hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Lads, it's been a smashing good time...
Monday:
9/5/2016 12:30 PM Denmark Soccer 801 Naestved (DEN-Cup)/Nykobing (DEN-Cup)* Over 2½ -121
9/5/2016 1:00 PM Germany Soccer 301 VfB Stuttgart II (GER-R SW)/Nottingen (GER-R SW)* Over 2½,3 -117
9/5/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 254 Weston Super Mare (ENG-Conf S)/Wealdstone (ENG-Conf S)* Over 2½,3 -105
Naestved/Nykobing: Never a sure thing with these cup games, but all the numbers seem to be there for this one: Nykobing 10-2 O/U its last 12 at home, scoring 2 goals or more on offense in 10 of the last 12 (12 GP, 35 GF, 18 GA, 4.42 goals per game average), while Naestved's posted similar numbers going 10-2 O/U its last 12 on the road, scoring 2 goals or more on offense the last 6 (12 GP, 20 GF, 24 GA, 3.67 goals per game average). Both sides also off to good starts this season in terms of producing high scoring games (Nykobing (6 GP, 12 GF, 7 GA, 5-1 O/U); Naestved (5 GP, 12 GF, 10 GA, 5-2 O/U)) in what's typically a not so high scoring league. Only thing that has me a little worried about this one is the price (seems like it should be a lot higher, like in the -140 range, but we'll find out soon enough).
VfB Stuttgart II/Nottingen: Both Nottingen and Stuttgart are off to good starts this season as far as producing high scoring games (Nottingen 6 GP, 8 GF, 13 GA, 5-1 O/U, BTTS 5-1; Stuttgart II 6 GP, 7 GF, 12 GA, 3-3 O/U, BTTS 5-1), but its Nottingen's results dating back the past few seasons which really bear looking into. Over the course of its last 51 competitive matches, the over's produced at an eye popping 40-11 clip, with home games currently in the midst of a 22-6 stretch. Now, the only caveat to all this would be the fact that Nottingen's made the jump up to Regionalliga this season, where games produce at a slightly lower pace (Over 63.7% in Oberliga Baden-Wurtemburg last year as compared to 53.9% in Regionalliga Sud), while Stuttgart's down from Bundesliga 3, so the step up in competition might prove a little confounding but, at the same time, you play how you play, so still expecting more than enough chances to get this one over.
Weston Super Mare/Wealdstone: For all the 'exotic' leagues I've bet on the past few years (the Texas Premier Soccer League, the Macau 1ª Divisão, the North Korea K-League - that last one's a joke in case anyone from NSA is looking in), I'd have to say this is a first as far as the English National League South goes (not even sure which tier that is) but, to paraphrase Toronto Mike, money's money, so why not? Anyways, both teams producing good numbers so far this season (Wealdstone 8 GP, 16 GF, 11 GA, O/U 7-1, BTTS 5-3; Weston Super Mare 8 GP, 9 GF, 11 GA, O/U 5-3, BTTS 4-4), but it's the home/away splits that really catch your eye. Wealdstone 13-5 O/U its last 18 at home, with BTTS hitting in 14 of those games, and Weston Super Mare 10-4 O/U its last 14 on the road, with BTTS hitting in 13 of its last 16. Of course, its always a tougher call in these lower leagues where you're not as familiar with the teams involved (ie. strength of schedule), but all 5 of the previous matchups the past two seasons went over, and most of the numbers say go, so let's go.
Had a lean towards Wales, but with no Aaron Ramsey, makes it a tougher call against a Moldova side that tends to keep it respectable. Anyways, not sure why I went all out with the writeups this week (probably influenced by all the College Football threads), but the point of the forum is to inform/discuss after all (not just brand everything with something like "TOP" like an idiot without ever giving a shred of reasoning), so... Only sucks if you manage to smooth talk someone into a losing proposition (or two, or three), but that's the chance you take.
