316-DVALISHVILI/O'MALLEY 2

[mrpickem]

Nice to finally get a good card with some good matchups. Although most of the top fight are highly juiced.

UFC 316-DVALISHVILI/O'MALLEY 2​

Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey

 

[mrpickem]

316-DVALISHVILI/O'MALLEY 2​

Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey

Early Prelims:

• 2/3.00 MarQuel Mederos wins by 3 round decision +150
• 3/1.94 Choinski/Mederos Over 2½ -155
• 2/1.46 Salkilld/Ashmouz Over 2½ -137
• 1/4.10 Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO +410

• Mederos(10-1) - Choinski(8-0) open the show with two LWs with good records looking to move up. Choinski will look to close distance and grapple while Mederos wants to maintain distance and strike. Since MarQuel has shown very good TDD, I'll side with him, although mainly I like the over in this first bout.
• Ashmouz and Salkilld both enter at 8-1. The Aussie is the younger/hungrier fighter with the more exciting striking style. If Salkilld is able to keep the fight standing he should dominate the striking and find the find in R2 or before, however if Ashmouz withstands the early barrage and forces his control wresting game, we could see him wear down Quillan for a possible decision.
• Joo Sang Yoo(8-0) enters the UFC with high hopes of developing into a solid contender, while Saragih (14-4) is the more seasoned veteran. Although most of his wins were on the regional level Yoo has shown a highly technical all-around game. I would expect Yoo plays it safe at first with a measured pace and patience. Eventually his skill set should prove the difference is a one-side decision or maybe even late finish. Jeka is very aggressive however and will be a threat early on.
• Wang Cong(7-1) faces de Silva(17-10) who missed weight by a staggering 7 lbs. I'm kinda surprised this fight goes forth. de Silva was a solid prospect early in her career but has struggled lately. With the huge weight miss, something has to be up. Cong has excellent striking with what should prove a significant speed advantage. Gimme "The Joker" and the over in a one-sided striking affair.

 

[mrpickem]

316-DVALISHVILI/O'MALLEY 2​

Early Prelims:
2/3.00 MarQuel Mederos wins by 3 round decision +150
3/1.94 Choinski/Mederos Over 2½ -155
2/1.46 Salkilld/Ashmouz Over 2½ -137
1/4.10 Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO +410

...rest of early prelims

• 3/2.68 Saragih/Yoo Over 1½ -112
• 2/3.00 Cong Wang wins by 3 round decision +150

 

[mrpickem]

316-DVALISHVILI/O'MALLEY 2​

Early Prelims:
2/3.00 MarQuel Mederos wins by 3 round decision +150
3/1.94 Choinski/Mederos Over 2½ -155
2/1.46 Salkilld/Ashmouz Over 2½ -137
1/4.10 Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO +410
3/2.68 Saragih/Yoo Over 1½ -112

2/3.00 Cong Wang wins by 3 round decision +150​

ESPN Prelims:​

• 2/3.40 Khaos Williams wins by KO/TKO +170
• 3/4.50 Waldo Cortes-Acosta +150
• 5/1.67 Azamat Murzakanov wins inside distance -300
• 2/2.50 Azamat Murzakanov to Win Fight in Round 1 +125
• 4/2.63 Ribeiro/Murzakanov Under 1½ -152
• 2/2.50 Joshua Van by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +125
• 2/2.14 Silva / Van Under 2½ +107

​

• Khaos Williams (15-4) is 6-3 in the UFC but only 2-2 in L4 over 3 years. Gustafsson (11-2) will be on short notice with his octagon debut. Williams a bit more one-dimensional as a striker while "Bane" may choose to wrestle where he would be at an advantage. Maybe I'd ride with the Swede if not short notice, but in this case I favor the Khaos power.
• Cortes-Acosta (13-1) comes in on a 4-fight winning streak and proved a wily striker especially with his fluid boxing. Spivac (17-5) will look to brawl and stay in close working clinches and takedowns...he can be very heavy on top. Crazy thing is both guys around 6'5" but Spivac has an 8" reach advantage but he will not take advantage. Tossup for me, so I'll take the dog.
• Murzakanov (14-0) at 36 will enter only his 5th fight in the UFC in over 3 years, while Ribeiro(17-7) will be in his 5th bout in 16 months. Ribeiro will be the larger man who will force the action without considering his own defense. Murzakanov is the more skilled fighter in most all area but a truly supreme striker, This one shapes up as a highlight reel KO. Love the under but will also be backing "The Professional" ITD.
• Van (13-2) is the play without a doubt. He pushes pace, landing over 8 sig strikes per minute while preventing takedowns 81% of the time. Only problem is the ridiculous odds, so it'll be an under and Van ITD.

