Today we have a nice short card. Hopefully I build on a solid Sunday here.
Hornets -5 -105 ( wait for better ) {6units} ML -210 (wait ) {4units}
These are two teams who appear to be heading in different directions. Boston with Pierce back appears to be playing a better level of basketball(13-5 ATS Last 18) where NO is fading in March losers of 7 of 8 (8 of 10 overall). So what makes NO attractive here? The Boston Celtics are the KINGS of covering on the road despite only 11 away win. They have managed a 25-9 ATS record on the road. There last game was there high point IMO which means regression now . Finally defeating the SA Spurs for the 1st time since 2/14 1990 . Yes, thats 1990 ! Possibly the best twist is the fact the Boston Celtics won on St.Patrick's Day!!! The Hornets are off what I deem there low point. They lost @ Wash by 22 allowing a season high 125 points and 58% FG shooting .
New Orleans is 2 games out in the race for the 8th seed in the playoffs. Chris Paul says the playoffs are the reason he is postponing surgery to the offseason and its all the Hornets are worrried about. "We have done a great job of fighting, we are still in the playoff hunt and that's what it's all about. Making the playoffs is the only thing on my mind right now." It has been written that NO two best players David West and Chris Paul were disgusted and worse embarrassed by the teams overall play on Saturday. Those guys trying to be leaders in my opinion will try to step it up here and lead by example. Supposedly Paul fired the ball at the backboard in digust on Sat and West is quoted as saying " We never stopped them at all" . When you allow a season high in points it plauisble to expect a much better effort on defense the following game especially if its at home. Boston held SA to 37% shooting expect those figures to flip-flop here.
The Hornets still are 19-13 at home where Boston is 11-23 away. Boston is now 4-10 SU away vs the West(9-5ATS). They have defeated Portland as 7 point underdogs , Memphis as 6.5 pt underdogs , Houston w/o TMac and Ming as 7 pt dogs , and now SA as 13 pt underdogs. So really the SA win was the 1st of note.
While the -5 may seem high think about the fact they caught 7 points when Hou was missing its 2 best players. The lowest spread for NO at home recently was -4.5 vs Seattle which they won but failed to cover the spread. Thats interesting cause Seattle traveled to Bos recently and were favored in Boston. They got beaten but the mere fact they were road chalk so a significant edge in power rankings bewteen the two. Simply put if the Sonics are worth a few more points then Boston then the spreads shouldnt be similiar. Its not just this team they both played NJN recently NO was -5 and lost a close game where Bos was +6 and won a tough game in OT. I have a fair number as -6.5 in this game so below -5 is nice value. WIth Bos @ -5 its saying that Boston is equivalent to NJ which we know is untrue.
In SA they jumped to 75-56 lead with 1 minute to play in the 3rd quarter. Then suddenly with a few minutes to play SA was leading 83-81.
But they then stopped moving the ball and that played right into the hands of the San Antonio defense, which in turn led to a 27-6 tear by the hosts, who took their first lead of the game with 5:12 remaining.
To one and all, it looked like another imminent collapse for the young Celtics, who were trying to survive in the face of a hostile crowd and a veteran team that thrives on such situations. This should tell us a good defensive effort will frustrate Boston and could put them in drought. Remember NO has been a decent defense all season and is coming off an embarrasing defensive performance. I was impressed that Boston played so well in a fourth game in 5 nite spots. This will be a 3rd game in 4 nites spot after playing @ Dallas , @ SA now @ New Orleans. This is also a 5th in 7 games spot but so was the SA effort. Overall though this is Boston 10th game in 17 days. They had a soild performance from a forgotten man in Michael Olawakondi in SA. Does he setup again with Gomes and probably Scalabrine absent ??
