274
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 274: Early Prelims
- Newson Decision ...As the far superior technical fighter, I’ll lean with Newson, but his durability issues will always be a red flag. Garcia could well drag Newson into a stand’n’bang brawl that may crack Journey’s chin. Who knows, who cares with this caliber of a fight. Me...cause I'll have action on it. lol
- Godinez Decision ...Carnelossi’s pressure tactics and desire for a brawl may lead to her demise in this fight. Plowing forward will create more opportunities for Godinez to shoot for a takedown. Carnelossi’s build represents a far more favorable match-up for Godinez, considering Ariane’s slight frame for the division. If Carnelossi can keep the fight standing, her punches tend to break opponents down.
- Rodrigues ...Rodrigues is a plus athlete with power in his hands and a decently strong wrestling base. Importantly against Vergara, Rodrigues can neutralize his opponent’s offense on the feet through straight shots and low kicks. Vergara is a tough, game fighter, but likely struggles to handle Rodrigues’ well-rounded skillset.
- Gatto Decision ...Tough call here. Cortez should be favored after Gatto’s TDD troubles against Eubanks. Cortez is a far more dangerous ground’n’pounder and is primed to punish Gatto’s lackadaisical approach to playing off her back. Gatto’s big power for the division and vicious submission arsenal has me leaning that way, though.
- Fialho KO ...Just a month after his 1st-round pasting of Miguel Baeza, Fialho has been offered a fairly kind ‘keep busy’ fight. VanCamp is a risk-taker on the feet, which suggests a quick nap for the American, but his grappling control may well prove a nuisance tonight. A bit of a nothing fight for Fialho if VanCamp can’t get this to the mat, as expected.
- Ivanov ITD ...Rogerio de Lima is heavy-handed, even by HW standards. Unfortunately for him, Ivanov has never looked close to being finished. De Lima can wrestle relatively well, however, Ivanov’s TDD matches the Brazilian’s. When you consider that Ivanov’s gas tank far exceeds De Lima’s, it would require Marcos to find the punch of a lifetime.
Lupita Godinez from 2009...not too bad
King Slap
CTG Honorary Super Moderator
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 274: ESPN Prelims
BRANDON ROYVAL(13-6) VS MATT SCHNELL(15-6) ~ Flyweight (125)
- Royval Sub ...Pace is most likely to be the killer of Matt Schnell. , Schnell is the more consistent grappler on the mat and could bank rounds off top control while Royval relentlessly pursues submissions rather than returning to his feet. More likely, Royval’s wildly reckless approach will drag Schnell into fast-paced scrambles and striking exchanges which will eventually crack Schnell’s questionable chin.
MACY CHIASSON(7-2) VS NORMA DUMONT(7-1) ~ Women’s Featherweight (145)
- Dumont Decision ...Chiasson’s preference for fighting on the inside finally bit her on the arse when she met a scrappier, more experienced brawler in Raquel Pennington. Against Dumont, a solid counter-puncher in the pocket, Chiasson will be walking into the Brazilian’s strongest weapons. Sure, Chiasson could bully Dumont against the cage for three rounds, but Dumont’s boxing is more proven against higher-quality competition.
- Roberts ...The crafty Brazilian veteran operates an ultra-conservative approach that protects his 43yr old gas tank but damn does it work. Out of Southpaw, Trinaldo wafts his lead hand in front of an opponent’s face and conjures the illusion of activity for the scorecards. There is also the case of Danny Roberts’ string of knockout losses. In fairness, Roberts’ chin isn’t the issue, it’s the Bristolian’s inability to read incoming damage and in the process getting hurt unaware. In a low-paced kickboxing affair, however, I just about favor Roberts to make it through a dicey affair.
- Brown and OVER ...Williams’ low kicks will continue to frustrate Brown throughout the night, yet Khaos will be punching up to the taller man throughout the night. Brown’s footwork isn’t notable, but he fights tall and will create a puzzle for Williams’ to crack if he headhunts for the fifteen minutes. Brown has made poor decisions in the past, but his strong clinch game should neutralize William’s whenever he gets inside.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 274: Main Card (rest of)
OVINCE ST. PREUX(25-16) VS SHOGUN RUA(27-12-1) ~ Light Heavyweight (205)- OSP KO ...Neither man eats punches well, neither can last more than a couple of rounds, and neither has a meaningful future continuing to fight. OSP at least has been active, with a handful of his recent losses stemming from a failed move up to Heavyweight. Shogun appears to have fallen off the athletic cliff harder than OSP, with jabs forcing the former PRIDE star into a drunken tizzy.