Anyways, let's goal!
Monday:
9/5/2016 12:30 PM Denmark Soccer 801 Naestved (DEN-Cup)/Nykobing (DEN-Cup)* Over 2½ -121
9/5/2016 1:00 PM Germany Soccer 301 VfB Stuttgart II (GER-R SW)/Nottingen (GER-R SW)* Over 2½,3 -117
9/5/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 254 Weston Super Mare (ENG-Conf S)/Wealdstone (ENG-Conf S)* Over 2½,3 -105
Naestved/Nykobing: Never a sure thing with these cup games, but all the numbers seem to be there for this one: Nykobing 10-2 O/U its last 12 at home, scoring 2 goals or more on offense in 10 of the last 12 (12 GP, 35 GF, 18 GA, 4.42 goals per game average), while Naestved's posted similar numbers going 10-2 O/U its last 12 on the road, scoring 2 goals or more on offense the last 6 (12 GP, 20 GF, 24 GA, 3.67 goals per game average). Both sides also off to good starts this season in terms of producing high scoring games (Nykobing (6 GP, 12 GF, 7 GA, 5-1 O/U); Naestved (5 GP, 12 GF, 10 GA, 5-2 O/U)) in what's typically a not so high scoring league. Only thing that has me a little worried about this one is the price (seems like it should be a lot higher, like in the -140 range, but we'll find out soon enough).
VfB Stuttgart II/Nottingen: Both Nottingen and Stuttgart are off to good starts this season as far as producing high scoring games (Nottingen 6 GP, 8 GF, 13 GA, 5-1 O/U, BTTS 5-1; Stuttgart II 6 GP, 7 GF, 12 GA, 3-3 O/U, BTTS 5-1), but its Nottingen's results dating back the past few seasons which really bear looking into. Over the course of its last 51 competitive matches, the over's produced at an eye popping 40-11 clip, with home games currently in the midst of a 22-6 stretch. Now, the only caveat to all this would be the fact that Nottingen's made the jump up to Regionalliga this season, where games produce at a slightly lower pace (Over 63.7% in Oberliga Baden-Wurtemburg last year as compared to 53.9% in Regionalliga Sud), while Stuttgart's down from Bundesliga 3, so the step up in competition might prove a little confounding but, at the same time, you play how you play, so still expecting more than enough chances to get this one over.
Weston Super Mare/Wealdstone: For all the 'exotic' leagues I've bet on the past few years (the Texas Premier Soccer League, the Macau 1ª Divisão, the North Korea K-League - that last one's a joke in case anyone from NSA is looking in), I'd have to say this is a first as far as the English National League South goes (not even sure which tier that is) but, to paraphrase Toronto Mike, money's money, so why not? Anyways, both teams producing good numbers so far this season (Wealdstone 8 GP, 16 GF, 11 GA, O/U 7-1, BTTS 5-3; Weston Super Mare 8 GP, 9 GF, 11 GA, O/U 5-3, BTTS 4-4), but it's the home/away splits that really catch your eye. Wealdstone 13-5 O/U its last 18 at home, with BTTS hitting in 14 of those games, and Weston Super Mare 10-4 O/U its last 14 on the road, with BTTS hitting in 13 of its last 16. Of course, its always a tougher call in these lower leagues where you're not as familiar with the teams involved (ie. strength of schedule), but all 5 of the previous matchups the past two seasons went over, and most of the numbers say go, so let's go.
Had a lean towards Wales, but with no Aaron Ramsey, makes it a tougher call against a Moldova side that tends to keep it respectable. Anyways, not sure why I went all out with the writeups this week (probably influenced by all the College Football threads), but the point of the forum is to inform/discuss after all (not just brand everything with something like "TOP" like an idiot without ever giving a shred of reasoning), so... Only sucks if you manage to smooth talk someone into a losing proposition (or two, or three), but that's the chance you take.
Anyways, let's goal!
