Well you guys know I love baseball and love my Yankees. So I'll do my best to try and step back and look at them objectively. Let me start by saying most of you know I respected Joe Torre but couldnt wait for him to get out of NY and couldnt be more pleased with Joe Girardi as the manager. Yestersday went well as did most of the first week.
One comment the greatest ability of anyone capping sports or even trading stocks is the ability to adjust and SEE, HEAR and LISTEN to what the market is telling you. Its why systems dont work in either arena because they can detect market fluctuations but they cant tell you why they are being caused . So basically what I am saying is all the stats , trends , weather , umpire , flyball to groundball ratio is great but the game isnt played into Fantasy Baseball land. Its about what is going today coupled with past tendecies. Especially since there are so many ups and downs for each player over a 162 game season. SO focus MORE on what is going on now whether that was has happened in the past.
How do I come to the conclusion Odalis Perez would pitch well ? Simply if he could 6 strong innings versus two solid lineups his last 2 spring outings chances are it would carry over against a lineup that was struggling all spring. He had the chance to pitch in what I feel is a pitchers park compared to the launching pad at Kaufman Stadium in KC , he wasnt in the AL and he was healthy , plus the numbers looked at indivually werent as bad last year as they appeared. Just because the season starts on Monday doesnt mean these guys are going to be much different then the guy playing the previous Wednesday. Same shit in season. If a pitcher is struggling just dont assume he will straighten himself in one outing , chances are it will linger just like a hot streak will extend itself.
Lastly while I feel like I am knowledgeable and enjoy chatting about the game and capping it by NO means do I feel like I have all the answers. If I ever come off like that I apologize in advance. Its more the misrepresentation of one's thoughts on a message board then anything else.
Some comments from yesterday 's thread??
1PM :
NYY -150 to -160
- A few reasons and some of it is motivation with the last home opener EVER @ Yankee Stadium and part of it is the 1st game with Girardi who seems to be drawing RAVE reviews from his players....not to mention we have WON 9 straight Openers
The REAL keys ...
- Wang at home , vs a RHP heavy lineup . Now he hasnt been sharp to date but this is the first time he left Spring Training HEALTHY as a YANKEE which is why his April numbers kinda stink in his young career . He always missed time in ST and always rushed to start the season without the proper work done in ST.
Wang pitches EXTREMELY well vs Tor at the Stadium in his short career spanning 5 HOME starts.
36.1 innings never going less then 7 which is a task on opening day.
29 hits allowed in that span but never more then 6 in a start.
10runs , 9 earned and never more then 3 in a start.
7 bbs 13 Ks and 1 HR
Bottomline at home vs Tor 2.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP
- Three new faces in Stewart , Scutaro and Eckstein in the lineup but all RHBs
LYR:
vs RHB .242 BAA, 1.15 WHIP , 2 Hrs
@ Home .235 BAA, 1.13 WHIP , 6hrs
21-7 Last 2 years in 33 home starts ( won 75% of his decisions).
Rolen is on the DL and Stairs is hurt, So the only LHB Wang should see are Overbay and Zaun plus 7 RHB's. Right into his strength.
Halladay LYR:
Away 4.28 ERA , 1.41 ERA , .287 BAA
LHB and RHB similiar numbers .265 vs LH and .270 vs RHB.
Last year vs solid in two outings vs NYY. 15 + innings just 5 runs which 2 were earned. Long history of pitching well at the Stadium.
Basically whats new?
1- Abreu - Last year he broke camp with an oblique injury and took forever to get going. This year got in good shape and swung well in ST hitting 333.
2-Cano - Had been a slow starter . 273 prebreak last year and 343 after and .325 vs 365 the previous year. Tore it up all ST...whether it counts or not 446 is impressive.