- Chandler Decision ...It breaks my heart, but Chandler carries the power to put Ferguson to sleep early. A strange call considering Ferguson’s notorious durability, but the former interim title contender has looked well behind the pace in his past three losses. As opposed to thriving in the brawls that Ferguson would create by inviting pressure, El Cucuy worryingly responds to eating punishment these days. Chandler’s conditioning issues are a worry, especially considering he has forgone the old grinding wrestling that benefited him so well in Bellator. Still, Ferguson seemingly lacks the resistance to stop Chandler handily claiming the rounds.
Hate to see Cowboy & Joe canceled, the first fight on the main will be a banger, was actually surprised they had it scheduled on the ESPN card.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
He's damn near a -300 favorite
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
I was gonna take OSP by KO or ITD so no biggie
Dont like Chandler, and I made lots on Tony over the years. I picked Chandler but at these odd it's just a flyer/hunch that Tony may have something left in the tank
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 274: Co-Main Event - UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship
ROSE NAMAJUNAS(11-4) VS CARLA ESPARZA(18-6) ~ Women’s Strawweight (115)- Namajunas ...Namajunas rightly deserves to be considered the heavy fav, but there were signs in the Weili Zhang rematch that suggest Esparza is more than a live dog in this rematch. Namajunas hit the mat five times against Zhang. If Esparza can take Thug Rose to the ground a similar number of times, her vastly superior ground control than Zhang could punish the champion. Unfortunately for the Cookie Monster, Rose’s advantages in this match-up are numerous. Physical and technical advantages aside, Namajunas’s pinpoint accuracy is designed to poke holes in Esparza’s limited straight-lined offense. Esparza’s questionable gas tank is another red flag in comparison to Namajunas, who has regularly reached the scorecards in five-round fights.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 274: Main Event - UFC Lightweight Championship*
CHARLES OLIVEIRA(32-8) VS JUSTIN GAETHJE(23-3) ~ Lightweight (155)- Oliveira ITD / likely Sub ...Do Bronx may have secured emphatic finishes over Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler during his title reign, but it hasn’t been without struggle. Oliveira was nearly knocked out in the opening round by both men. Against an equally powerful puncher in Gaethje, the odds of Oliveira touching the canvas have to be high. Add in Gaethje’s tree chopping leg kicks, and the American owns a weapon that could slow Oliveira’s preference for high-octane, explosive striking. One worry with Gaethje was the ease with which Chandler coaxed "The Highlight" back into his old ‘high guard, head down’ pocket fighting. If Oliveira can flip that switch in Gaethje, the Brazilian is a brutal body puncher which has long been a soft spot in Gaethje’s armor. Also, Oliveira’s exceptional clinch work and grappling will find more avenues if he can force Gaethje to shell up. Don’t write out a Gaethje uppercut off a risky, blind Oliveira takedown, though! Justin will need the KO, where Olivera can win several different ways. Missing weight I don't see as a problem, since if Charles wins...he will fight next for the vacated belt and never really lose it. A half-pound is very minimal and will be quickly forgotten if he's successful tonight.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Main Card Recap
Losing night for me, but Charles helped me finish strong and keep my losses minimal.
- Lightweight Title: Charles Oliveira defeats Justin Gaethje via submission (rear-naked choke) at 3:22 of the first round (Oliveira proved dominant)
- Women's Strawweight Title: Carla Esparza defeats Rose Namajunas via split decision (49-46, 48-47, 47-48) (borefest)
- Lightweight: Michael Chandler defeats Tony Ferguson via KO at 0:17 seconds of the second round(KO of the year, but Tony looked good before getting caught)
- Light Heavyweight: Ovince Saint Preux defeats Mauricio Rua via split decision (30-27, 29-28, 28-29) (Surprising that it went the distance with these two old war-horses)
- Welterweight: Randy Brown defeats Khaos Williams via split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29) (Back-and-forth banger)
Losing night for me, but Charles helped me finish strong and keep my losses minimal.
