3*23*07

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
A winning night last night on a 1-1 card and up one unit. I kinda feel that Wednesday night was the start of a huge run and hopefully in a few weeks we can look back and say as much. Now 4-1 and up 11 units the last two days. Thats a good start.

Friday's card doesn't look all that enticing to me. Theres only one game that I like and thats tonight's feature play. Its square as hell but frankly we are entering that time of year. The traps and fades start to be less and less as March winds down each year and we turn towards playoff time.

Miami @ Indiana

This game already features a bit of reverse line movement. It opened today @ 2.5 and has crept back to 2 and in some cases 1.5. I just take that as big players that love home underdogs. Sometimes you just can't read too much into a game.

The Indiana Pacers are still in the playoff hunt but they really aren't. This team is spiraling towards the lottery fast as can be. One win in the last few weeks has done nothing for them. They just lost by double-digits doing a quick Texas two-step and return home to face a surging Heat team. Larry Bird may have wanted to improve team chemistry and image with his trades but frankly this team has gotten so much worse. Foster, J.O are about the only players I see with much value on this team. Dunleavy is horrific on defense and Tinsley is a tyicking time bomb. Add in a limping J.O and this team just isn't right at this time.

Miami will control tempo and make this an ugly game. The new 'finesse' Pacers will be outclassed from the start. Expect the Heat to wear them down slowly bu tsurely and coast late.

Heat 91-81

Miami -2 -110 3 units
 
Another very short line for the Heat put out there by Vegas. A head scratcher for sure. You're prob right just not to overthink this.
 
BAR,

I would expect more plays from you on such a busy card...
Vegas more focused on college lines right now.

Just saying I think you should look at that card again, I am sure you will find something that isn't forced...

Good Luck...
 
Well...ATL Hawks...lets break it down a bit more...

I won;t be playing games the rest of season for most part involving two non-playoff teams.

I will focus on teams that are trying to reach playoffs or for critical seeding.

So..we can eliminate..

Charlotte @ Philadelphia
Portland @ Atlanta
Minnesota @ Seattle


Then you have games where both teams are foighting for playoff lives...these are harder...and I don;t see any special circumstances to take one team(at this point..)

New Jersey @ Orlando
Denver @ Toronto
New York @ Cleveland
LA Lakers @ New Orleans
Washington @ Golden State


Now, thats 8 games eliminated for now. Add in game I already played and thats 75 percent of the card.

So,...

I can still look at...

Dallas @ Boston
Detroit @ San Antonio(which really fits into the latter category but this game has situational implications as well)
Utah @ LA Clippers(also two potential playoff teams but again perhaps a situational play)



So, I eliminated most of the card.

I played one.

Dallas and Boston doesn't interest me whatsoever. Too close together playing games and Dallas off 3 very solid wins in the East.

Detroit and San Antonio interesting. Big revenge and Detroit typically rebounds well in these situations. Will wait till tomorrow to look at this one more.

LA Clippers ended East trip in fine fashion. First game back against a Utah team that needs to get back to winning. I need to look into Utah a bit more before I fire.
 
BAR,

Thanks for the reply, very interesting to see how you are thinking...
I admire your ability to be patient and steadfast with your bets.
 
How can line be -2, when Miami covered -2.5 @ Nets and -4.5 @ Hawks.
Miami even has a revenge angle.

Bookies have a lot of balls putting this line out. No wonder some of them have taken it down again. It will be -4 at least by game time.
 
Mímir said:
How can line be -2, when Miami covered -2.5 @ Nets and -4.5 @ Hawks.
Miami even has a revenge angle.

Bookies have a lot of balls putting this line out. No wonder some of them have taken it down again. It will be -4 at least by game time.
Click to expand...

probly based on the history between these two more than recent performance.

....just a guess.

:shake:
 
If I lose laying 2 with Miami, kudos to the books for outsmarting me. It is a consideration that Gonzo can probably not play, and if Shaq somehow happens to be out too then I will be sorry I made this bet.

The books think the Pacers will get up for this game, look at this boxscore from the last game where Miami got beat Wade included.

http://www.nba.com/games/20070124/MIAIND/boxscore.html
 
Last edited:
I think the line is short because the books factored the results the last time these two teams met. Pacers won over the Heat with both Shaq and Wade around.

