285 ~ The GOAT Returns!

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Bones Jones big return has finally arrived and I'm stoked. The whole card has some big stars although some of the fights line up as mismatches.

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I'm still trying to get untracked in 2023

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Early Prelims:​


Loik Radzhabov vs Esteban Ribovics (11-0)
  • Ribovics will bring pace and accuracy and has a decent chance for the finish
Farid Basharat (9-0) vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
  • More polished striker but little value here on side, taking the over
Jessica Penne vs Tabatha Ricci (7-1)
  • Ricci has the wrestling chops to control the fight.
Mana Martinez vs Cameron Saaiman (7-0)
  • Saaiman(22) has yet to taste defeat finishing 6 of 7 pro fights including his UFC debut and a DWCS match. 2nd the youngest fighter in UFC. Has quality kickboxing and will be better served to keep it standing.
Ian Machado Garry (10-0) vs Kenan Song
  • Garry should dominate but at these odds, it's hard to get behind "The Future"

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Early Action:
  • 1/1.78 ESTEBAN RIBOVICS +178
  • 1/3.35 Ribovics Wins Inside Distance +335
  • 3/1.84 DAMON BLACKSHEAR vs FARID BASHARAT o2½ -163
  • 2/1.38 Tabatha Ricci by Points -145
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ESPN Prelims​


Julian Marquez vs Marc-André Barriault
  • "The Cuban Missile Crisis" ...love the nickname from the awkward clunky Marquez. Barriault has a much deeper gas tank and will push the pace. He's hard to take down and likeLY scoreS decision
Viviane Araujo (11-4) vs Amanda Ribas (10-3)
  • I've always liked Ribas but she's shown a decline of late going 1-2 in the last 3. "Vivi" is also 1-2 in L3 but has faced tougher foes, she brings more power and is physically more imposing.
Derek Brunson vs Dricus Du Plessis (18-2)
  • Brunson has shown his age at times, but I think the experience should help him tonight, and along with takedowns and power strikes he should pull the upset and possibly even gets the finish. DuPlessis' chin is unproven at best.
Cody Garbrandt vs Trevin Jones
  • Cody's chin is shot, you don't get that back afaik. The UFC is trying to set him up for a win though it appears, feeding him the "can" in 13-9 Jones. Jones is still dangerous and this may be Cody's swan song...but I'll back him to live on...for at least one more, probably by KO

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[3-3 +0.2u]
  • 2/1.28 MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT -156
  • 1/2.35 MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT DEC/TECH DEC +235
  • 2/1.96 VIVIANE ARAUJO -102
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Amanda wow, she got after it while Vivi appeared lackadaisical

[4-5 -1.52u]
  • 1.62/3 Derek Brunson +185
  • 1/5.50 Brunson Wins Inside Distance +550
  • 2/2.50 Garbrandt Wins Inside Distance +125

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UFC 285 ~ Main Card​


Jamie Pickett vs Bo Nickal
  • Not sure I can remember a 13-8 fighter on the Main card of a numbered event, but this is obviously set up to showcase Bo. Pickett has fought a few tough guys but never beat any of them. As long as Bo doesn't try too much to showcase striking, this will be short and sweet--SUB Rnd 1
Mateusz Gamrot (21-2) vs Jalin Turner
  • Gamrot is the real deal, very well-rounded, and will have a significant advantage on the mat. The only pause is he took it on short notice. Jalin has length and good striking ability, he may well land some good shots but I still see the Pole plodding right through them, taking the fight to the ground and finishing it inside 2 rounds.
Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0)
  • Well-rounded best described "Nomad" who has finished all of his pro fights(8 SUBS / 8 KO's). Dude has finished his first 4 UFC bouts including Magny and Allex Olivera. There are only 3 or 4 fighters ever to finish their 1st four UFC fight...he's in the exclusive company..Jones, Rousey, etc... Neal is solid and a game fighter, the real red flag missing weight by 5 pounds. The "Nomad" ITD
Valentina Shevchenko (23-3) vs. Alexa Grasso (15-3)
  • Valentina may be the best female fighter ever, and should easily defeat Grasso using her grappling advantage to lead to some GnP and probably a SUB finish. After her last fight, she will be more motivated to show out flamboyantly. Shev will be dancing inside 3.
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[4-8 -6.14u]
  • 6/2.67 BO NICKAL IN ROUND 1 -225
  • 1/3.50 BO NICKAL IN ROUND 2 +350
  • 3/3.90 MATEUSZ GAMROT KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +130
 
[5-10 -7.47u]
  • 3/1.50 SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -200
  • 1.08/2 SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV IN ROUND 1 +185
  • 1/3.25 SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV IN ROUND 2 +325
  • 5/1.00 SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV -500
  • 4/2.76 Shevchenko Wins Inside Distance -145
  • 2/1.68 ALEXA GRASSO vs VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO u4½ -119
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Didn't see that coming, looks like another losing night :/

[7-14 -13.05u

5/2.94 Jon Jones -170
Jon Jones (26-1) vs. Ciryl Gane (11-1)
  • So we have the best female fighter ever and the best male fighter ever on the same card. Jones comes back after a 3-year layoff and 42 lbs heavier vs the new proto-typical heavyweight. On paper, this looks like it could be a tough fight for Jon, but don't believe it. Once he gets Gane to the ground, he won't get up and probably doesn't get out of the round. I see a Jones finish with elbows on the ground.
 
Another losing night although not as bad as I thought as I mis-graded Grasso under,

UFC 285 3/4/23
❌1/1.78 ESTEBAN RIBOVICS +178
❌1/3.35 Ribovics Wins Inside Distance +335
✅3/1.84 DAMON BLACKSHEAR vs FARID BASHARAT o2½ -163
❌2/1.38 Tabatha Ricci by Points -145
✅3/1.11 CAMERON SAAIMAN -271
✅3/1.25 Garry Wins Inside Distance -240
✅2/1.28 MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT -156
❌1/2.35 MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT DEC/TECH DEC +235
❌2/1.96 VIVIANE ARAUJO -102
❌1.62/3 Derek Brunson +185
❌1/5.50 Brunson Wins Inside Distance +550
❌2/2.50 Garbrandt Wins Inside Distance +125
✅6/2.67 BO NICKAL IN ROUND 1 -225
❌1/3.50 BO NICKAL IN ROUND 2 +350
❌3/3.90 MATEUSZ GAMROT KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +130
✅3/1.50 SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -200
❌1.08/2 SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV IN ROUND 1 +185
❌1/3.25 SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV IN ROUND 2 +325
✅5/1.00 SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV -500
❌4/2.76 Shevchenko Wins Inside Distance -145
✅2/1.68 GRASSO vs SHEVCHENKO u4½ -119
✅5/2.94 Jon Jones -170
[9-13 -6.43u

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