298

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
This should be a great card tonight, with several great matchups. Some of the odds are quite prohibitive, making it tough to find value...but that's no reason to tarry! :biglaugh:

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2024 has been great so far. Haven't had a losing card yet, so let keep pounding the rock!

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UFC 298: VOLKANOVSKI VS TOPURIA​

Early prelims:​

  • 2/3.60 ANDREA LEE +180
  • 4/1.34 LEE / MAVERICK o2½ -298
  • 2/1.63 OBAN ELLIOTT INSIDE DISTANCE -123
  • 1/6.50 OBAN ELLIOTT IN ROUND 3 +650
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  • Two flyweight ladies kick off the card tonight. Lee is up and down and had some bad luck during a 5-6 UFC run. Maverick looked to be a top prospect when she first entered the UFC in 2020, but she ran into some tough matchups with Erin Blanchfield & Maycee Barber early on...since them 2 L's she has gone 3-1 and shown significant improvement. She's still a wrestler first and needs to get this fight to the ground in order to dominate. Lee has proven both hard to take down and hard to hold down, so I think maybe this line is too big. I'll back "KGB" for the upset, and the fight easily goes over.
  • Woodburn gets another shot after being fed to Bo Nickal in his short-notice debut 7 months ago. He will fight at his normal weight of 170 as well. Woodburn has the power to finish this one fast, but I'll side with "The Welsh Gangster" to drag him into deep waters and drain "The Animal's" gas tank. I can see a 3rd round finish here.

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UFC 298: VOLKANOVSKI VS TOPURIA​

ESPN prelims:​

  • We should get a banger to open the ESPN prelims. Barlow has good power and unprecedented length at 170(80 inch reach). Quinlan won his first 6 fights(one in UFC) before losing his last fight to Trey Waters, another tall lengthy WW...so this looks Taylor-made for Barlow to keep "The Renegade" on the end of his stiff jab, control the distance and cruise. But Quinlan will force the issue and charge in without regard and may well run into a hard left on entry and that could be lights out.
  • Mingyang and Ribeiro will both be swinging for the fences early and often. Not sure if I've ever seen a 1½ round total juiced so high to the under, but it's not hard to see why. The Chinaman is riding a 9 fight win streak, all finishes, and has finished all of his 16 wins. His last 13 fights have not seen the 2nd round win or lose. Also, 15 of Ribeiro's 20 fights ended in round one, and he also sports a 100% finish rate in his 15 wins! Don't blink!
  • Rinya Nakamura is the real deal and should easily stay undefeated for at -1100 it's a tough bet.
  • Tafa will unload early and either get a finish or end up losing on the cards, as de Lima has better gas and can control the fight in several ways. He may however be a little gun shy after suffering the highlight KO loss to the "Black Beast" last time out. I thought I had seen where this fight was cancelled Thursday, but they both weighed in and have lines listed, so I suppose the Tafa injury wasn't crucial.
  • 1708210538135.pngDern keeps getting chance after chance, as it seems the UFC really want her to excel. She's only won twice in her last 5 and was dominated by Jessica Andrade in a 2nd round TKO loss just over 3 months ago. She was a somewhat late replacement, stepping in for the injured Tatiana Suarez on a month's notice. Not sure if she's completely past the Andrade loss, and I do think Lemos' power striking should be enough.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/WMMA/comments/1aspi7i/amanda_lemos_vs_mackenzie_dern_weighin_faceoff

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UFC 298: VOLKANOVSKI VS TOPURIA​


Early Prelims:​

❌2/3.60 ANDREA LEE +180
✅4/1.34 LEE / MAVERICK o2½ -298
❌2/1.63 OBAN ELLIOTT INSIDE DISTANCE -123
❌1/6.50 OBAN ELLIOTT IN ROUND 3 +650
[1-3 -3.64u]

