Don't Do It!!
I use this "double up" method when playing the 47/47/6 odds on Roulette tables. (Red/Black, Odd/Even - Not 50/50 because of the zeros) As long as you have the funds to "fail" 4 out of 5 times, you are in good shape. Your only real limitation in this method for Roulette is
availability of funds...For NFL capping, its availiabilty of games.
Its worked for me in the past. Should work for you, although I would do it in sets of 3 instead of 5 and when you hit a complete 3-set, stash the profit and start over with a fresh 100. The obvious reason being, in independent probabilities, the math works like this (not preaching, just proving):
3-game set, where each outcome is 50/50: 0.5^3 or (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5) = 0.125 or 12.5% chance of hitting all three.
3-game set is a 1:8 chance of picking perfectly.
5-game set, where each outcome is 50/50: 0.5^5 (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5) = 0.031 or 3.1% chance of hitting all 5.
5-game set is a 1:32 chance of picking perfectly.
Thus, adding just two additional games reduces your chances of picking perfectly by 75%. That's a huge reduction in probability! In addition,
there is one MAJOR limitation that would prevent you from getting your 32 attempts:
There are not 32 weeks in football! There are only 18 weeks remaining, if you include play offs (which we will).
If you were to try to pick only one correct game a week, and if you fail on the 3rd pick/week of your first 5-game set, you'd start over on attempt #2 with only 15 weeks remaining. Attempt 3 with only 12 weeks remaining, attempt 4 with only 9, and so on...so that you'd really only get 6 full attempts. No where near the necessary 32 to pick
successfully.
That being said, you would need to pick
at least two perfect games a week, occurring at two separate times (since you could not bet two 1:00 or two 4:00 games with the same money.) Again, let's say you fail on the 3rd pick of your set. Picking 2 games a week would only yield you 12 full attempts.
You would need to pick
all 4 games in a week to even come close, which will only yield you 24 full attempts, assuming you pick a 1pm, 4pm, 8pm and MNF game, and then the Super Bowl to complete the 24th attempt. Still 25% shy of the necessary 32 attempts to successfully pick a 5-game set.
IF you did manage to hit the 5-game set somewhere before the 24th attempt, obviously abandon any further attempts, since statistically your chances of repeating are ~0.01%.
Obviously failing on the 4th game of the 5-game set would significantly reduce your chances even further, failing on the second would increase them slightly.
The same process applied to a 3-game set would yield you the same number of attempts:
1 pick a week: 6 attempts
2 picks a week: 12 attempts
3 picks a week: 18 attempts
4 picks a week: 24 attempts
But the chances of picking a 3-game set sucessfully are 1:8. Therefore, picking 4 games a week would allow you to successfully pick a 3-game set three times in one season! (Pick three games a week and you'd win twice.)
Lastly, since your initial bet is $100, a 5-game set would only yield a profit of $3100, not $3200, where the real-payout odds are 50/50 (like in Roulette) But as we all know, this is NOT the case with Sportsbooks. Juice is a mother fucker!
Assuming all games are at -110 or .909/1.000:
Pick 1, bet $100 = $190.9
Pick 2, bet $190.9 = $364.43
Pick 3, bet $364.43 = $695.7
Pick 4, bet $695.7 = $1328.09
Pick 5, bet $1328.09 = $2535.32
Minus initial bet of $100
NET PROFIT = $2435.32
$764.68 lower than your projection.
Therefore, knowing you only have a max of 24 attempts, betting something that has a 1:32 chance of winning (a 5-game set) is a definite NO-ACTION in my book. I think any capper would agree that those odds SUCK. To add insult to injury, the house edge is 31% even if you do pick perfectly. ($2535.32 real-payout odds over true-payout odds of $3200) No thanks!
A 3-game set increases your chances of winning by 75% over a 5-game set (from 1:32 to 1:8) AND reduces the house edge to only 13% on your payout. Sounds way more appealing to me. I would MUCH rather win $695 two or three times in a season (on 3-game sets) instead of losing $2400 trying to hit one 5-game set.
That, and trying to pick 4 games a week for 18 weeks, one in each time-slot, would be nearly impossible logistically, since sometimes books have a lag with releasing funds, games overlap in the case of OT, weather delay, TV TOs, etc. And I think the stress would eventually kill you. :hang:
:4_12_13:My analysis: 3-game set FTW:4_12_13:
opcorn: I'll be watching this experiment intently and rooting for you! Keep us posted in your signature or something. If you keep this thread updated with your picks, I will subscribe. I am most interested to see how many 5-games sets fail at Pick #4 and #5. 