3-Giambi - Healthy , in shape and HAPPY. Torre was the only guy in NY who didnt realize Giambi hated DHing. Okay maybe he did but your paying the guy 120 million bucks and he went on some tears when healthy why not do the best to help him suceed? 2006 .289playing 1st vs 224 at DH , 2005 .319 @ 1b vs .209 at DH....you get the picture and so does Joe Girardi...expect HUGE things if Jason can stay healthy which has been near impossible..near MVP in 2006 till injuries derailed him,.( 36hrs and 107 RBI to start SEPT!)
4-Matsui Started the year on the DL in 07 finished with a 207 avg and 1hr last April. Now healthy and looking like the old Godzilla.
The biggest question mark seems to be Johnny Damon still. Last year when healthy he played well when he battled nagging injuries he looked a step or three to slow. Cabrera continues to make strides but he might be suspended tmrw not sure , jeter , ARod and Posada all have had fast starts in the past.
I guive NYY a huge edge in the pen right now. Most teams cant compete with Mo and Joba. Hawkins has looked solid and has a good track record , Bruney lost weight and was strong all spring. Right there you got some big dudes who can bring it. Still you have Farnsworth without no epxectations , Ohlendorf (big dude)making the transition to reliever and Traber as the situational LH which I like since his days as a MET farmhand.
TOR - Last year only Hill(owns Wang) , Rios and Stairs hit in the 280s vs RHP the rest of the lineup below 260. Stewart did hit 209 in OAK vs RHP but still is a downgrade from Stairs , Eckstein hit 317 for STL which is a nice boost , Scutaro 244 . Overbay dropped nearly 100 pts and is only 10/51 at the Stadium past 2 years...Wells hit about 226 and typical feasts on LHP , Thomas hasnt hita lick this spring and struggled at the Stadium as well also hitting significantyly lower vs RHP.
The pen has alot of question marks at least until Ryan returns.....
SP persay is about even but Wang excels at home , the NYY lineup is all LH and well just better from top to bottom , the NYY pen is much deeper , and we have motivation.....
Others :
Reds -110 and Over 8.5 ( hopefully 8) ,1st 5 INN over as well
- Supposed to be 70 @ Cincy. Nice weather , a small park , and a low total...Webb has been horrible all Spring and basically admits he is not wher ehe needs to be for the start of ST. Which means as a sinkerballer he will probably leave alot of sinkers up in the zone. ARI bullpen a strength last year has lost some quality arms.
"Honestly, I'm not where I want to be, definitely not in midseason form by any means," Webb said. "Pitch-count wise I was good. Arm strength wise and conditioning wise. I didn't feel tired."
So if he struggles not sure we see that same deep Zona pen this year. Real KEY is LHB 272 BAA LYR compared to 199 for RHB. The Reds should start 5 LHB here. The OF of Dunn , Griffey and Patterson , Hatteberg 1st 1st who won the job tearing up ST and Valentin behind the dish. Harrang looks season ready but the only knock I have onhim is he struggles in day starts. Last year 5ERA and 300BAA vs 2.86 ERA and 200BAA...so huge difference...yr before same deal not as exaggerated though..Reds pen has questions as well....Zona lineup hit real well out in ST...
The weather is okay low 60;s , high 50s but rain and wind which should help the batters..
Under 9.5 Philly 0
What the FUCK was MLB thinking?? 3 PM start in Philly after a night game? Myers looks solid so far and we saw how they struggled with Hudson this evening. There pen was rested outside of Rivera who went 2. Now they have to travel as well. Chico was decent last year and at time in ST. He gets to face a Philly team who didnt hit much this ST and better uets is vs LHB orientated...Chico was solid last year at Philly...
maybe some interest in DaCubbies , Under @ Balt 1st 5 with those lineups! , also WSOX +1.5RL possibly ML and again 1st 5 Under?? Also liked the KC under 8.5 but passed...
Plays : 2 PM Edition
Yanks and Cubs ML parlay 1.25units to win 2.1 units
Reds -110 {2units} -120 {1unit}
Over 8.5 -110 Cincy {3units}
Over 4.5 1st 5 Innings {2units}
Note: Using an On-Line bookie I have to pay some terrible prices so please take that into account in that I have no other option. Trust me I know I got raped paying -120 for Cincy and paid 140 or 150 for ChiC....