When NO started getting healthy its level of play significantly increased. They had won 12 of 13 at home( a hiccup to Philly) before dropping the past two at home to Utah who had payback and NJN which also happened to be payback for NO winning in FEB @ NJ. Wouldnt say BOS has payback losing the opener as a smal fav. In Feb the Hornets lost 3 winnable road games @ Charlotte , @ Memphis and @ Sacramento with the Kings game being the only one decided by more then 5 points (it was 6points). Since the home win vs Seattle the Hornets are just 2-8 SU. However while that looks bad look at the competition : 8pt loss @ Cleveland , 11pt loss @ Chi , home loss to Utah , 15 pt loss @ Denver where they had won in OT recently , 1pt loss in Pho and 10pt loss in Utah , and 4 pt home loss to NJN before the Was embarrasment. Which it hasnt been noted that they did arrive 3 AM Sat morning for that game. So that had to be a negative effect in a b2b situtaion where they had won the previous night.
Right now Boston has a short bench with Olowokondi , Green , Ray and Powe. So really its depending on Rondo , West , Jefferson and Pierce. The leader Pierce only avgs 21 ppg on 41% shooting is his career vs the Hornets.
Some quotes regarding the Celtics ATS road record : "I think a lot of (Boston’s) success is a case of catching some teams in the right situation where they are overlooking them,” says professional handicapper David Jones. “Teams read the papers, they are aware of Boston’s record. A lot of teams just don’t bring the focus needed to cover these big spreads.”
"The marketplace hasn’t caught up to the Celtics,” says Jones.
“This is one of those spots where you may lose a point of value because of overreaction to the win against San Antonio,” says Jones. “There is also the possibility that they would come out flat after the big win. New Orleans is also playing for that eighth playoff spot in the West and is a good bet (18-13-1 against the spread) at home.
“Then again, it’s tough to go against a team that is (25-9 against the spread) on the road.”
So if the Celtics have benefited from teams overlooking and we can guess that after a bad loss NO will be focused here doesnt that erase Boston's best asset? Also if I said I felt the line should be 6.5 and it opened 5.5 with a pro handicapper stating the SA win probably takes a point away from the celts value. Well I have to feel correct that my numbers are accurate and we are getting some value.
http://www.nola.com/hornets/t-p/index.ssf?/base/sports-2/1174196720250770.xml&coll=1
http://www.boston.com/sports/basket.../03/18/celtics_end_losing_streak_at_17_years/
Good Luck today. Still looking at the other game:cheers:
Hornets -5 -105 ( wait for better ) {6units} ML -210 (wait ) {4units}
These are two teams who appear to be heading in different directions. Boston with Pierce back appears to be playing a better level of basketball(13-5 ATS Last 18) where NO is fading in March losers of 7 of 8 (8 of 10 overall). So what makes NO attractive here? The Boston Celtics are the KINGS of covering on the road despite only 11 away win. They have managed a 25-9 ATS record on the road. There last game was there high point IMO which means regression now . Finally defeating the SA Spurs for the 1st time since 2/14 1990 . Yes, thats 1990 ! Possibly the best twist is the fact the Boston Celtics won on St.Patrick's Day!!! The Hornets are off what I deem there low point. They lost @ Wash by 22 allowing a season high 125 points and 58% FG shooting .
New Orleans is 2 games out in the race for the 8th seed in the playoffs. Chris Paul says the playoffs are the reason he is postponing surgery to the offseason and its all the Hornets are worrried about. "We have done a great job of fighting, we are still in the playoff hunt and that's what it's all about. Making the playoffs is the only thing on my mind right now." It has been written that NO two best players David West and Chris Paul were disgusted and worse embarrassed by the teams overall play on Saturday. Those guys trying to be leaders in my opinion will try to step it up here and lead by example. Supposedly Paul fired the ball at the backboard in digust on Sat and West is quoted as saying " We never stopped them at all" . When you allow a season high in points it plauisble to expect a much better effort on defense the following game especially if its at home. Boston held SA to 37% shooting expect those figures to flip-flop here.
The Hornets still are 19-13 at home where Boston is 11-23 away. Boston is now 4-10 SU away vs the West(9-5ATS). They have defeated Portland as 7 point underdogs , Memphis as 6.5 pt underdogs , Houston w/o TMac and Ming as 7 pt dogs , and now SA as 13 pt underdogs. So really the SA win was the 1st of note.
