4-1 SUNDAY DISCUSSION

[BJPLAYER]

Sox under 8.5 worth a look.....both pitchers have decent start to their careers and neither team hitting

 

[TW66]

Surprised books have this O8 -124

 

[scarf31]

Bauer in days starts the last 3 years...big time lean to the under and a definite lean toward the Tribe...Leake also notoriously famous for hugely different splits day/night

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...nd+DAY+and+season+>=2015&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[TW66]

Another surprising total is the Yanks / Jays U8.5 -109.......Last year the Yanks gave Gray horrific run support ..albeit different team this year....Jays offense not clicking at all....not a fan of Stroman...but definitely capable

 

[Inspekdah]

Going off my gut and spring training eyes has been OK to date. Knew Jays offense was hurting, and certain pitchers were in great or bad form.

Today, the 0-2 Cards try to avoid a sweep against an awful form Matz. Weaver has been in great form this spring and I see them getting a win on the spread and the RL.

 

[mrpickem]

Another surprising total is the Yanks / Jays U8.5 -109.......Last year the Yanks gave Gray horrific run support ..albeit different team this year....Jays offense not clicking at all....not a fan of Stroman...but definitely capable

Stroman 4-0 at home vs NYY last 2 years...I know yanks are much better now...just sayin

 

[TW66]

Stroman 4-0 at home vs NYY last 2 years...I know yanks are much better now...just sayin

lol....being a homer....I'm still just not a huge fan.....I never give him credit which is bad on me....:shake:

 

[mrpickem]

I posted an 8 years old undefeated trend in NBA - link
here's a couple umps with great favorite records at beginning of season going today

 

[mrpickem]

Ran across this idea on doubleheaders, what do you guys think?

I'm already invested in Fulmer, just thought this mildly interesting concept

When betting a doubleheader you would bet $100 on an underdog to win Game 1. If your team wins, you are done for the day, and congrats on your profit. If your team loses then you come back and bet $100, again on the underdog, in Game 2. If your team wins the second game you will still earn a small profit on the day. If your team gets swept then, well, you have played two dogs it is not that bad situation. Just start counting the days until the next double-dip.

The thing is that historically only 26.2 percent of doubleheaders end in a sweep. That means that if you play the dog you will win money in three out of four doubleheaders. There aren’t many systems in any sport where you can win 75 percent of the time.

Use the doubleheader betting system as often as possible because the Powers in Major League Baseball are doing everything they can to ensure the doubleheader’s extinction. Or at the very least ensure its permanent place on the endangered species list. Back in 1945 doubleheaders accounted for a whopping 48 percent of all MLB games played and from 1926 to 1967 at least 20 percent of the total games were played as part of doubleheaders. However, since 1986 doubleheaders have made up less than five percent of all games and currently they represent slightly less than two percent of all games.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Sox under 8.5 worth a look.....both pitchers have decent start to their careers and neither team hitting

Both starters had poor spring training stats this year

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Stroman 4-0 at home vs NYY last 2 years...I know yanks are much better now...just sayin

Gray was sharp in ST, stroshow less so

 

[BJPLAYER]

Both starters had poor spring training stats this year

JOTS....good point and i had not considered it other than valazquez throwing 4 shout innings in his last appearance....i have played it but may hedge out live if i don't like the way it is going early....thank you

 

[Gyno]

Any reason to not like Jays TT under 4 +100

 

[Inspekdah]

Did something positive happen with Otani? How is he favored?

 

[tuck321]

On a stat sheet Cole is listed on 8 days rest.
Cole loves 4 days rest
Big drop on 5 and bigger on 6 plus
changing teams may change that but that ref does not seem to have many Houston wins
Just a warning

 

[tuck321]

Toronto was also a very good Sunday team

 

[Inspekdah]

On a stat sheet Cole is listed on 8 days rest.
Cole loves 4 days rest
Big drop on 5 and bigger on 6 plus
changing teams may change that but that ref does not seem to have many Houston wins
Just a warning

How about the other side? Perhaps a over total play?

 

[scarf31]

Ran across this idea on doubleheaders, what do you guys think?

I'm already invested in Fulmer, just thought this mildly interesting concept

Isn’t the fundamental flaw in this though Mr. P, when different teams are favored in the 2 games and the face wins both?

Do you mean betting 1 unit on the underdog first game and then betting to win 1 unit on the G1 winner in game 2 to break even?

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your scenario though.

 

[Inspekdah]

Isn’t the fundamental flaw in this though Mr. P, when different teams are favored in the 2 games and the face wins both?

Do you mean betting 1 unit on the underdog first game and then betting to win 1 unit on the G1 winner in game 2 to break even?

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your scenario though.

I think you're right. It assumes you can get plus money on the same team in both teams. In today's game, if you lose the dog, you could play the same team in the 2nd leg but you would then be potentially losing juice on top.

 

[mrpickem]

Isn’t the fundamental flaw in this though Mr. P, when different teams are favored in the 2 games and the face wins both?

Do you mean betting 1 unit on the underdog first game and then betting to win 1 unit on the G1 winner in game 2 to break even?

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your scenario though.

Yeah, I'm thinking it expects the same team to be dog both games. Thats probably the case most of the time...I'm guessing

looks like 29 DH last year and 4 different favorites, one the 2nd game wasn't played for some reason? Rain maybe

Dogs 13-16 in game one link

Dogs were 6-6 after losing Gm 1 as dog and still the dog link

Dont play the 4 that have different favs and you make about $1000 betting $100 is my estimate

 

[Inspekdah]

Any trends about a team on 2nd half of double header off a shutout?

 

[mrpickem]

Any trends about a team on 2nd half of double header off a shutout?

Here's the trend. In 8 years, home team only shut out 6 times in Gm 1, the went on to win and cover RL 4 of the 6. Also of note, 5 of the 6 stayed under in the nitecap.

double header = 2 and p:runs = 0 and H and season >= 2010

View attachment 31870

 

[mrpickem]

Isn’t the fundamental flaw in this though Mr. P, when different teams are favored in the 2 games and the face wins both?

Do you mean betting 1 unit on the underdog first game and then betting to win 1 unit on the G1 winner in game 2 to break even?

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your scenario though.

This was explained vaguely and sounded good but when you run the numbers..it's a loser
His theory was bet 1 unit on dog and if you lose bet 1 unit on dog in Gm 2. If you win game 1 you're done.

I ran the numbers for last 5 years and here they are

View attachment 31871

He was close on the account that only 26% get swept as it figured to 26.8% here as 33 dogs were swept of 123 games. The flaw in his logic is you are bascially laying 200 to win 100's worth of dog action in 2nd bet because you already lost 100.

I had to query numbers and plug into spreadsheet to actually figure it out.

I even checked for home dogs and it was even worse

Did stumble across this home dog 2nd game of double header after losing first as dog...looks pretty strong