 

[B.A.R.]

GL all night -- much needed card.

 

[mrpickem]

316-DVALISHVILI/O'MALLEY 2​

Early Prelims:
2/3.00 MarQuel Mederos wins by 3 round decision +150
3/1.94 Choinski/Mederos Over 2½ -155
2/1.46 Salkilld/Ashmouz Over 2½ -137
1/4.10 Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO +410
3/2.68 Saragih/Yoo Over 1½ -112
2/3.00 Cong Wang wins by 3 round decision +150

ESPN Prelims:
2/3.40 Khaos Williams wins by KO/TKO +170
3/4.50 Waldo Cortes-Acosta +150
5/1.67 Azamat Murzakanov wins inside distance -300
2/2.50 Azamat Murzakanov to Win Fight in Round 1 +125
4/2.63 Ribeiro/Murzakanov Under 1½ -152

2/2.50 Joshua Van by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +125​

2/2.14 Silva / Van Under 2½ +107​

Main Card:​

• 3/1.68 Kevin Holland -179
• 3/4.65 Mario Bautista +155
• 2.40/3 Joseph Pyfer by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +125
• 1.25/6 Julianna Pena +480

​

• Even though Holland's big chalk vs Luque don't make sense, I'll still ride with the "Trailblazer".
• Mix (20-1) debuts as big chalk vs a solid UFC performer in Bautista (15-2)...in the past this hasn't typically worked out even though everyone seems to believe Patchy is the next coming. Gimme Mario in the disrespectful special.
• seriously, Gastelum (19-9) needs to get out of this game while he's still healthy, he looked pudgy and disinterested at the weight ins. Not a good recipe for him, as he will likely be flat-lined early tonight.

 

[mrpickem]

Card delivered pretty much with a few surprises. Overall, I give it a B-

No fight of the night given, but 4 performance bonuses instead...

Joo Sang Yoo​

Joo Sang Yoo def. Jeka Saragih via knockout (punch) – Round 1, 0:28
Joo Sang Yoo (9-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) had one of the best UFC debuts in a long while when he took out Jeka Saragih (14-5 MMA, 1-3 UFC) with a short left hook to the chin. Yoo barely had any windup and drilled Saragih on the button to send him with a faceplant to the canvas just 28 seconds into their lightweight fight on the prelims.

Kevin Holland​

Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via submission (D’Arce choke) – Round 2, 1:03
Kevin Holland (28-13 MMA, 15-10 UFC) put together one of the best performances of his career when he submitted Brazil’s Vicente Luque (23-11-1 MMA, 16-7 UFC) in the second round to open the main card. Luque had not been submitted in nearly 12 years.

Kayla Harrison​

Kayla Harrison def. Julianna Peña via submission (kimura) – Round 2, 4:55

Merab​

Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O'Malley via submission (neck crank) – Round 3, 4:42
Merab Dvalishvili (20-4 MMA, 13-2 UFC) thoroughly dominated Sean O'Malley (18-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC) to win the bantamweight title in their first meeting in 2024. In the rematch, it looked like a mismatch. Dvalishvili took O’Malley down with ease and eventually tapped him out in the third round to continue to assert himself as the best 135-pounder in UFC history.




I had a decent night as well, did not play the main, although I liked Merab, I typically look for value and I didn't see any in the line.

316-DVALISHVILI/O'MALLEY 2

Early Prelims:
2/3.00 MarQuel Mederos wins by 3 round decision +150
3/1.94 Choinski/Mederos Over 2½ -155
2/1.46 Salkilld/Ashmouz Over 2½ -137
1/4.10 Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO +410
3/2.68 Saragih/Yoo Over 1½ -112
2/3.00 Cong Wang wins by 3 round decision +150
ESPN Prelims:
2/3.40 Khaos Williams wins by KO/TKO +170
3/4.50 Waldo Cortes-Acosta +150
5/1.67 Azamat Murzakanov wins inside distance -300
2/2.50 Azamat Murzakanov to Win Fight in Round 1 +125
4/2.63 Ribeiro/Murzakanov Under 1½ -152
2/2.50 Joshua Van by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +125
2/2.14 Silva / Van Under 2½ +107
Main Card:
3/1.68 Kevin Holland -179
3/4.65 Mario Bautista +155
2.40/3 Joseph Pyfer by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +125
1.25/6 Julianna Pena +480
[10-7 +13.38u]