271

[mrpickem]

Good card tonight with 3 great 5 fights and a few others very good

UFC 271: Early Prelims

• Wells by Sub ...Mike Mathetha is a kickboxing convert to MMA, whether his basic grappling and TDD is enough to survive in the UFC is yet to be seen. Diamond uses his length exceptionally well to post and stop an opponent’s advance in its track, but Wells’ underrated top control will be the difference in this affair. With enough early pressure and a bit of luck to avoid anything significant, Wells can bundle Mathetha to the mat and punish his inexperienced foe.
• Morozov ...Age is creeping up on the Brazilian, but he still remains a surprisingly explosive threat with measured combinations. Unless de Andrade is pushed back or forced to fight at an uncomfortable pace, the Brazilian is capable of out-striking and out-weathering opponents. Unfortunately for de Andrade, Morozov’s main game plan is to time takedowns and grind out time on the mat through superior control. Based on activity and conditioning in a young man’s division, Morozov has to be ever so slightly favored but razor-thin selection.
• Malkoun Decision ...AJ Dobson is a freakishly powerful unit, with the ferociously violent early striking that Malkoun wilted to in his UFC debut against Phil Hawes. After Malkoun’s sweltering wrestling display against Alhassan, however, I am favoring the Kiwi to just about escape the first round and grind out an exceptionally scrappy decision. A coin-flip fight at its very ugly best
• Ulberg KO ...With a massive 6’4″ frame, Ulberg patiently operates off the back foot and catches opponents lunging. A leaky striking defence and awkward gas tank were exposed by Nzechukwu, but there is a lot of time left for Ulberg to pick up the necessary experience. Cherant is a solid sub threat who could overwhelm a tame Ulberg out of the first round, but I wouldn’t count on it – Cherant seemed worryingly lacking in confidence against William Knight.
• Hernandez ITD ...A certified banger tucked away in the Prelims, there is a lot of bad blood between these two. While both men are threats on the mat, Hernandez’s punishing ground and pound vs Moicano’s submission arsenal, I cannot see this fight taking place anywhere else than standing in the center of the octagon. Alexander Hernandez is a ferocious finisher, and although Moicano is a far more polished technician, the cracks in the chin are too prime an opportunity for Hernandez to miss. Unfortunately, this is a case of Moicano declining hard than Hernandez representing the superior talent.

 

[mrpickem]

• 4/2.67 JEREMIAH WELLS KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
• 2/1.90 JACOB MALKOUN -105
• 1.44/2 JACOB MALKOUN vs AJ DOBSON o2½ +139
• 2.02/1 SERGEY MOROZOV -202
  
  

 

[mrpickem]

• 3/1.17 CARLOS ULBERG -257
• 3/1.88 CARLOS ULBERG INSIDE DISTANCE -160
• 1.55/2 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ +129
• 1/2.40 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ INSIDE DISTANCE +240

 

[mrpickem]

no bet but thoughts

Lawrence ...A very tough fight to call, with Lawrence being backed perhaps for his entertaining style if anything. Fleet-footed on the outside, Lawrence neglects any boxing in place of kicks and spinning back-fists when opponents try to engage. Martinez doggedly keeps opponents pinned to the cage, yet ebbs between periods of inactivity into 15-shot bursts onto shelled opponents. Against Lawrence, Martinez could offer enough time for the Nashville fighter to slide away and avoid extended combinations.

 

[mrpickem]

They changed the schedule around, so here's the rest of the ESPN Card; Middle Prelims:

ROXANNE MODAFFERI (25-19) VS CASEY O’NEILL (8-0)
Women’s Flyweight (125)​

• O’Neill Decision ...If Casey O’Neill cannot overwhelm Modafferi to the mat, the vet may counter the Scotswoman for fun all night long. Modafferi is a handy striker and could replicate a similar humbling as that of Maycee Barber. O’Neill owns a wonderful chin, plus-athleticism, and relentless pressure, but it is Modafferi’s lessened athleticism and lack of pop that will prove the difference. O’Neill is a menace from top control and should eventually prove too much to handle by the latter rounds.

ANDREI ARLOVSKI (32-20) VS JARED VANDERAA (12-6)
Heavyweight (265)​

• Arlovski ...Arlovski’s chin has gone full circle and returned to the near-career best health, in part owing to a consistent tweaking to his style which accounts for age and lesser physicality. Arlovski can keep himself standing against almost any HW, while his patient counter-punching out-works the bottom of the barrel prospects. Vanderaa’s heavy stature could pose a problem for Arlovski’s ancient bones, perhaps utilizing the cage to drag out a vile decision, but don’t bank on it. The "Pit Bull" likely by way of the scorecards.

 

[KJ]

Holy smokes those are some serious Asian rolls

 

[mrpickem]

[4-2 +2.72u]
✔ 4/2.67 JEREMIAH WELLS KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
2.02/1 SERGEY MOROZOV -202
✔ 2/1.90 JACOB MALKOUN -105
✔ 1.44/2 JACOB MALKOUN vs AJ DOBSON o2½ +139
✔ 3/1.17 CARLOS ULBERG -257
3/1.88 CARLOS ULBERG INSIDE DISTANCE -160
pending
1.55/2 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ +129
1/2.40 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ INSIDE DISTANCE +240

adding

• 2/1.67 CASEY ONEILL BY 3 RD DECISION -120
• 3/1.49 ROXANNE MODAFFERI vs CASEY ONEILL o2½ -202
• 1.50/1 ANDREI ARLOVSKI -150
• 1/1.25 ANDREI ARLOVSKI DEC/TECH DEC +125

SNEK

 

[KJ]

I do not think O'Neill won that fight at all

Judge check time

 

[skanless13]

I do not think O'Neill won that fight at all

Judge check time

It was certainly questionable.

