4/1-4/7 no score 1st inning

if I had seen that play I would have been on it also. U will get it back!
got the mail, will get back when i get a few min.

GL on the season my friend
 
i dont deny that at all, but havent statistics shown that winning in the long run with these bets is very difficult? like first inning runs happen a lot more than we think?
 
Run Scored in First Inning

A popular proposition bet in baseball is whether or not a run will be scored in the first inning. It is pretty obvious that the probability of a run in the first inning would be highly correlated to the projected total. The following table shows the number of games with a run in the first inning, according to the total. The second column, titled RSFI, stands for "Run Scored in the First Inning." This table was based on the 2001 to 2011 seasons. The lower right cell shows an overall probability of at least one run in the first inning of 52.5%.
[TABLE="class: data"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: title, bgcolor: #000000, colspan: 4, align: center"]Run Scored in First Inning Data[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #BBBBBB"]Total[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #BBBBBB"]RSFI[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #BBBBBB"]Total Games[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #BBBBBB"]Ratio[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]17[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]76.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]68[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]44.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]6.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]134[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]335[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]40.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]537[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]1127[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]47.65%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]7.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]1093[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]2313[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]47.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]1544[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]3109[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]49.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]2603[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]5039[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]51.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]3054[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]5859[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]52.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]9.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]2415[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]4403[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]54.85%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]1199[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]2163[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]55.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]10.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]811[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]1358[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]59.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]313[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]516[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]60.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]11.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]128[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]206[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]62.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]72[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]112[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]64.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]12.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]64[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]103[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]62.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]47[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]68[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]69.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]13.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]26[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]41[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]63.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]16[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]62.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]14.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]66.67%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]100.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]Total[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]14102[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]26867[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]52.49%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Here is what that looks like in a graph. The blue line shows the actual percentage of games with a run in the first inning by estimated total runs, from 6.5 to 11.5. The red line is called a "least-squared" regression line, which smooths out the ups and downs by showing the line that best matches the game total to the probability of a first-inning run. The equation for that line is p=0.2554 + 0.0304×t, where p = probability of first-inning run, and t=estimated total runs.
​
I also considered whether it mattered if the game had a big favorite. Given the same total, I found that that money lines on the game didn't affect the probability of a first-inning run.
In baseball, the odds are often different depending on whether a bet is on the under or over the projected total runs. For example, in a game on April 13, 2012, between the Brewers and Braves the total is 7.5. At Bovada, the line on the over is -125, and on the under is +105. Given the pressure on a high total, that would indicate an increased probability of a run in the first inning. What I suggest to adjust for that is to use the following modified formula when there is unequal demand between the over and under.
p = 0.2554 + 0.0304×t + 0.000724×f, where
p = Probability of first-inning run
t = Projected game total
f = Favoritism points on the over
Let me explain "favoritism points on the over." This is how many point the money line on the over has moved in the direction of the over being the favorite side. For example, if the sports book has a 20-cent line on the total, meaning the under and over are 20 points apart, then the following table shows the number "favoritism points on the over."
[TABLE="class: data"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: title, bgcolor: #000000, colspan: 4, align: center"]Favoritism Points
on the Over[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #BBBBBB"]Money Line
on Over[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #BBBBBB"]Favoritism
Points[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]130[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]125[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]120[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]115[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]110[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]105[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-125[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-130[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-135[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-140[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-145[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]-150[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEEAA, align: right"]40[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Let's look at a couple of examples, based on a 20-cent total.
Example 1: Mets vs. Phillies, over 6.5 -115. The table above shows 5 favoritism points. So the probability of a run in the first inning is:
p = 0.2554 + 0.0304×6.5 + 0.000724×5 = 0.45662. That equates to a fair line on a first-inning run of +119.
Example 2: Orioles vs. Yankees, over 7.5 -105. The table above shows -5 favoritism points. So the probability of a run in the first inning is:
p = 0.2554 + 0.0304×7.5 + 0.000724×-5 = 0.47978. That equates to a fair line on a first-inning run of +108.
If you're using a sports book with other than a 20-cent line on the total, then adjust the favoritism points accordingly.
A look at actual lines on this prop shows that most sports books set them well enough to not find an advantage either way. However, I found one book that seemed to favor the "no" on this prop, often making betting on a first-inning run a good value. It is good to try to bet at such places early, to beat the other sharp bettors.
 
O's/Rays R-H-E under 24.5 -115 2 units




waiting on my book to release the line of the 1st inning prop on this game, hoping to see anything under -150
 
BHound,Schrute:shake:

guys this props are a crapshoot, books has the advantage because these of the heavy juice on the under, I'm just picking my spots with these props
 
Some quick thoughts why I like the no score

Price has dominate the O's...Markasis leading off hitting over 300 might give him some troubles. 2nd is Machado, 1st AB , 3rd is Jones hitting .172. 4th is Wieter who is hitting under .300

Hammels did pitched a solid 1st half until he gotten injured. Rays lineup losted some big bats...3rd and 4th hitters are hit less vs Hammels(small sample size)1st and 2nd hitters are facing Hammels for the 1st time, advantage Hammels
 
D-Woww said:
i dont deny that at all, but havent statistics shown that winning in the long run with these bets is very difficult? like first inning runs happen a lot more than we think?
Click to expand...

You can always bet that there will be a run in the first inning, if you think that's the case. You may be correct that they happen "more than we think," but just seeing how these no runs scored lines are juiced would make you think they don't happen that often. Or people would just bet the + money line that a run would be scored and make a mint. It's probably best to just pick spots, as it is in all types of sports betting.
 
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