One comment the greatest ability of anyone capping sports or even trading stocks is the ability to adjust and SEE, HEAR and LISTEN to what the market is telling you. Its why systems dont work in either arena because they can detect market fluctuations but they cant tell you why they are being caused . So basically what I am saying is all the stats , trends , weather , umpire , flyball to groundball ratio is great but the game isnt played into Fantasy Baseball land. Its about what is going today coupled with past tendecies. Especially since there are so many ups and downs for each player over a 162 game season. SO focus MORE on what is going on now whether that was has happened in the past.
How do I come to the conclusion Odalis Perez would pitch well ? Simply if he could 6 strong innings versus two solid lineups his last 2 spring outings chances are it would carry over against a lineup that was struggling all spring. He had the chance to pitch in what I feel is a pitchers park compared to the launching pad at Kaufman Stadium in KC , he wasnt in the AL and he was healthy , plus the numbers looked at indivually werent as bad last year as they appeared. Just because the season starts on Monday doesnt mean these guys are going to be much different then the guy playing the previous Wednesday. Same shit in season. If a pitcher is struggling just dont assume he will straighten himself in one outing , chances are it will linger just like a hot streak will extend itself.
Lastly while I feel like I am knowledgeable and enjoy chatting about the game and capping it by NO means do I feel like I have all the answers. If I ever come off like that I apologize in advance. Its more the misrepresentation of one's thoughts on a message board then anything else.
Some comments from yesterday 's thread??
1PM :
NYY -150 to -160
- A few reasons and some of it is motivation with the last home opener EVER @ Yankee Stadium and part of it is the 1st game with Girardi who seems to be drawing RAVE reviews from his players....not to mention we have WON 9 straight Openers
The REAL keys ...
- Wang at home , vs a RHP heavy lineup . Now he hasnt been sharp to date but this is the first time he left Spring Training HEALTHY as a YANKEE which is why his April numbers kinda stink in his young career . He always missed time in ST and always rushed to start the season without the proper work done in ST.
Wang pitches EXTREMELY well vs Tor at the Stadium in his short career spanning 5 HOME starts.
36.1 innings never going less then 7 which is a task on opening day.
29 hits allowed in that span but never more then 6 in a start.
10runs , 9 earned and never more then 3 in a start.
7 bbs 13 Ks and 1 HR
Bottomline at home vs Tor 2.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP
- Three new faces in Stewart , Scutaro and Eckstein in the lineup but all RHBs
LYR:
vs RHB .242 BAA, 1.15 WHIP , 2 Hrs
@ Home .235 BAA, 1.13 WHIP , 6hrs
21-7 Last 2 years in 33 home starts ( won 75% of his decisions).
Rolen is on the DL and Stairs is hurt, So the only LHB Wang should see are Overbay and Zaun plus 7 RHB's. Right into his strength.
Halladay LYR:
Away 4.28 ERA , 1.41 ERA , .287 BAA
LHB and RHB similiar numbers .265 vs LH and .270 vs RHB.
Last year vs solid in two outings vs NYY. 15 + innings just 5 runs which 2 were earned. Long history of pitching well at the Stadium.
Basically whats new?
1- Abreu - Last year he broke camp with an oblique injury and took forever to get going. This year got in good shape and swung well in ST hitting 333.
2-Cano - Had been a slow starter . 273 prebreak last year and 343 after and .325 vs 365 the previous year. Tore it up all ST...whether it counts or not 446 is impressive.
3-Giambi - Healthy , in shape and HAPPY. Torre was the only guy in NY who didnt realize Giambi hated DHing. Okay maybe he did but your paying the guy 120 million bucks and he went on some tears when healthy why not do the best to help him suceed? 2006 .289playing 1st vs 224 at DH , 2005 .319 @ 1b vs .209 at DH....you get the picture and so does Joe Girardi...expect HUGE things if Jason can stay healthy which has been near impossible..near MVP in 2006 till injuries derailed him,.( 36hrs and 107 RBI to start SEPT!)
