 innings spanning 33.1 innings allowing 6 runs. He has one poor outing in LAA and another 7 + inning stint that is misleading. The boxscore reads 5runs in 7 innings BUT the Tribe kiled LA that day and they got 1 in the 7th inning and 3 runs in the 8th that were charged to Westbrok. So he was just throwing strikes probably and eventually got hit...He went 8 scoreless innings last year @ Miller so he should have some comfort there even though its no home persay....
With KC only 7-16 away vs LHP (2-8 1 run games) its tough to back them here today. DeLaRosa has been decent since the end of last year but Tor is tough on LHP 3-1/4-0 Over so far. Jays are 361 vs KC 204 vs LHP. Just a better of better bats and home field...DeLaRosa didnt pitch that poorly away last year losing twice to Johan and splitting with Cle who we know is okay vs LH ...
The game in texas presents almost the same situation as Toronto. Tejada has been near unhittable in a few of his starts and he look sto be on the right track. Right TB continues to struggle on the road especially with pitching. Shields as solid as he has been had real struggles on the road last year. Shields was 2-9 in his 11 road starts but he turned in some sound performances which leads me to a HEAVY UNDER lean....
Some may be suprised but I like Minny here. This is the highest price but Minnys best SP of the trio and NYY's worst AT THE MOMENT. Mussina is a creature of habit and routine. When that routine gets messed with he is out of sync. He routine got untracked late iun Spring and I dont think he is locked in. He wont trun it around in 1 start he will progress. On teh other side Ortiz has been mentored bu Johan Santana on the changeup. He already a very LH Balt lineup and shut them down , great pratice for this Yankee monster...so I wouldnt recommend an Over and wil pay Twins or +1.5 RL....
Thoughts/Plays:
Over 9 Balt/Det Even
Under 9.5 -115 LAA/Cle
Mariners +168
Jays -170
Tex -155
Under 10.5 -105 Texas
Twins +145 Or +1.5:cheers: Be back when I know
