313

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Solid card tonight. Of course anytime you get "Poatan" on the show, it's must see TV.

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After last week, I'm in the green on the year, barely. 🏄
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UFC 313: PEREIRA VS ANKALAEV​

@T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV

Early Prelim:​

  • 2/6.50 Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO +325
  • 3/1.88 Diaz/Santos Under 2½ -160
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  • Middleweights kickoff the show in the only early prelim tonight. This should be Diaz's fight to lose, as he brings an excellent striking arsenal. So long as he controls distance and doesn't get complacent, he should find an early KO in round 1 or 2. There is a possibility if Diaz gets inside and forces pace with his size, grappling and power punching inside. If that happens, it could get dicey.
  • Note: The Gutierrez/Castaneda bout was cancelled due to illness.
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UFC 313: PEREIRA VS ANKALAEV​


Early Prelim:
❌2/6.50 Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO +325
❌3/1.88 Diaz/Santos Under 2½ -160

ESPN Prelims:​

  • 2/3.64 Francis Marshall/Mairon Santos Under 2½ +177
  • 3/3.60 Brunno Ferreira +120
  • 3/3.99 Rei Tsuruya +133
  • 2/3.00 Rei Tsuruya/Joshua Van Under 2½ +150
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  • Marshall (8-2) vs Santos (14-1) will be yet another striker vs grappler type fight. Santos is the strike with heavy strikes and some serious G-n-P if he gets on top while the "Fire" Marshall will be looking for another sub, either way it goes(I do favor Santos), I feel even better about the under.
  • Ferreira and Petrosyan are both strikers looking to throw. While the "Hulk" will look to brawl, get inside and punish Armen. "Superman" will counter with technical boxing, trying to control distance and slick counter punching. Close fight, but I'll bach the Hulk at plus money.
  • Van(12-2) has done nothing but win in the UFC going 5-1 since a Jun 2023 debut while winning 10 of last 11 overall. That said, dude never seems to get the respect he has earned. Once again tonight he draws top 10-0 prospect Rei Tsuruy. Van will push the pace and throw punches in bunches, I would be ready to back Rei if not such a short notice. Still, if he gets this fight to the ground early, he may find early sub. Very tough call in feature Prelim, but WTF, gimme the dog.
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Along for the ride tonight. Need some destruction after spending a couple hours watching that UNC/Duke game.
 

UFC 313: PEREIRA VS ANKALAEV​


Early Prelim:
❌2/6.50 Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO +325
❌3/1.88 Diaz/Santos Under 2½ -160

ESPN Prelims:
❌2/3.64 Francis Marshall/Mairon Santos Under 2½ +177
✅3/3.60 Brunno Ferreira +120
❌3/3.99 Rei Tsuruya +133
❌2/3.00 Rei Tsuruya/Joshua Van Under 2½ +150
[1-4 -8.4u]

Main Card:​

  • 4/3.20 Mauricio Ruffy wins inside distance -125
  • 3/2.22 Iasmin Lucindo -135
  • 4.05/3 Ignacio Bahamondes -135
  • 2/4.30 Bahamondes wins inside distance +215
  • 1/4.75 Bahamondes wins in round 1 +475
  • 2/4.10 Bahamondes/Turner Fight won’t start round 2 +205
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Ouch, tough start but there's still time to get right. 🧐
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UFC 313: PEREIRA VS ANKALAEV

Early Prelim:
❌2/6.50 Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO +325
❌3/1.88 Diaz/Santos Under 2½ -160

ESPN Prelims:
❌2/3.64 Francis Marshall/Mairon Santos Under 2½ +177
✅3/3.60 Brunno Ferreira +120
❌3/3.99 Rei Tsuruya +133
❌2/3.00 Rei Tsuruya/Joshua Van Under 2½ +150

Main Card:
✅4/3.20 Mauricio Ruffy wins inside distance -125
❌3/2.22 Iasmin Lucindo -135
[2-5 -8.2u]

4.05/3 Ignacio Bahamondes -135​
2/4.30 Bahamondes wins inside distance +215​
1/4.75 Bahamondes wins in round 1 +475​
2/4.10 Bahamondes/Turner Fight won’t start round 2 +205​

  • 3/1.97 Rafael Fiziev -152
  • 3/2.13 Rafael Fiziev/Justin Gaethje Over 2½ -141
  • 4/3.57 Alex Pereira -112
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  • Gaethje(25-5) has 13 bonuses in 13 fights, wow! "The Highlight" definitely has the right nickname, as every fight he's in turn out to be classic. I don't see how him and Fiziev(12-3) don't deliver again tonight. Justin with heavy hands, devastating leg kicks and relentless pressure vs "Ataman" with his top level striking, speed and grit. If Rafael can somehow avoid too much damage from the calf kicks, his technically superior striking should be enough, although the real winner will be us fans enjoying a FOTN candidate.
  • Pereira(12-2) hasn't been around long, but what he has done is truly legendary. So many people seem to think he may be over-matched tonight, but I can't see it. Yes, Ankalaev(20-1-1) is a lifer from Dagestan that has all the accolades from amateur sambo right on up to top UFC striker. But, he has never faced the black magic that is "Poatan". His unreal power is a spectacle to behold...the way he flips his arms and legs with minimal movement from the torse is uncanny, not to mention the power he delivers. Eventually he will meet his match and go down, but tonight is not that night!
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UFC 313: PEREIRA VS ANKALAEV