4-Matsui Started the year on the DL in 07 finished with a 207 avg and 1hr last April. Now healthy and looking like the old Godzilla.
The biggest question mark seems to be Johnny Damon still. Last year when healthy he played well when he battled nagging injuries he looked a step or three to slow. Cabrera continues to make strides but he might be suspended tmrw not sure , jeter , ARod and Posada all have had fast starts in the past.
I guive NYY a huge edge in the pen right now. Most teams cant compete with Mo and Joba. Hawkins has looked solid and has a good track record , Bruney lost weight and was strong all spring. Right there you got some big dudes who can bring it. Still you have Farnsworth without no epxectations , Ohlendorf (big dude)making the transition to reliever and Traber as the situational LH which I like since his days as a MET farmhand.
TOR - Last year only Hill(owns Wang) , Rios and Stairs hit in the 280s vs RHP the rest of the lineup below 260. Stewart did hit 209 in OAK vs RHP but still is a downgrade from Stairs , Eckstein hit 317 for STL which is a nice boost , Scutaro 244 . Overbay dropped nearly 100 pts and is only 10/51 at the Stadium past 2 years...Wells hit about 226 and typical feasts on LHP , Thomas hasnt hita lick this spring and struggled at the Stadium as well also hitting significantyly lower vs RHP.
The pen has alot of question marks at least until Ryan returns.....
SP persay is about even but Wang excels at home , the NYY lineup is all LH and well just better from top to bottom , the NYY pen is much deeper , and we have motivation.....
Others :
Reds -110 and Over 8.5 ( hopefully 8) ,1st 5 INN over as well
- Supposed to be 70 @ Cincy. Nice weather , a small park , and a low total...Webb has been horrible all Spring and basically admits he is not wher ehe needs to be for the start of ST. Which means as a sinkerballer he will probably leave alot of sinkers up in the zone. ARI bullpen a strength last year has lost some quality arms.
"Honestly, I'm not where I want to be, definitely not in midseason form by any means," Webb said. "Pitch-count wise I was good. Arm strength wise and conditioning wise. I didn't feel tired."
So if he struggles not sure we see that same deep Zona pen this year. Real KEY is LHB 272 BAA LYR compared to 199 for RHB. The Reds should start 5 LHB here. The OF of Dunn , Griffey and Patterson , Hatteberg 1st 1st who won the job tearing up ST and Valentin behind the dish. Harrang looks season ready but the only knock I have onhim is he struggles in day starts. Last year 5ERA and 300BAA vs 2.86 ERA and 200BAA...so huge difference...yr before same deal not as exaggerated though..Reds pen has questions as well....Zona lineup hit real well out in ST...
The weather is okay low 60;s , high 50s but rain and wind which should help the batters..
Under 9.5 Philly 0
What the FUCK was MLB thinking?? 3 PM start in Philly after a night game? Myers looks solid so far and we saw how they struggled with Hudson this evening. There pen was rested outside of Rivera who went 2. Now they have to travel as well. Chico was decent last year and at time in ST. He gets to face a Philly team who didnt hit much this ST and better uets is vs LHB orientated...Chico was solid last year at Philly...
maybe some interest in DaCubbies , Under @ Balt 1st 5 with those lineups! , also WSOX +1.5RL possibly ML and again 1st 5 Under?? Also liked the KC under 8.5 but passed...
Plays : 2 PM Edition
Yanks and Cubs ML parlay 1.25units to win 2.1 units
Reds -110 {2units} -120 {1unit}
Over 8.5 -110 Cincy {3units}
Over 4.5 1st 5 Innings {2units}
Note: Using an On-Line bookie I have to pay some terrible prices so please take that into account in that I have no other option. Trust me I know I got raped paying -120 for Cincy and paid 140 or 150 for ChiC....
h and Cincy got on the board took in my 1st Half over 4.5 there already!!:shake:
