288 ~ Triple CCC Returns

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 288
  • 2/2.68 JOSEPH HOLMES +134
  • 2/1.60 RIBEIRO vs HOLMES u1½ -125
  • 3/1.65 IKRAM ALISKEROV -182
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  • HOLMES(8-3) VS CLAUDIO RIBEIRO(10-3) 185 ...Riberiro is the more experience fighter and has a huge advantage in power, but if Holmes can secure the takedown he'll be at the advantage on the mat. Holmes has finished all 8 of his wins to date. Holme has had 2 UFC fights to only 1 for Ribeiro and is catch a big number, so I'll roll with the dog.
  • ALISKEROV(13-1) VS HAWES(12-4) 185 ...Phil Hawes has huge physique and mad power, but has struggle lately getting KO's in 2 of his last 3 fights. I like Phil's style, but this Russian Ikram Aliskerov appears the real deal and this may be his coming out party. Hate laying -200 in a UFC debut but this gut is a takedown matching and although very hittable, he has proven super durable through the DWCS,
 
Overall it's a nice card top to bottom with 2 really top notch 5 rounder at the top of the card

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I've had a miserable year so far, but I'll own it and fwiw I did manage a small profit last week.

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Only 3 early prelims today, here's the last one

[2-1 +1.25u]
  • 1.82/5 BRAXTON SMITH IN ROUND 1 +275
  • 1.89/1 SMITH vs PORTER u1½ -189
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  • Braxton Smith(5-1) vs Parker Porter(13-8) ...Porter 3-3 in UFC welcome Smith to hi UFC debut. Smith is making a huge step-up in competition, but he may have the game to take Porter out early as he won his last 5, all by 1st rough KO. If he can't get the finish in first or early 2nd, Parker likely grounds him out since Smith has shown no meaningful gas tank to date.
 
[3-2 +0.43u]
  • 2/1.80 Marina Rodriguez -111
  • 5/2.15 JANDIROBA vs RODRIGUEZ) o2½ -233
  • 1/1.70 KHAOS WILLIAMS IN ROUND 1 +170
  • 3/2.50 BEDOYA vs KHAOS WILLIAMS u1½ -120
  • 3.48/2 Kennedy Nzechukwu -174
  • 5/8.95 MATT FREVOLA +179

ESPN Prelims:
  • Marina Rodriguez(16-2-2) vs Virna Jandiroba(18-3) 115 ...Marina is an excellent Muay Thai striker and was dominating the division until stopped by Amanda Lemos last year. She also has a 65% TDD. Virna would like to get her down and work her sub chops. Since Rodrigues has never been subbed and Jandiroba has never been finished< I live over 2½ even around -230 with a small play on Marina
  • Khaos Williams(11-3) vs Rolando Bedoya(14-1) 170 ...Khaos has been around and has plenty of sand plus power to sleep this non-deserving newcomer. This dude's 14-1 record is mostly meaning less as he's won 7 of last 10 by decision over guys who will never sniff the bigtime. Only reason he got the fight is he trains with Charles Olivera who was scheduled to be on this card. Still a lot of unknowns since Williams hasn't really been tested in his grappling. If he gets the finish, I think it's got to be an early finish with strikes.
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu (11-3) vs. Devin Clark (14-7) 205 ...Nzechukwu boasts 80% TDD and Clark hasn't done much when he can't get his wrestling going. Kennedy only lands 44% of his strikes but he throws so many he still lands over 4½ per minute. Clark has both poor striking defense as well as TDD, where Kennedy may flash his wrestling with late round takedowns to garner points.
  • Drew Dober (26-11) vs. Matt Frevola (10-3-1) 155 ...Not really A Dober fan, as I believe "The Smeamrolla" may be one of the livest dogs on the card. Frevola has two straight KO wins and is the superior wrestler. I believe he's better than Drew in both area, which is why I like this spot quite a bit.
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I heard a stat that fighters over 35 in title fights are something like 2-28 last 30. Is that possible?
 
Inspekdah said:
I heard a stat that fighters over 35 in title fights are something like 2-28 last 30. Is that possible?
Click to expand...
Not sure but according to Bard:
"As of March 8, 2023, there have been 22 UFC championship fights involving fighters over the age of 35. The fighters in these bouts have a combined record of 10-12. The most successful fighter over the age of 35 in UFC championship fights is Georges St-Pierre, who is 2-0 in these bouts. Other notable fighters over the age of 35 who have competed in UFC championship fights include Randy Couture, Vitor Belfort, and Daniel Cormier."
 
Inspekdah said:
I heard a stat that fighters over 35 in title fights are something like 2-28 last 30. Is that possible?
Click to expand...
Cejudo is unique

He's 5'4" and has virtually no miles when you look at his "challengers"

Guy might as well be 25
 
next up
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then, onto the...