 

[KJ]

Lolz thank God I had no dog in that hunt

She lost that fight

 

[skanless13]

Just rewatched it. Casey did more on the feet. Landed more, picked her apart from the outside. Roxy had some moments, but the fight was controlled by Casey.

 

[mrpickem]

They've changed the schedule on several fights, Phillips's fight was supposed to be on the Main card but it's gone and I missed it. But there are still some excellent fights remaining.

UFC 271 Main Card: (Plus this Hernandez fight moved from prelims)

NASRAT HAQPARAST (13-4) VS BOBBY GREEN (28-12-1)
Lightweight (155)​

• Green Decision ...There hasn’t seemed to be much changed in Nasrat Haqparast’s game since the crushing Drew Dober loss back in 2020. If Haqparast allows Green the space and time to set up traps, his powerful left hand isn’t going to prove potent enough to win rounds. Granted, Green’s frustrating taunting and inactivity see him drop rounds, but if Green is to keep this fight standing as expected – Haqparast’s athletic edge will struggle to touch Green’s wily countering.

JARED CANNONIER (14-5) VS DEREK BRUNSON (23-7)
Middleweight (185)​

• Cannonier Round 1 ...The safest call would be for Blonde Brunson to grind this one out on the mat. Brunson’s refined striking has masked his awful habit of delivering a naked chin towards the ceiling, while Cannonier’s improved TDD has stemmed largely from his physical edge at Mw. Still, Cannonier’s nuclear hands are too difficult to overlook. As seen against Whittaker, Cannonier carries his power late and can flip the script of a fight with one punch. Darren Till wobbled Brunson briefly despite being overwhelmed prior. If Cannonier landed the same shot, it’s lights out.

Main & Co-main come later, but spoiler...The Beast is the POD

 

[mrpickem]

[8-2 +8.13u]

✔ 4/2.67 JEREMIAH WELLS KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
2.02/1 SERGEY MOROZOV -202
✔ 2/1.90 JACOB MALKOUN -105
✔ 1.44/2 JACOB MALKOUN vs AJ DOBSON o2½ +139
✔ 3/1.17 CARLOS ULBERG -257
3/1.88 CARLOS ULBERG INSIDE DISTANCE -160
✔ 2/1.67 CASEY ONEILL BY 3 RD DECISION -120
✔ 3/1.49 ROXANNE MODAFFERI vs CASEY ONEILL o2½ -202
✔ 1.50/1 ANDREI ARLOVSKI -150
✔ 1/1.25 ANDREI ARLOVSKI DEC/TECH DEC +125

pending
1.55/2 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ +129
1/2.40 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ INSIDE DISTANCE +240
adding

• 2/1.40 BOBBY GREEN -143
• 1.54/2 BOBBY GREEN BY 3 RD DECISION
• 5/3.47 JARED CANNONIER -144
• 3/3.30 JARED CANNONIER INSIDE DISTANCE +110

 

[mrpickem]

Co-Main Event
DERRICK LEWIS (26-8) VS TAI TUIVASA (14-3)
Heavyweight (265)​

Lewis KO ...As seen against Hardy, Tuivasa can eat heavy leather, yet rather than shell-up or reset, Bam Bam instead immediately hops into counter-punching. In a 50/50 trade on the feet, Lewis’ power will reign supreme, but Tuivasa isn’t particularly known as a fighter who is slept from one punch. Lewis may own a phenomenal chin, but Tuivasa will find ample space and time to unleash his mean leg kicks. While the Black Beast has to be favored, Tai’s finishing sequence against Augusto Sakai evidenced a newfound fluidity and technical edge to the once pure slugging of Bam Bam. Should be great while it lasts, but the Beast's power will reign supreme tonight.

 

[mrpickem]

[12-4 +15.75u]

• 3/1.68 DERRICK LEWIS -179
• 1.33/2 DERRICK LEWIS IN ROUND 1 +150
• 1/4.00 DERRICK LEWIS IN ROUND 2 +400
• 2/1.38 DERRICK LEWIS INSIDE DISTANCE -145

Brutal KO by Killa Gorrilla

 

[mrpickem]

Wow, love Tai but that 'bo didn't look like enough to slay a beast??

Oh well...moving on

• 2/5.38 ROBERT WHITTAKER +269

 

[mrpickem]

Main Event
ISRAEL ADESANYA (21-1) VS ROBERT WHITTAKER (23-5)
Middleweight (185) ~ UFC Middleweight Championship​

• Adesanya Decision ...Rob hasn’t evidenced the necessary defensive improvements, since their first meeting, to handle Adesanya’s kicks. Whittaker’s bouncing movement can often mesmerize opponents, yet the champ’s lethal low kicks will once again pepper the Aussie from range. That isn’t to say that Whittaker can’t deploy a more coherent, layered front-foot gameplan. The Reaper frustrated Izzy in their first match with a couple of oblique kicks, yet made little effort to mask it outside of the first minute. Rather than head-hunting an impossible target again, Whittaker can make good of the speed differential in the pocket, and target Adesanya’s well-extended lead leg. Also, it seems strange to have already written off Whittaker wrestling threat. Blachowicz may be a naturally larger man, yet Vettori isn’t, and the Italian was able to rack up seven minutes of control time on the mat. Whether Whittaker can tie Adesanya to the mat may not be important, rather, the transitional delay and threat alone could be enough to deny Adesanya the time/space to make his necessary reads or set up traps. This one may go the Reaper's way, but I'll have to back the champ based on history. Well wtf, I jumped ship as the line kept climbing. At -310 there is no way I can back Izzy as I give "Bobby Knuckles" a decent shot. LFG!!

 

[mrpickem]

Finished the night with 5 straight losses over the last 2 fights, but still a winning night. :teethgrill: