3.5

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
What a dumb decision to switch from Milw over to Milw(freaking line moves!! What person would take the under...?)...really wasnt but playing just one resulted in a -10.50 unit difference , not playing the Boston over was another 3 units I lost out and adding Seattle was another 3.30 units I cost myself....all that dumb shit and guess I should feel lucky down just 7 units when I gave away 17....oh and I got hosed with Justin reed hitting a jumper in the 1st H of Boston costing me an 8.40 unit swing! The headaches,......

I havent looked at much but I figured this out real early this morning when I looked at them...

Hawks +6 {5units} ML +220 {1/2 unit}
Utah Jazz 1st H -7.5 {4units}

I guess to be honest there are some things that make fading Miami idiotic...they are 9-1 past 10 at home only the 6 pt loss vs Dallas. They are 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS when playing on 2 days rest. Which I attribute to a roster filled of odder vets who like/need the extra time off...

The difference is opponent here. Motivation is key for a team like Miami filled with older players who cant bring the same level of intensity every nite. They play hard every nite but some games more then others provide that adrenaline rush...

Now they have two nice upsets of quality teams like Cle and Det ( since Wade went down where lines were overcomepensated) from the Central which ATL is not on that class. They have the look ahead spot to Chi on Wed who came in and thrashed them on opening nite in what was supposed to be all about the MIAMI HEAT nite! That will get the vets salivating if you ask me...I am sure other posters will say that as well...nobody wants to be embarrassed at home especially after you won a Championship and having a ceremony...Miami is in a position to do something about it. They played hard twice up @ the United Center but this is a different venue! The pendelum swings...

While Shaq provides a great mismatch I think Joe Johnson should have his way especially if Jason Kapono is guarding him...Atlanta is off a bad loss to NY where they blew a gigantic lead....hopefully that ignites a young team constantly searching....The last few meetings have been close and Wade was absent in some of them..All the games really since Wade went down have been low scoring grinding games...might take the UNDER since ATL owes me an under from the Sat game...MF'ers!Since the Knick game its been all about defense...only two teams broke 85 vs Miami ...89 Cle and 93 Char which allowed 113..

With Utah these team is steam rolling people and not getting much acknowledgement . 14,26 and 16 there MOV in past 3 road games...this at home...beat Boston by 18 and Atl by 26...Bobcats won 4 in arow that got dealt some injuries losing Okefor and have been downhill since...allowing a ton of points and getting badly blownout by some avg teams ....

This is nearing the end of the trip with just PHO on deck and you have to think Utah has to much offense and rebounding here. Charlotte has typical played them close but I think with the lone meeting be a loss and the Jazz being in a groove and Bobcats in a funk this could be DD by halftime......

Thats all for now...BOL all
 
Thanks Satyr and smallbet...BOL

Have to look at the rest of the games still. Couldnt sleep wokeup early this morning and these stood out from the get go...
 
Milw @ Orlando :

Its real hard to figure mindset here...Orlando maybe they wokeup vs Dallas..?? Milw maybe they are hungover from the Chi meltdown yesterday...Really think the line is to high but dont want to get involved due to this situation...and past history shows extreme preference to the home team..With a 200 total at home and Milw playing under the past 2 road games and off an OT shootout looking at the UNDER....

Cavs -3 {2units}
Over 181.5 {3units}

With Cle fade the returning star theory...Mings return probably wont mean as much in his 1st game back but the line reflects his presense. The over because I believe Hughes at the point will open the offense...its just a guess though...but they did put up 120 vs Tor and Hou has played 3 vers straight on the road.....

Hard to back GSW on the backend especially with DET having revenge. Who knows who will play but best to stay away for now....if Pistons cant crack 100 here they never will again!!!!So team over DET..??

Not interested in laying 7 w/o a starting PG no matter how well they are playing...but team over 90ish that peaks my interest..

added:
Under 186 Atlanta {2units}
 
so a joe johnson prop would be appropriate?

The only thing is figuring out Rileys rotation...he could have Eddie Jones guarding him half a game...I dont think JJ props are every really bad just not so sure I would say this an exceptional situation...BOL
 
I love it nut... if Shaq wanted to he could kill them, but he picks his spots. The Hawks are not one of those teams he'll be looking to exert himself against. I think Josh Smith is going to dominate tonight too, they've got noone for him, Haslem's too stiff. If there is a Smith prop out there for tonight, I'd suggest it
 
The only thing is figuring out Rileys rotation...he could have Eddie Jones guarding him half a game...I dont think JJ props are every really bad just not so sure I would say this an exceptional situation...BOL

Eddie Jones and James Posey will guard Joe Johnson.
 
JJ scored 30+ on Bowen and Battier within the last 10 games, an old Eddie Jones won't matter. If you think they're gonna win, Johnson will have a big game. I still like Smith better though tonight.
 
<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore_a0><TD colSpan=3>Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat 03/05: Player Props


</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b0><TD width="15%">Mon 3/5</TD><TD colSpan=2>Total points scored by Joe Johnson</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:35 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>201 Over</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">25.5 points -125</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>202 Under</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">25.5 points +109</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b1><TD width="15%">Mon 3/5</TD><TD colSpan=2>Total points scored by Josh Smith</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:35 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>203 Over</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">16.5 points -101</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>204 Under</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">16.5 points -115</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b2><TD width="15%">Mon 3/5</TD><TD colSpan=2>Total rebounds by Josh Smith</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:35 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>205 Over</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">9 rebounds -130</TD></TR><TR class=hiliteRow><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=MBB>206 Under</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">9 rebounds +114</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


This were @ Pinny which I still check to see therelines vs elsewhere...if they have them then they should be elswhere as well for those who were interested.....if you wanted to get ballzy then you could find a SHAQ prop under 20 ++++ money BOL
 
Near-perfect spot for Portland tomorrow against the Spurs. I'll be praying the Spurs win SU tonight. Check it out...

GL tonight!
 
Yeah scary shit...but its there FTs that kill me a simple 29 of 37...would have hit the over and Hou 33 in the 1st Half......wtf..???

I just hope ATL holds on they took the lead but Eddie Jones is en fuego 2nd H it seems....not looking good...

I lucked out playing Under 200 Orlando and GSW +12.5 but didnt feel like writing them up...ATL is huge right now it can east the pain...especially if Utah 1st H plays out the way I hope
 
Thanks Farm....10 of 32 I do wonder what that feels like though and what your teammates are thinking in the lockerroom when you lose by just 5..? BOL as well need them Hawks....
 
Well not suprising the hawks tear my heart out losing by 7 in a game they gave away..the Cavs and Rockets ouldnt hit enough FTs

so posted finished 3-2 -1.30 units but did hit GSW and under in Orlando..oh well typical day..1 basket away from huge +++$$$
 
For 3.6 though

Over 209 Washington and smaller play on Raps ML

Thinking NYK -2 maybe over 196 but Sonics huge UNDER run...

Thinking LAL +1.5 and over 198 ...

Thinking Over 190.5 NJN and NJN +11

NO +5.5 w/ melo missing...

Really Like Sac but line has dropped a point...??pacers are LOST...more lost then MrArtest
 
games that involve injuries i need to avoid more. i made that note to self tonight. what are your thoughts on portland tom, believe likes them.
 
i think all the home teams and SA in a ml parlay is cash money.

turns out that i was actually thinking very well tonight, what an odd occurence that is. should have said. "every home team covers outside of the clippers". would have gone 5-1 ATS. one of these days ill get it.


sidenote, damn those stones.
 
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