Early Prelim:
❌2/6.50 Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO +325
❌3/1.88 Diaz/Santos Under 2½ -160

ESPN Prelims:
❌2/3.64 Francis Marshall/Mairon Santos Under 2½ +177
✅3/3.60 Brunno Ferreira +120
❌3/3.99 Rei Tsuruya +133
❌2/3.00 Rei Tsuruya/Joshua Van Under 2½ +150

Main Card:
✅4/3.20 Mauricio Ruffy wins inside distance -125
❌3/2.22 Iasmin Lucindo -135
[2-5 -8.2u]

4.05/3 Ignacio Bahamondes -135​
2/4.30 Bahamondes wins inside distance +215​
1/4.75 Bahamondes wins in round 1 +475​
2/4.10 Bahamondes/Turner Fight won’t start round 2 +205​

  • 3/1.97 Rafael Fiziev -152
  • 3/2.13 Rafael Fiziev/Justin Gaethje Over 2½ -141
  • 4/3.57 Alex Pereira -112
  • Gaethje(25-5) has 13 bonuses in 13 fights, wow! "The Highlight" definitely has the right nickname, as every fight he's in turn out to be classic. I don't see how him and Fiziev(12-3) don't deliver again tonight. Justin with heavy hands, devastating leg kicks and relentless pressure vs "Ataman" with his top level striking, speed and grit. If Rafael can somehow avoid too much damage from the calf kicks, his technically superior striking should be enough, although the real winner will be us fans enjoying a FOTN candidate.
  • Pereira(12-2) hasn't been around long, but what he has done is truly legendary. So many people seem to think he may be over-matched tonight, but I can't see it. Yes, Ankalaev(20-1-1) is a lifer from Dagestan that has all the accolades from amateur sambo right on up to top UFC striker. But, he has never faced the black magic that is "Poatan". His unreal power is a spectacle to behold...the way he flips his arms and legs with minimal movement from the torse is uncanny, not to mention the power he delivers. Eventually he will meet his match and go down, but tonight is not that night!
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Way to clean up on the Ignacio fight.
 
My results...

UFC 313: PEREIRAVS ANKALAEV​

Early Prelim:
❌2/6.50 Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO +325
❌3/1.88 Diaz/Santos Under 2½ -160
ESPN Prelims:
❌2/3.64 Francis Marshall/Mairon Santos Under 2½ +177
✅3/3.60 Brunno Ferreira +120
❌3/3.99 Rei Tsuruya +133
❌2/3.00 Rei Tsuruya/Joshua Van Under 2½ +150
Main Card:
✅4/3.20 Mauricio Ruffy wins inside distance -125
❌3/2.22 Iasmin Lucindo -135
✅4.05/3 Ignacio Bahamondes -135
✅2/4.30 Bahamondes wins inside distance +215
✅1/4.75 Bahamondes wins in round 1 +475
✅2/4.10 Bahamondes/Turner Fight won’t start round 2 +205
❌3/1.97 Rafael Fiziev -152
✅3/2.13 Rafael Fiziev/Justin Gaethje Over 2½ -141
❌4/3.57 Alex Pereira -112
[7-8 +3.08u]
My night was carried by the Bahamondes fight, as I had 4 plays on that bout(4-0 +16.15u). Otherwise, the main was a bit disappointing as Alex seemed a bit tentative, and did not seem willing to unleash his full arsenal. That said Ankalaev obviously had a lot to do with it with a solid game plan, excellent striking and true toughness. Congratsa to him!

Bonuses:

Performance: Mauricio Ruffy for a highlight-reel finish of Bobby Green in the featured lighweight encounter. The Fight Nerds standout put his opponent to sleep at 2:07 into the opening round, landing a spinning wheel kick that will likely wind up on many “Knockout of the Year” lists when all is said and done. It was just the 16th knockout by spinning kick in UFC history.
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Performance: Ignacio Bahamondes also garnered a $50,000 for making short work of JalinTurner in another featured lightweight pairing. Turner took top position early in the bout, but eventually he found himself trapped in a triangle choke. Turner tapped out 2:29 into Round 1, giving Bahamondes his third consecutive first-round finish.
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Fight of the Night: Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev won for the second time in their two lightweight pairings. Just like their first meeting, the fight was competitive and violent, but ultimately, Gaethje got the nod on the scorecards once again — but both combatants were awarded with $50,000 for their efforts. Amazing as it sounds, that was Justin's 14th bonus in 14 fights! He has one of the most appropriate UFC nicknames, "The Highlight".
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Expected salaries(aprox):
  • Alex Pereira: $3-3.5M, with a guaranteed $1 million fight purse
  • Magomed Ankalaev: $750K guaranteed, potentially reaching $1.8M if the event exceeds 850,000 buys
  • Justin Gaethje: $750K without PPV cut, potentially reaching low seven figures with PPV share + 50k bonus
  • Rafael Fiziev: $350-450K+ 50k bonus
  • Jalin Turner: $150K
  • Ignacio Bahamondes: $75K + 50k bonus= $125k
  • Amanda Lemos: $40K
  • Iasmin Lucindo: $150K
  • Bobby Green: $350K
  • Mauricio Ruffy: $30K + 50k bonus= $80k
 
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