Well last nite was struggle. I barely finished positive and well it was more luck then anything. I wish I had developed my thoughts on NJN/ Den a little better. I was very confident that the way these teams play that NJN would worst case win at least 1 Half last nite. So I liked the idea of playing NJN 1st H and then depending on how it worked rolling that over to Den 2nd H . Of course I kept it to myself and it worked out perfectly. Good for me but that doesnt give anyone any of the money back they may have lost by listening to me about NJN. The Nets didnt deserve to win plain and simple. To allow a 24-6 run is in excusable at this point on your home floor especially when AI is like 8 of 24 shooting. I dont regret the play cause really just about everything happened they way I thought it would except Melo played like Melo instead of the version he has been versus NJ in the past and NJ was woeful on offense against one of the worse defenses in the league. Remember I said DEN needs to score 110+ to win as they were 22-3 when that happened. Well yesterday they won there 1st game of the season scoring less then 99 points, now something like 1-23 when they fail to break 99. So we all knew how bad DEN defense was and how they need to outscore there opponents. I just the 110 factor but a face on the situation. Moving on that loss really didnt bother me near as much as the way Cle/ Char unfolded. Last I checked Cavs wer uo 10,11, 12 with 8 or so to play in the game. next thing I see its toed 94 up with 30 seconds left. Well I felt that Cle and Dal both had good chances of blwoing out there opponents last nite. So I went CLE ML in a 3 team parlay but couldnt get off making a small play on NYK. No big deal lost 1.5 units on the NYK. However the ML parlay lost due to Cle losing in OT, the UNDER 195 which had 83 pts ta half lost and the Bobcats Under 94 which had 37 freaking points at half....so that meltdown but a disinterested Cavs team cost me apprx 20 units and the Nets were my biggest posted play and I still won money...thats a good sign. It was mostaly about LAC cause I hit that ML , also won with NO, the Mavs under and GSW under . Most of the other stuff I stayed away from was wise in the end....thats my dissatifaction vent for the day...Sorry I just feel like it helps me move past it....I am damn perfectionist and only nites like Monday make me proud but as I was telling some one if yesterday was supposed to be a bad day hell I can live with it as long as its still a PLUS one...
Oh yeah we have games....
Hawks +5 -115 {4units} ML +180 {1/2unit}
I know HR PuffNStuff will say I am fading Miami again. Now I am hooked though as I was correct in doing so vs Orlando. Atlanta obviously doesnt have JJ but wait they are now 5-0 at home w/o him. So why fade them now?? They still havent become overvalued at home. ATL has managed tomake the past 4 meetings competitive. They jsut lost by 7 in Miami , lost in OT at home this year , lost by 3 in ATL last year and lost by 2 in Miami. Now I know Miami is off a SU loss but they aslo have 2 games coming up vs Indiana and Philly in payback situations for games they lost away in OT somewhat recently . Heat are just 4-9 SU last 13 away since the battle vs Kobe in LAL. The wins were recently against NJN and Wash and previously versus injury depleted Boston and Milw. Thinking it should be low scoring but not crazy about the number maybe 1st H..maybe get risky and play Over ATL team and Under Miami team...not sure...
Orlando Magic +5 {2.5units} ML +180 {1/2unit} 1st Half +3 {1.5units}
Its all about health here. Battie has returned and suprisingly the two biggest keys to the Magic play seem to have been Hedo and Battie. That put Darko Milic back on the bench where he was solid. It also leaves Toronto without possibly 3 key players. Calderon and Parker were questionable before A.B. had his emergency surgery today. Orlando tend to struggle recently with the game after a WIN so beware of that. I like how Dwight Howard played last time in ORL and since then TOR injury situation has weakened them. Last meting Tor was -6 and pulled away in the 4th to win by 10 pts they coud be minus 3 players were ORL has gained Grant Hill , Ariza , Battie and Dooling since.
Boston -8 {5units}(played it at -7.5 actually but 8 is cheapest now)
Over 103 Boston team {3units}
Over 198.5 {2units}
I think Char showed in the 2nd H how they want to play ball. Now off of OT vs a rested opponent who is quietly improving they could be in for toruble. Boston has feasted on poor defensive teams at home recently where Chi and Hous kept themin check with 78 and 80 pts. They beat ATL 109 - 88 , Sea 118-103 , Minny 124-117 , NYK 102-94 , and Milw 117-97 in what was Pierce's 1st home game back .
Okefor , May and Knight all are extremely DOUBTFUL here with the Anderson boyz Alan and Derek becoming extremely questionable now. They just got Primo and Othello back so they are limited and a B2B probably isnt the best thing for them.
While the spread seems high remember in a better spot the Bobkitties were +9 at Milwaukee....They have lost 7 straight away and 11 of 12 now. This seems to be Boston's new Cup Of Tea....blowing out bad teams at home....Like the other younger squads Boston is so much more dangerous at home.
Under 187 Dallas {2.5units} 1st H Under 92 or better {2.5units}
I wont take any credit for a play Killa posted well before me. Cleveland will bring the defensive intensity they showed vs Utah and versus Char for the 1st H yesterday. We all know how good Dallas is defenively . Add to that they are 10-2 UNDER on ZERO days rest allowing 85 pts in this situation however they did allow 117 to the Run N Gun Warriors in the last occurrence but we all know about that situation with Nelson and GSW style.
Spurs -7.5 -115 1st Half {4units}
Pacer injuries....SA is on 3 days rest and Indiana playing B2B without much in the middle. Spurs are known for allowing backdoors that why I prefer the 1st Half. The negative is SA is on a bad run losing 2 straight but failing to cover in 5 of 6. Hopefully the losses inspire them to get done early tonite. I think Tinsley is actually more important then O'Neal to the team but with Duncan that may change my view.
LAC +6.5 {3units} ML +240 {1/2unit}
1st H +3.5 {1unit}
Simply riding a hot team . After the impressive SA win they were lackluster vs Charlotte. Spurs help take away some of the shine by losing SU at home to Boston right after that. The scare part is definetly the thin LAC bench really only Ross if Tim Thomas cant go tonite. Plus Hart and Ewing splitting the point....
Wolves +6.5 {3units} ML +240 {1/2unit}
They stink for sure but you have tread BAR's thoughts and angle I am sure. Sca could be real light in the middle w/o Miller and Thomas who expects to play. You have to lean towards an OVER here but not playing yet. Simply put these teams both have issues and I woul dmake either -4 on its home floor . B2B after the Suns can be tough but this game is there ROAD trip IMO and SAC is 1st game back after an EAST COAST trip.
So I like the DOGGIES tonite.....BOL:cheers:
Oh yeah we have games....
Hawks +5 -115 {4units} ML +180 {1/2unit}
I know HR PuffNStuff will say I am fading Miami again. Now I am hooked though as I was correct in doing so vs Orlando. Atlanta obviously doesnt have JJ but wait they are now 5-0 at home w/o him. So why fade them now?? They still havent become overvalued at home. ATL has managed tomake the past 4 meetings competitive. They jsut lost by 7 in Miami , lost in OT at home this year , lost by 3 in ATL last year and lost by 2 in Miami. Now I know Miami is off a SU loss but they aslo have 2 games coming up vs Indiana and Philly in payback situations for games they lost away in OT somewhat recently . Heat are just 4-9 SU last 13 away since the battle vs Kobe in LAL. The wins were recently against NJN and Wash and previously versus injury depleted Boston and Milw. Thinking it should be low scoring but not crazy about the number maybe 1st H..maybe get risky and play Over ATL team and Under Miami team...not sure...
Orlando Magic +5 {2.5units} ML +180 {1/2unit} 1st Half +3 {1.5units}
Its all about health here. Battie has returned and suprisingly the two biggest keys to the Magic play seem to have been Hedo and Battie. That put Darko Milic back on the bench where he was solid. It also leaves Toronto without possibly 3 key players. Calderon and Parker were questionable before A.B. had his emergency surgery today. Orlando tend to struggle recently with the game after a WIN so beware of that. I like how Dwight Howard played last time in ORL and since then TOR injury situation has weakened them. Last meting Tor was -6 and pulled away in the 4th to win by 10 pts they coud be minus 3 players were ORL has gained Grant Hill , Ariza , Battie and Dooling since.
Boston -8 {5units}(played it at -7.5 actually but 8 is cheapest now)
Over 103 Boston team {3units}
Over 198.5 {2units}
I think Char showed in the 2nd H how they want to play ball. Now off of OT vs a rested opponent who is quietly improving they could be in for toruble. Boston has feasted on poor defensive teams at home recently where Chi and Hous kept themin check with 78 and 80 pts. They beat ATL 109 - 88 , Sea 118-103 , Minny 124-117 , NYK 102-94 , and Milw 117-97 in what was Pierce's 1st home game back .
Okefor , May and Knight all are extremely DOUBTFUL here with the Anderson boyz Alan and Derek becoming extremely questionable now. They just got Primo and Othello back so they are limited and a B2B probably isnt the best thing for them.
While the spread seems high remember in a better spot the Bobkitties were +9 at Milwaukee....They have lost 7 straight away and 11 of 12 now. This seems to be Boston's new Cup Of Tea....blowing out bad teams at home....Like the other younger squads Boston is so much more dangerous at home.
Under 187 Dallas {2.5units} 1st H Under 92 or better {2.5units}
I wont take any credit for a play Killa posted well before me. Cleveland will bring the defensive intensity they showed vs Utah and versus Char for the 1st H yesterday. We all know how good Dallas is defenively . Add to that they are 10-2 UNDER on ZERO days rest allowing 85 pts in this situation however they did allow 117 to the Run N Gun Warriors in the last occurrence but we all know about that situation with Nelson and GSW style.
Spurs -7.5 -115 1st Half {4units}
Pacer injuries....SA is on 3 days rest and Indiana playing B2B without much in the middle. Spurs are known for allowing backdoors that why I prefer the 1st Half. The negative is SA is on a bad run losing 2 straight but failing to cover in 5 of 6. Hopefully the losses inspire them to get done early tonite. I think Tinsley is actually more important then O'Neal to the team but with Duncan that may change my view.
LAC +6.5 {3units} ML +240 {1/2unit}
1st H +3.5 {1unit}
Simply riding a hot team . After the impressive SA win they were lackluster vs Charlotte. Spurs help take away some of the shine by losing SU at home to Boston right after that. The scare part is definetly the thin LAC bench really only Ross if Tim Thomas cant go tonite. Plus Hart and Ewing splitting the point....
Wolves +6.5 {3units} ML +240 {1/2unit}
They stink for sure but you have tread BAR's thoughts and angle I am sure. Sca could be real light in the middle w/o Miller and Thomas who expects to play. You have to lean towards an OVER here but not playing yet. Simply put these teams both have issues and I woul dmake either -4 on its home floor . B2B after the Suns can be tough but this game is there ROAD trip IMO and SAC is 1st game back after an EAST COAST trip.
So I like the DOGGIES tonite.....BOL:cheers:
