3 Keys for Ohio State to Beat Alabama
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Monday, January 11, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
1. Control The Line Of Scrimmage
When Ohio State defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship and then defeated Clemson in the Semifinals, one thing that stood out was Ohio State’s ability to control the line of scrimmage.
Consider running back Trey Sermon’s numbers in both games. Against Northwestern, Sermon ran for 331 yards on 29 carries. Against Clemson, he ran for 193 yards on 31 carries.
In both games, Sermon benefitted from huge holes generated by his blockers. Of course, Sermon also deserves individual credit for his strong running.
But that’s the other thing: Sermon is a strong and physical runner who is difficult to bring down. When he has open running lanes, he becomes even harder to bring down because he can collect more momentum as he explodes through the hole unimpeded.
Now, in the game against Northwestern, Ohio State benefitted from a tremendous talent gap in the trenches because the Buckeyes recruit extremely well.
Just among Big Ten teams, the Buckeyes annually rank at least 10 spots higher than Northwestern in recruiting — as measured by 247Sports.
As a consequence of this disparity, the Wildcats started a defensive tackle who was a three-star recruit and another who was a two-star recruit.
To give a better picture, the two-star recruit is Joe Spivak and he was considering offers from the likes of Kent State and Central Michigan. He did not receive an offer from a single other Power Five school.
As for Clemson, of course the talent was there. But this was not remotely the Clemson defensive line that contributed to the Tigers’ National Championship victory in the 2018-2019 season.
That defensive line featured the likes of Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins, both of whom were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft in April.
This latest defensive line for Clemson featured two true freshmen. So Clemson’s defensive line talent was raw and undeveloped.
2. Have Justin Fields Be His Good Self
Ohio State’s ATS results have largely hinged on whether we get the good Justin Fields or the bad Justin Fields.
To be clear, the bad Justin Fields is still better than a lot of quarterbacks. But he isn’t the Justin Fields who some see as a championship-caliber, future first-round NFL draft pick.
Fields has thrown multiple interceptions in two games. In those two games, Ohio State is 0-2 ATS. Likewise, Fields has failed to reach 150 in his passer rating in two games. In those two games, the Buckeyes are 0-2 ATS.
Conversely, Ohio State is 5-1 ATS when Fields throws one or zero interceptions and when his passer rating exceeds 150. The one exception was against Rutgers where Ohio State had a monumental spread to cover, but took the second half off on both sides of the ball.
We have seen both versions of Fields throughout the season and even in this latest game against Clemson. But the Buckeyes were able to beat Clemson because bad Fields did not surface often enough.
Bad Fields is the version of Fields who locks onto his receivers and who refuses to check down, but instead tries to force the big play.
Good Fields is the version of Fields who goes through his progressions before accurately hitting his target.
To be sure, whether we get bad Fields or good Fields is not completely up to Fields.
Ohio State will still need to control the line of scrimmage and its wide receivers will need to help Fields out by getting open.
When Fields delivered those beautiful bombs to the end zone against the Tigers, he benefitted from having all day to throw. He was also throwing to open receivers who had gotten behind the Tiger secondary.
Conversely, when Fields threw that interception on the first drive of the second half, Clemson was able to cover Fields’ potential targets and to disrupt Fields’ ability to follow through on his throwing motion.
3. Value Every Possession
Alabama’s offense is simply other-worldly. It’s scoring 49.7 points per game and accruing 7.7 yards per play.
Opposing defenses hoped that they would have an easier time against Alabama after Jaylen Waddle went down to injury.
Likewise, they hoped that they could benefit by focusing on containing Heisman candidate DeVonta Smith.
But the Crimson Tide offense simply has too many other weapons which make it prolific.
So in order to beat Alabama, the Buckeyes have to make every possession count.
Do not settle for field goals. Do not punt on 4th-and-1. Do not commit turnovers. Do not commit drive-killing penalties.