ESPN Prelims:​

  • 2/1.08 DANNY BARLOW -185
  • 2/1.92 DANNY BARLOW INSIDE DISTANCE -104
  • 3/2.68 Mingyang Zhang -112
  • 1.58/3 Junior Tafa +190
  • 3/2.27 Amanda Lemos -132
Damn that fucking Woodburn is tough and how da fuck can you choke a guy with no neck :confused:

Don't know how I missed the Tafa replacement, no wonder odds were so high. I had already put a small play on Junior so just gonna let it ride even though I capped for Justin. -SMH

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UFC 298: VOLKANOVSKI VS TOPURIA​


Early Prelims:​

❌2/3.60 ANDREA LEE +180
✅4/1.34 LEE / MAVERICK o2½ -298
❌2/1.63 OBAN ELLIOTT INSIDE DISTANCE -123
❌1/6.50 OBAN ELLIOTT IN ROUND 3 +650
[1-3 -3.64u]

ESPN Prelims:​

✅2/1.08 DANNY BARLOW -185
✅2/1.92 DANNY BARLOW INSIDE DISTANCE -104
✅3/2.68 Mingyang Zhang -112
❌1.58/3 Junior Tafa +190

[4-4 +0.46U]

3/2.27 Amanda Lemos -132​


Main Card:​

  • 2.26/4 Roman Kopylov +177
  • 5/1.79 Merab Dvalishvili -280
  • 2.17/5 Geoff Neal +230
  • 2.68/2 NEAL /GARRY o2½ -134
  • 4.20/2 Robert Whittaker -210
  • 2/2.02 COSTA/ WHITTAKER DOESN'T GO THE 3 ROUND DISTANCE +101
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  • Main card starts with two high level strikers with very different approach. Hernandez is a scrappy boxer who like to push pace and make if a brawl. He has no problem to the ground and looking for a sub either. But Kopylov is very technical and will land lots of shots without doubt. "Fluffy" is super durable though, and we could see Roman empty his tank chasing the finish early. This fight is a real sleeper for FOTN...should be an awesome war!
  • Henry's a warrior with an elite resume, but I do believe it's Merab-time now. Dude looked huge and ripped at ceremonial weigh in. It may not be the prettiest fight, but I can't see Henry matching pace.
  • Fuck Ian Garry, let me just get that out the way; He's a piece of shit. First he married a WAG, then he goes after classy vets Neal & Magny for no good reason. After Strickland called his BS he has tried anything and everything to deflect the heat. I hope "Hand of Steel" can get an epic KO, but more likely Ian is going to avoid striking any more than he absolutely has to and probably get an insignificant decision. But still I'm on Neal and the over.
  • I think the Reaper is still a top MW and Costa is just outside that level. Whittaker has been in many wars and at some point it will catch up to him, but I think he'll be able to take over this fight by the 2nd round with his pace, durability and balanced game. I like Paulo, I just see this as a tough matchup for "Borrachinha". Robert by decision or late stoppage and an over.
 
UFC 298: VOLKANOVSKI VS TOPURIA

Early Prelims:
❌2/3.60 ANDREA LEE +180
✅4/1.34 LEE / MAVERICK o2½ -298
❌2/1.63 OBAN ELLIOTT INSIDE DISTANCE -123
❌1/6.50 OBAN ELLIOTT IN ROUND 3 +650

ESPN Prelims:
✅2/1.08 DANNY BARLOW -185
✅2/1.92 DANNY BARLOW INSIDE DISTANCE -104
✅3/2.68 Mingyang Zhang -112
❌1.58/3 Junior Tafa +190
✅3/2.27 Amanda Lemos -132

Main Card:
❌2.26/4 Roman Kopylov +177
✅5/1.79 Merab Dvalishvili -280
❌2.17/5 Geoff Neal +230
✅2.68/2 NEAL /GARRY o2½ -134
✅4.20/2 Robert Whittaker -210
❌2/2.02 COSTA/ WHITTAKER DOESN'T GO THE 3 ROUND DISTANCE +101
[8-7 +2.07u]


Managed another winning card narrowly.
 
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