3 bets that make sense

[tuck321]

Minn plus 11.5
This will be Houston's 17th game without 2 days off. In the last game they played double overtime.They have not covered as a double didget favorite this year. After this game the have 1 day off and then go on a revenge game to the Spurs who beat them at Houston on the 14th. 2 days after that they play at Utah another divisional rival and they have beaten Minn 7 in a row and usually by large numbers at home. Can they do it again? Maybe. But I doubt it. First half looks good too
Indiana whatever the number. Indiana fits this theme perfectly. Dallas has beaten them 6 of the last 7 times they have played. I am not saying Portland did not play well but when Daniels played 22 minutes and Foster played 28 not much need be said. Those players played short minutes and without much effort because they were waiting for the team they could Hurt and deeply wanted to. Dallas They want to knock them out of the playoffs. Dallas is doing the best they can but no one on the team thinks they can make it out of the first round if they get that far. Everything is a struggle for them now and I do not see tomorrow as an exception.
OKC
They actually played a good game against the Bulls but right now the Bulls are simply Fire. Utah has not been fire on the road for a long time and they have beaten OKC 6 out of the last 7. Utah has had a hard year. Too many injuries. Just too many problems. A bad road team should not be a road favorite to a team of young talented players that hate their guts.

 

[tuck321]

I guess the moral of these picks is when in doubt trust hate and fatigue.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Minnesota is off 2 tough road games (trailed SAS by 6 pts with 5 mins to go, led NOR with 30 seconds to go and missed a game winning shot) against teams from the strongest division in the NBA (4 teams with records .594 or better), and now get's their 3rd straight team from that same division on the road within 4 days. Thats a tough assignment for any team to go 3-0 ATS in, let alone a .294 one.

Minnesota has gone 4-4 ATS on the road since their season high 11-0 ATS road run, which means they've reverted to being a 50% proposition away from home. Entering this game off 2 ATS road wins, a 50% proposition suggests what kind of effort here?

Minnesota hasn't covered 3 straight road games this season when they were played within a space of 4 days.

Minnesota is 3-7 ATS off their last 10 ATS wins.

Minnesota is 1-4 ATS this season playing a game as a Dog after covering their previous 2 games as a Dog. They have not covered 4 straight as a Dog this season (out of 25 instances of being the Dog for 4 straight games).

Minnesota has lost only 2 of it's last 20 road games by 9+ points - 1 was at Houston where they lost by 17 pts (playing a 3rd in 5, off 2 days rest), when they got 36 pts from Jefferson who is obviously no longer there (and without said effort could easily have lost by 30 pts).

Kevin Love has provided critical scoring for Minnesota's last 2 road games (17 pts, =top scorer & 23 pts, top scorer). This guy's season game scores squarely point to the fact to expect a letdown effort in this game. This season off a 20+ pt effort he has scored 2 pts (in 26 mins), 2 pts (in 28 mins) & 17 pts (in 31 mins).

Minny has a home game against Oklahoma up next, while you point to a Houston look ahead, I'll do the same w/Minny. They've played their hearts out their last 2 games for no reward (and much heartbreak esp. with the last effort), and now the question can be asked why will they drain their energy reserves for no reward a 3rd time straight (they seriously entertain thoughts of winning here?) and leave themselves in danger of having nothing left for very winnable game up next?

....

Houston has beaten Minny by 17 pts, 11 pts & 31 pts in meetings in Houston since KG left for Boston. The lowest margin of the 3 saw Yao Ming absent for Houston.

The Favourite is 8-0-1 ATS the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams (HOU 7-0 ATS the last 7 meetings).

Houston has alternated ATS wins & losses for 7 games, and as you noted enters this game off an ATS loss.

While Houston hasn't had 2 days off in sometime, Yao Ming will be playing only his 2nd game in 6 days. When HOU beat MIN earlier this season by 17 pts, Yao went 12-18 in scoring 30 pts.


It stands to reason I don't agree with your Minny play, but BOL. If Minny covers, imo it'll be deep in the 4th through a Maxwell Smart series of elaborate backdoors.

 

[SF_capper]

GL tuck. Gonna be on Indiana with you no doubt. OKC I like the 1st H route a bit more because it is utah, and Minnesota, I probably go 1st H here if I play it. looks good BOL

 

[Killa]

That Minny play is a thing of beauty IMO. I don't rule out a SU win there. Best play on the board IMO.

Maybe I'm missing something, but why does OKC "hate Utah's guts?"

 

[tuck321]

Just prejudice. The last game where they were beaten by 20 and never won a quarter has a way of doing that plus the 6 losses in last 7. :shake:
BC, you have stated the truth but possibly missed the point. In the cycle you mentioned they covered against Utah, Denver and NO. Those were playoff teams they dislike and conssider major rivals. The next two games after Minn are Spurs and Utah. Cycles are a convenience for a team not a necessity. It is important to show up against Spurs and Utah. Betting on teams to cover spreads in sweep situations has been a disaster as we saw again last night in the Laker game and Cleveland. Regarding the OKC look ahead, it is a negative but maybe not so much. Honestly doubt that Minn feels its 10-25 home turf is that important. At least in comparison with with standing up to a team that has raped them for years. This is Minn's playoffs. Games with non playoff teams are just trival breaks in the action.
Will have a play in the Denver game up later.

 

[SF_capper]

very strong points on these games and by no coincidence, I probably will be on all.
For the OKC game however, I think the last game they lost by a lot was Utah showing their hatred toward OKC for beating them by 20+. If OKC felt hatred toward each team that beat them shitless this season, they'd be a pretty mad team. Utah unexplainably, at the time, losing by 20 to OKC was cause for hatred

 

[tuck321]

Agree that one bad loss does not set up a war. But the combination of it and a 1-6 record against them makes at least Strong Dislike probable. Mostly OKC just wants to earn respect and i am not sure utah will recover fully from the Miami game for some time. Syracuse was used as an example after that game but Syracuse was much younger than utah and Syracuse Won the marathon.

 

[tuck321]

Put OKC on hold. BC has some interesting points in the main thread and I want to see if I can find a possibly safer bet in that game.

 

[tuck321]

I have reduced the OKC bet by half. Fairly easy too do with value since the spread has dropped a point. BC has some good points. Utah is playing with 2 days rest and has 3 days off after this game. They are in a tight race in their division and are currently healthy. They have lost 13 of their last 20 road games but all but 3 of those losses were to strong playoff contenders. OKC is good but not in terms of strong playoff contenders.They should be considering this a must win game. Will they win? I'm not sure. When the Spurs lost to OKC they were in a terrible spot with massive fatique and a home game the next day. Nothing like that here. Millsap and Boozer did not play last time at OKC but they do tonight. I like trends. OKC is 11-1 last 12 getting 6 or less ats. They are 6-0 ats at home on Friday. I think they are worth a bet today but maybe it should be smaller than I first thought. They may be the much dreaded public dog. Have a small over bet here by the way. Tough to bet overs at OkC but the situation and the referees seem to point there.

 

[CappingCrunch]

i like OKC .. on them as well... OKC are ATS machines @ home. Utah with rest...regardless is still playing on the road, they get a bit flaky BOL Today bro

 

[tuck321]

Thanks. I aam betting unspecified level on Memphis first half plus 6.5. Want to know if Marcel is playing. Logic being NO is
a. Falling apart and
B. Has covered in the first half in 2 0f their last 10 home games. If they land hard first quarter they give it back in the second. Not crazy about Memphis with a home game against Boston the next day so trying to limit involvement. See OKC at NO in the same situation. At half time they were down 4 covering easily and then in the fourth they bagged it resting for thee home game the next day.

 

[tuck321]

I am considering playing the Spurs. Really comes down to Lineups. Obviously Pops rested Duncan for a reason. Boston had beaten Spurs 3 in a row before the last win. Do not see Pops as forgiving and Drew Gooden was only played 6 minutes. Maybe Gooden does not register to many here but he is actually almost Manu level. Will wait on line ups.

 

[SF_capper]

Thanks. I aam betting unspecified level on Memphis first half plus 6.5. Want to know if Marcel is playing. Logic being NO is
a. Falling apart and
B. Has covered in the first half in 2 0f their last 10 home games. If they land hard first quarter they give it back in the second. Not crazy about Memphis with a home game against Boston the next day so trying to limit involvement. See OKC at NO in the same situation. At half time they were down 4 covering easily and then in the fourth they bagged it resting for thee home game the next day.

just played the 2nd Q, but the 1st H is probably just as golden

 

[tuck321]

Probably. Like giving some room with the first half but either is percentage.. Second quarter makes sense for sure. Now this is what happened last time Minn came to Houston.
27-20 Minn 23-30 tie third quarter 21-28 Houston It makes a lot of sense to see repetition here. 5dimes had 3rd quarters up on a lot of games. Not this one. Doubt that is an accident. If the game is tight after the first half it is not disloyal to play Houston here in the third. Do not run at 4 or 5 points.in this spot Houston can put on pressure but very good chances that tired in the fourth we end at an 7 or 8 point game.

 

[tuck321]

5 dimes. Just went over to hit Minn first half again plus 6.5. In motion as I was clicking they changed the 6.5 to 6.

 

[tuck321]

GS had beaten the Sixers 6 in a row. The last time by 22. This season at home the Sixers play them
17-27 Sixers 22-30 Sixers half time up by 18 23-15 gs 19-17 gs
beat GS by a friendly 8 in a low scoring second half.
the next 3 teams GS plays are NO, Spurs, and Dallas. They dislike or hate all 3. Sixers are in a playoff race and GS used their best vets last night. Small bets on Sixers for the game and under game and under 4th quarter. Just a guess. Another Guess lacking time. Wizards plus 2.5 4th quarter. sorry out of time. Not sure about the first 3 picks. Hope I gave some content. GL