UFC 288 ~ Main Card​

  • Charles Jourdain (13-6-1) vs. Kron Gracie (5-1) 145 ...Gracie's a tough sell, since dude has 6 fights in almost 9 years and he's a true specialist with limited stand-up. But then again, it's been almost 4 years since his last fight so who knows what he's been working on. I really don't see how Charles is so highly regarded after winning only 3 of his last 8 fights going back 3 years, but he does at least fight a lot, and he throws a lot but doesn't really carry KO power. Charles should be favored but not -170 as it has already dropped from -200...I like sneaky pick of late sub for Kron
  • Movsar Evloev (16-0) vs. Diego Lopes (21-5) 145 ...Lopes steps into the fire on short notice and the kid may have potential, problem is he steps in vs a complete package in Evloev. Since the Russian has all his UFC wins by dominant decision, this may prove an opp for a highlight finish to help propel him toward a potential title shot vs Volk.
  • Jessica Andrade (24-10) vs. Yan Xiaonan (16-3) 115 ...This is a tough call, with Yan's technical striking but lack of real power to keep Jessica from walking her down. In her last 4 fights, Andrade has averaged over 57 significant strikes landed per round! Versus someone without huge power I would expect Jessica will continue pushing the pace and firing big shots, an early finish longshot play may be a decent chance as well.

162710.jpg
 
Nice to hit POD, maybe should have took Frevolla ITD but Dober generally super durable, but they were banging. Here's the finish https://dubz.co/c/d06735

[6-5 +7.53u]
  • 1.39/2 KRON GRACIE +144
  • 1/10.0 Kron Gracie in Round 2 by Submission +1000
  • 1/12.0 KRON GRACIE IN ROUND 3 +1200
  • 3/2.80 EVLOEV vs LOPES u2½ -107
  • 2/3.00 JESSICA ANDRADE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +150
  • 1.20/9 Jessica Andrade in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ

162720.jpg
 

UFC 288 Top of the Card​

  • Co-main Event:Gilbert Burns (22-5) vs. Belal Muhammad (22-3) 170 ...Amazingly I would consider this the fight of the night except both fighters may not be at full strength with Burns having just cut weight and fought a mere 4 weeks ago and went to decision although he took very little damage. Belal just went through Ramadan where even though he trained he was limited in his nourishment. Both took the fight on 2 weeks' notice so we will be on equal footing at least there. Both are very well-rounded top-notch fighters, whith possibly the biggest weakness being Burns' TDD at only 47%...but do you really want to roll with a world class Jujitsu opponent such as Burns. Belal has been training with Khabib for quite awhile now and that can't hurt. Some rumblings about potential ankle injury Belal is dealing with is unsubstantiated and likely wont factor in the fight. I see a 5 round war as although both guys have been finished it's very rare, once for Belal and twice for Burns in there almost equally long 11 year careers. I mostly favor the over but I will also hit the Burns side a little.
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  • Main Event: (C) Aljamain Sterling (22-3) vs Henry Cejudo (16-2) 135 Bantamweight Championship ...There's lots of reasons to back Sterling, what with 7 inches reach advantage and overall size discrepancies. He has dominated his fights on the ground recently and is a Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt. Henry's really a flyweight that thickened up a bit, but he has power, solid wrestling and may the best fight IQ this side of Jones...hell he was even training Jones some, before his last fight. The champ has better striking numbers with an SSR of 2.52 to only 1.15 for Henry...however Henry throws much harder. This likely goes deep if Algo don't catch some wild sub early as both are very tough and will give it there all. More hunch than facts, but I got Cejudo by decision or maybe late ground-n-pound.
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Last 2,,,
  • 5/3.94 MUHAMMAD vs BURNS o4½ -127
  • 2/1.36 GILBERT BURNS -147
  • 3.27/3 HENRY CEJUDO -109
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Canelo looked older than all of us combined. He would get beaten by a middleweight with youth and any sort of talent.

Think this is his swan song, two knockdowns were basically worthless when you can't pounce. He can't pounce.
 
HUNT said:
Burns took the fight on short notice and basically fought with 1 arm. Needs a long break.
Click to expand...
This is something I wonder. We always see purses and fight bonuses blah blah

But these guys under contract with UFC, I wonder what their pay is outside of performance stuff.
 
KJ said:
This is something I wonder. We always see purses and fight bonuses blah blah

But these guys under contract with UFC, I wonder what their pay is outside of performance stuff.
Click to expand...

they get paid with the teams they are part of and sponsors...not too sure what else, can't be much.
 
HUNT said:
they get paid with the teams they are part of and sponsors...not too sure what else, can't be much.
Click to expand...
When they train for months and an injury happens to either party, if they're under contract you can't convince me that they aren't still getting good wood

I get the sponsors deal but Dana gotta be shelling out even if they don't get to fight if they're under contract as he should
 
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