301

[mrpickem]

Pretty lame card for a PPV, but still there are some great athletes at work.

UFC 301 - PANTOJA VS ERCEG​

I missed the first few, but let's go from here, starting with the last fight of the early prelims:

• Ruffy (9-1) - Mullarkey (17-7) ...Ruffy gets debut UFC assignment at home vs a tough, durable Aussie. I could see Ruffy getting off early and looking good for a round or 2 but most likely the tide will turn and Jamie will take charge with a possible late finish.

Early Prelim Feature Bout:​

• 1.47/3 Jamie Mullarkey +204
• 2/1.52 Mullarkey/Ruffy O1½ -132

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 301​

Early Prelims​

1.47/3 Jamie Mullarkey +204​

2/1.52 Mullarkey/Ruffy O1½ -132​

ESPN Prelims​

• 2/1.05 Drakkar Klose -190
• 2/4.30 Klose wins inside distance +215
• 1.86/4 Elves Brener +215
• 1/5.45 Brener wins by submission +545
• 1.49/5 Karolina Kowalkiewicz +335
• 4/2.33 Joanderson Brito -172

• Silva-Klose should be a firefight from go. Both guys like to come forward and throw bombs. While Silva probably has an edge in power, I fully expect Klose to prove the more skilled striker. Most likely start with low kicks until he finds his rhythm. I think he gets the finish but still after 1½ rounds.
• Brener (16-3) - Orolbai (12-1) ... This fight seems much closer than the odds indicate. While Orolbai is the better striker, it shouldn't be a huge advantage where Brener is a master at BJJ and will be very dangerous should he can get this to the ground. He has 11 sub wins. Maybe the bookies know something, but I have to go with the dog.
• Kowalkiewicz (16-7) - Lucindo (15-5) ...at these odds I can't help but back the Polish lady with tons more experience who's riding a 4 fight win streak...even if she is over 16 years the senior to Lucindo.
• Shore (17-1) - Brito (16-3) ... By contrast, these two 145ers were born only 4 days apart. Brito however should prove the stronger fighter with a thundering right. He's also very adept at chokes once the fight hits the mat. Shore is no easy out, but he is a bantamweight who has only had one fight since moving up to featherweight. Hard to see him matching Brito's power.

 

[mrpickem]

DAMN, that Ruffy is a player. Very impressive, first time I've seen him, but I won't soon forget. Give Jamie credit after taking lots of damage he was still landing and moving forward before the last sequence, but he was dominated. Here's the finish which probably was late coming.

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 301​

Early Prelims:​

1.47/3 Jamie Mullarkey +204
2/1.52 Mullarkey/Ruffy O1½ -132

ESPN Prelims:​

2/1.05 Drakkar Klose -190
2/4.30 Klose wins inside distance +215
1.86/4 Elves Brener +215
1/5.45 Brener wins by submission +545
1.49/5 Karolina Kowalkiewicz +335

[1-6 -8.77u]

4/2.33 Joanderson Brito -172

Main Card:​

• 3/2.86 Borralho wins inside distance -105
• 1/2.75 Borralho wins in round 1 +275
• 2/3.40 Borralho/Craig u1½ +170
• 5/1.09 Michel Pereira -460
• 5/1.82 Pereira points handicap -3½ -275
• 1/3.97 ANTHONY SMITH +397
• 2/3.62 SMITH / PETRINO u1½ +181

• Craig (17-7) / Borralho (15-1) ... Craig's always got a chance for the sub, but I believe Caio will be so busy attacking in so many different ways, it will simply overwhelm "BearJew".
• Pereira (30-11) - Potieria (20-5) .. Ihor comes in on short notice vs a guy who's really come into his own. The "Demolidor" has now won 7 straight and is 8-2 in the UFC with one of his losses on a DQ(Illegal Knee). The odds are crazy but somewhat justifies considering the focus Michel has shown for over 4 years. Dude's on his way to a titles show and who knows...maybe a future champion.
• Smith / Petrino (11-0) ... I'm sure Petrino will likely dominate and get an early finish but at these odds I'll throw a hook out there on the old cagey vet.

 

[skanless13]

Good chance Smith is absolutely destroyed here, but you’re right. With how durable he is, you almost have to play him at this price

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 301​

Early Prelims​

1.47/3 Jamie Mullarkey +204
2/1.52 Mullarkey/Ruffy O1½ -132

ESPN Prelims​

2/1.05 Drakkar Klose -190
2/4.30 Klose wins inside distance +215
1.86/4 Elves Brener +215
1/5.45 Brener wins by submission +545
1.49/5 Karolina Kowalkiewicz +335
4/2.33 Joanderson Brito -172

Main Card:​

3/2.86 Borralho wins inside distance -105
1/2.75 Borralho wins in round 1 +275
2/3.40 Borralho/Craig u1½ +170
5/1.09 Michel Pereira -460
5/1.82 Pereira points handicap -3½ -275

[6-7 +1.73u]

1/3.97 ANTHONY SMITH +397
2/3.62 SMITH / PETRINO u1½ +181

• 4/2.70 JONATHAN MARTINEZ -148

• Martinez (19-4) - Aldo (31-8) ... Aldo is a legend so it's great he gets a last show in his home country. This will be a tough matchup for the champ. Martinez is very fast and a polished striker that has quite a bit of experience (10-3 in UFC) and has won his last 6. I love Jose and have made bank plenty times on him over the years, but we get an excellent price because of just who Also is.

 

[DBURGH]

Smith!

 

[KJ]

Nicely done on Lionheart, you had that match pegged well

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 301
Early Prelims
1.47/3 Jamie Mullarkey +204
2/1.52 Mullarkey/Ruffy O1½ -132

ESPN Prelims
2/1.05 Drakkar Klose -190
2/4.30 Klose wins inside distance +215
1.86/4 Elves Brener +215
1/5.45 Brener wins by submission +545
1.49/5 Karolina Kowalkiewicz +335
4/2.33 Joanderson Brito -172

Main Card:
3/2.86 Borralho wins inside distance -105
1/2.75 Borralho wins in round 1 +275
2/3.40 Borralho/Craig u1½ +170
5/1.09 Michel Pereira -460
5/1.82 Pereira points handicap -3½ -275
1/3.97 ANTHONY SMITH +397
2/3.62 SMITH / PETRINO u1½ +181

[8-7 +9.32u]

4/2.70 JONATHAN MARTINEZ -148

• 1.58/3 Pantoja wins inside distance +190
• 3/1.74 Alexandre Pantoja -172

• Erceg's first five-rounder to date, it'll be interesting to see how he paces himself throughout. Despite his smooth striking, a huge question remains about his TDD. "Astroboy" has yet to face a wrestler of note but will be dealing from an elite wrestler tonight. I really want to take Ercap but just don't see it, probably sub late.

 

[mrpickem]

Card actually over-delivered IMHO. Several fighters could have been bonus'd but only 4 got the 50k

• Performance of the Night: Michel Pereira It’s never a boring fight when Michel Pereira steps in the Octagon and that was no different tonight. Pereira wasted no time getting things started, hurting Potieira with a jab that sent him to the canvas. Things got even crazier from there as Pereira back flipped, landing on his opponent, and securing a guillotine that would force Potieira to tap. The win extends Pereira’s win streak to eight.
• Performance of the Night: Caio Borralho continues to make a name for himself in the middleweight division, and he did so against Scotland’s Paul Craig in Rio on Saturday night. It was all Borralho throughout the first round and as things moved into the second, The Fighting Nerds product stung Craig, and continued to put the pressure on, throwing a clean left hand that sent “Bearjew” down and out.
• Performance of the Night: Mauricio Ruffy put himself on the map in his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey. The Brazilian was dominant from the start, connecting on all cylinders as he carefully picked his shots and continued to put it on Mullarkey, forcing the ref to stop the fight at 4:42 of the first round. In his Octagon interview, he had a message to the champion Islam Makhachev, telling him to enjoy his days because ‘a new king is coming’.
• Performance of the Night: Alessandro Costa got the night started off strong for the Brazilians, earning a second round stoppage against Peru’s Kevin Borjas. Things went well for Costa in the first round, landing a handful for damaging jabs, something he carried into the second frame. He switched gears and starting throw a series of leg kicks that visibly hurt Borjas. It was all gas, no brakes as “Nono” starting landing a storm of jabs allowing him to leave the Octagon victorious.

I managed to finish the night a winner after a slow start.


2024 has been good to me so far...