By making this aggressiveness pay off, Ohio State creates a margin of error for its defense that might just be large enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Monday, January 11, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
1. Control The Line Of Scrimmage
When Ohio State defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship and then defeated Clemson in the Semifinals, one thing that stood out was Ohio State’s ability to control the line of scrimmage.
Consider running back Trey Sermon’s numbers in both games. Against Northwestern, Sermon ran for 331 yards on 29 carries. Against Clemson, he ran for 193 yards on 31 carries.
In both games, Sermon benefitted from huge holes generated by his blockers. Of course, Sermon also deserves individual credit for his strong running.
But that’s the other thing: Sermon is a strong and physical runner who is difficult to bring down. When he has open running lanes, he becomes even harder to bring down because he can collect more momentum as he explodes through the hole unimpeded.
Now, in the game against Northwestern, Ohio State benefitted from a tremendous talent gap in the trenches because the Buckeyes recruit extremely well.
Just among Big Ten teams, the Buckeyes annually rank at least 10 spots higher than Northwestern in recruiting — as measured by 247Sports.
As a consequence of this disparity, the Wildcats started a defensive tackle who was a three-star recruit and another who was a two-star recruit.
To give a better picture, the two-star recruit is Joe Spivak and he was considering offers from the likes of Kent State and Central Michigan. He did not receive an offer from a single other Power Five school.
As for Clemson, of course the talent was there. But this was not remotely the Clemson defensive line that contributed to the Tigers’ National Championship victory in the 2018-2019 season.
That defensive line featured the likes of Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins, both of whom were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft in April.
This latest defensive line for Clemson featured two true freshmen. So Clemson’s defensive line talent was raw and undeveloped.
2. Have Justin Fields Be His Good Self
Ohio State’s ATS results have largely hinged on whether we get the good Justin Fields or the bad Justin Fields.
To be clear, the bad Justin Fields is still better than a lot of quarterbacks. But he isn’t the Justin Fields who some see as a championship-caliber, future first-round NFL draft pick.
Fields has thrown multiple interceptions in two games. In those two games, Ohio State is 0-2 ATS. Likewise, Fields has failed to reach 150 in his passer rating in two games. In those two games, the Buckeyes are 0-2 ATS.
Conversely, Ohio State is 5-1 ATS when Fields throws one or zero interceptions and when his passer rating exceeds 150. The one exception was against Rutgers where Ohio State had a monumental spread to cover, but took the second half off on both sides of the ball.
We have seen both versions of Fields throughout the season and even in this latest game against Clemson. But the Buckeyes were able to beat Clemson because bad Fields did not surface often enough.
Bad Fields is the version of Fields who locks onto his receivers and who refuses to check down, but instead tries to force the big play.
Good Fields is the version of Fields who goes through his progressions before accurately hitting his target.
To be sure, whether we get bad Fields or good Fields is not completely up to Fields.
Ohio State will still need to control the line of scrimmage and its wide receivers will need to help Fields out by getting open.
When Fields delivered those beautiful bombs to the end zone against the Tigers, he benefitted from having all day to throw. He was also throwing to open receivers who had gotten behind the Tiger secondary.
Conversely, when Fields threw that interception on the first drive of the second half, Clemson was able to cover Fields’ potential targets and to disrupt Fields’ ability to follow through on his throwing motion.
3. Value Every Possession
Alabama’s offense is simply other-worldly. It’s scoring 49.7 points per game and accruing 7.7 yards per play.
Opposing defenses hoped that they would have an easier time against Alabama after Jaylen Waddle went down to injury.
Likewise, they hoped that they could benefit by focusing on containing Heisman candidate DeVonta Smith.
But the Crimson Tide offense simply has too many other weapons which make it prolific.
So in order to beat Alabama, the Buckeyes have to make every possession count.
Do not settle for field goals. Do not punt on 4th-and-1. Do not commit turnovers. Do not commit drive-killing penalties.
By making this aggressiveness pay off, Ohio State creates a margin of error for its defense that might just be large enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.