Good point raising the similarity of this line with that of the Houston-Detroit game. I think this one goes up. Looking to play Miami once it becomes available in my local bookie regardless if the spread goes up to -3 or -3.5.

Cheers!!!
 
B.A.R.

I jumped on this line last nite also.

Heat are playing for first place in their division and are only I believe 1/2 game out of first and Washington is playing tonight on the road against GS and favored to lose.

If Heat win - and I'm not sure if this works like it does in hockey - they could jump from 7th place in playoff standings to as high as 2nd or 3rd since they would lead the division.

I got it at 2 1/2. Wanted to buy the hook but didn't and it usually kills me when I don't buy the hook.
 
Utah @ LA Clippers

Line got posted on this while I was sleeping about where I thought it would. Now, I am taking a flyer on this game with another road favorite...so beware..lol

The Jazz have been slumping miserably. They returned home from a East trip the other night to have to struggle past the GSW. It was a game they really coulda lost. Its a setp in the right direction and now they are fighting fir homecourt in the playoffs.

The Clippers responded bigtime at the end of their East Coast trip. They took down the Bulls and Bucks to end the trip. I was especially impressed by their win in Milwaukee. It wasn't the fact they won against the Bucks but that they could do that at the end of the trip after winning against a playoff team the night before. Now, I know Clippers are still in playoff race, but this is still a mismanaged group this year and they do not deserve to make the playoffs.

Utah size and accuracy should be too much for the Clippers. If this was EB from last year I would be cocerned but alas it is not.

Jazz 95-86


Utah -2 -110 3 units
 
RandyJA-it is correct that the Heat can move to 2nd/3rd place by being first in their division. Thats why its critical for them to pass Washington in the standings.

c.r.e.a.m.-its an odd line no doubt. I think its a bit of that and the fact the Pacers for some reason still garner respect around the league

mimir-I am pretty much thinking along the same lines

H.R pufnstuf-very well could be fishy. Now if O'Neal(Shaquille) is out then I would hedge. If its one other player I won;t worry.

AtlHawks-thank you. Sometimes when one looks at a card they can get overwhelmed. I always try and break it down a little. This time of year is easier because I can eliminate so many games.

redbearde-sounds good..lets cash this
 
I like the Heat bet and it was my first lean of the card. I'm also looking at Golden State.

GL tonight BAR. :shake:
 
BAR, I expect my boys to manhandle your Pistons tonight, we'll see it's a big game, but I think they get it done. ;).
 
Thanks fellas

Detroit+6 -110

small play. I see a tight one here...not going bigger because of DET slow starts with hurt guards
 
In regards to Detroit......they played Delfino and Mcdyess to end the 4th quarter last night instead of Rip and Tayshaun.......I see the Pistons keeping it close throughout
 
Good luck on your card BAR. To no surprise, I also like the Stons. We have revenge and we are getting six? I agree that at the very least we can hang close with this one. The only thing that worries me is how hurt is Chauncey. i don't know because I moved to this fucking city Mount Pleasant and I never get to see the Pistons anymore. If they aren't on Fox sports I don't get it. It is so frustrating. I am not a really big hockey fan so i kind of pisses me off when the Wings are on because that means I definitely won't be watching the Stons, such bull shit.
 
Looks like the Pacers line won't go above 3. This concerns me, the bookies don't flinch on this one, somehow they know that Pacers will show up.

In fact Pinny just now has reverse line movement back to 2.5.

I'm getting a queer feeling. After all, Miami has a losing road record.

How sure are we that they will show up? They're chasing the Wiz, avenging a loss. The Diesel is humming, but they need Gonzo to cover when he's not on the court.

Pacers didn't play all that badly lately. Against Rockets away, they had the lead with 8 mins left, and they crushed the Hawks in the latest home game.

I have now middled most of my dime bet, I'm a chicken.
 
Something smells fishy in Indiana, an hour ago the line was hovering at 3 and now it's at -2 (-105)?

I have a feeling Shaq is out. Anyone know whats up?
 
love how the Pistons game unfolded BAR, I had no bets in it, your boys covered but Spurs won ;).

GL with Utah, I' m hoping these Warriors can pick it up and cover.
 
Tomorrow's card does indeed blow... Sunday might present us with some good shit tho, I'll hit u up with anything I'm eyeing and do the same for me
 
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