While the -5 may seem high think about the fact they caught 7 points when Hou was missing its 2 best players. The lowest spread for NO at home recently was -4.5 vs Seattle which they won but failed to cover the spread. Thats interesting cause Seattle traveled to Bos recently and were favored in Boston. They got beaten but the mere fact they were road chalk so a significant edge in power rankings bewteen the two. Simply put if the Sonics are worth a few more points then Boston then the spreads shouldnt be similiar. Its not just this team they both played NJN recently NO was -5 and lost a close game where Bos was +6 and won a tough game in OT. I have a fair number as -6.5 in this game so below -5 is nice value. WIth Bos @ -5 its saying that Boston is equivalent to NJ which we know is untrue.
In SA they jumped to 75-56 lead with 1 minute to play in the 3rd quarter. Then suddenly with a few minutes to play SA was leading 83-81.
But they then stopped moving the ball and that played right into the hands of the San Antonio defense, which in turn led to a 27-6 tear by the hosts, who took their first lead of the game with 5:12 remaining.
To one and all, it looked like another imminent collapse for the young Celtics, who were trying to survive in the face of a hostile crowd and a veteran team that thrives on such situations. This should tell us a good defensive effort will frustrate Boston and could put them in drought. Remember NO has been a decent defense all season and is coming off an embarrasing defensive performance. I was impressed that Boston played so well in a fourth game in 5 nite spots. This will be a 3rd game in 4 nites spot after playing @ Dallas , @ SA now @ New Orleans. This is also a 5th in 7 games spot but so was the SA effort. Overall though this is Boston 10th game in 17 days. They had a soild performance from a forgotten man in Michael Olawakondi in SA. Does he setup again with Gomes and probably Scalabrine absent ??
When NO started getting healthy its level of play significantly increased. They had won 12 of 13 at home( a hiccup to Philly) before dropping the past two at home to Utah who had payback and NJN which also happened to be payback for NO winning in FEB @ NJ. Wouldnt say BOS has payback losing the opener as a smal fav. In Feb the Hornets lost 3 winnable road games @ Charlotte , @ Memphis and @ Sacramento with the Kings game being the only one decided by more then 5 points (it was 6points). Since the home win vs Seattle the Hornets are just 2-8 SU. However while that looks bad look at the competition : 8pt loss @ Cleveland , 11pt loss @ Chi , home loss to Utah , 15 pt loss @ Denver where they had won in OT recently , 1pt loss in Pho and 10pt loss in Utah , and 4 pt home loss to NJN before the Was embarrasment. Which it hasnt been noted that they did arrive 3 AM Sat morning for that game. So that had to be a negative effect in a b2b situtaion where they had won the previous night.
Right now Boston has a short bench with Olowokondi , Green , Ray and Powe. So really its depending on Rondo , West , Jefferson and Pierce. The leader Pierce only avgs 21 ppg on 41% shooting is his career vs the Hornets.
Some quotes regarding the Celtics ATS road record : "I think a lot of (Boston’s) success is a case of catching some teams in the right situation where they are overlooking them,” says professional handicapper David Jones. “Teams read the papers, they are aware of Boston’s record. A lot of teams just don’t bring the focus needed to cover these big spreads.”
"The marketplace hasn’t caught up to the Celtics,” says Jones.
“This is one of those spots where you may lose a point of value because of overreaction to the win against San Antonio,” says Jones. “There is also the possibility that they would come out flat after the big win. New Orleans is also playing for that eighth playoff spot in the West and is a good bet (18-13-1 against the spread) at home.
“Then again, it’s tough to go against a team that is (25-9 against the spread) on the road.”
So if the Celtics have benefited from teams overlooking and we can guess that after a bad loss NO will be focused here doesnt that erase Boston's best asset? Also if I said I felt the line should be 6.5 and it opened 5.5 with a pro handicapper stating the SA win probably takes a point away from the celts value. Well I have to feel correct that my numbers are accurate and we are getting some value.
http://www.nola.com/hornets/t-p/index.ssf?/base/sports-2/1174196720250770.xml&coll=1
http://www.boston.com/sports/basket.../03/18/celtics_end_losing_streak_at_17_years/
Good Luck today. Still looking at the other game:cheers:
GL tonight.
