270

[mrpickem]

Great couple fights, but majority of card is only so-so...



Solid start to the year last week.

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 270: Prelims​

Jasmine Jasudavicius (6-1) vs Kay Hansen (7-4)
Women’s Flyweight (125)​

Hansen Decision …Moving up to FW after a decision loss to Cory McKenna last time out, Kay Hansen is still a fine prospect at 22yrs old. Jasudavicius has to bank on snapping onto a body lock and controlling the pace of each round. While the Canadian is a willing striker, she lacks fluidity and Hansen has proven herself capable of sticking and moving during periods of fights. Based on Hansen’s sharper hands and ability to actually slip the odd punch, Hansen should be able to overcome the physical gap.

​

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Matt Frevola (8-3-1) vs Genaro Valdez (10-0)
Lightweight (155)​

Frevola …Undefeated Mexican, Genaro Valdez, is a finisher that will be banking on securing an early flash KO. Over 15 minutes, Valdez is far too aggressive and counter-able vs a technically superior fighter as Matt Frevola. Valdez will be unlikely to overwhelm Frevola with his wrestling in a similar manner as the cans he fought on the regional scene.

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Tony Gravely (21-7) vs Saimon Oliveira (18-3)
Bantamweight (135)​

Gravely …Tony Gravely should have the experience to identify the glaring holes in Oliveira’s game and grind out a decision victory. The DWCS prospect is a frenetic striker, pouring everything into explosive single-shots behind constant momentum. When Gravely fell in love with his hands vs Nate Maness, he paid the price in the 2nd round. Oliveira is a far sloppier striker, however, and will walk himself into hard counters.

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Jack Della Maddalena (10-2) vs Pete Rodriguez (4-0)
Welterweight (170)​

Maddalena KO Round 1…This isn’t a simple squash match if you were just spying the 4-0 record. Rodriguez racked up a 7-2 record in the amateurs too before transitioning to the professional ranks. Even then, Rodriguez will be up against it as he has never faced an elite athlete comparable to Maddalena. Maddalena is a wonderful pressing pocket puncher who loves to bite down and trade power and behind his stout chin. Expect Twitter to blow up after this one.

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Raoni Barcelos (16-2) vs Victor Henry (21-5)
Bantamweight (135)​

Barcelos KO …There is certainly a need for fighters of Henry’s quality. It was only a couple of years ago that Henry beat Kyler Phillips. Unfortunately, for some strange reason, Raoni Barcelos has been held back as the man tasked to introduce Henry to the UFC. Henry is well-rounded and his activity in the clinch could cause Barcelos some problems. Most likely, however, Henry’s tendency to kick on the inside will see Barcelos unload his dynamite power.

 

[mrpickem]

Prelims:

• 3.34/2 KAY HANSEN -167
• 3/3.00 KAY HANSEN DEC/TECH DEC +100
• 3/1.63 MATT FREVOLA -184
• 4/1.71 TONY GRAVELY -234
• 1.59/2 MATT FREVOLA vs GENARO VALDEZ OVER 2½ +126
• 1.33/2 JACK DELLA MADDALENA IN ROUND 1 +150
• 3.50/2 JACK DELLA MADDALENA INSIDE DISTANCE -175
• 4.40/4 RAONI BARCELOS KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -110

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[skanless13]

I like your format. Great job.
Interested in your thoughts on the 2 main fights. I really feel Gane rolls here. Moreno probably wins another close one?

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 270: Main Card

Michael Morales (12-0) vs Trevin Giles (14-3)
Welterweight (170)​

Giles Sub …Morales showed surprising control in the clinch against Nikolay Veretennikov but it was a snail-paced affair. Of concern is Morales’ issues on the back-foot, planting his feet and keeping his head on the center-line. Even with Giles moving down to WW, Morales didn’t show the striking defense needed to overcome Giles’ hard jab. This should be a clear cut victory with Giles’ extra size at the weight allowing him to bully Morales on the ground.

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Cody Stamann (19-4-1) vs Said Nurmagomedov (14-2)
Bantamweight (135)​

Nurmagomedov …Stamann’s main game is powerful wrestling, but he lacks the supreme control that Raoni Barcelos drew upon to beat Said Nurmangomedov. Even with Said’s potent striking, Stamann has a solid enough chin and gas tank to stall out the Russian against the cage and pick up an ugly decision win. Still, Nurmagomedov’s powerful counter striking and reach advantage should produce eye-catching work as long as he isn’t ground out.

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Michel Pereira (26-11) vs Andre Fialho (14-3)
Welterweight (170)​

Pereira KO …There are still giant defensive flaws, but Pereira’s new style is designed to survive against Fialho in the first round and open up later down the line. A huge first-round threat, Fialho can work behind his jab when it is necessary, but his core remains powerful punching off the front foot. There is always the possibility that Pereira falls into his old, bad habits, but I’m backing his powerful counters and clinch striking to stop Fialho in his debut.

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[mrpickem]

[5-4 -5.28u]

• 2/1.89 TREVIN GILES -106
• 3/9.78 TREVIN GILES KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +325
• 2/1.19 SAID NURMAGOMEDOV -168
• 3/1.14 MICHEL PEREIRA -263
• 3.64/4 MICHEL PEREIRA INSIDE DISTANCE +110

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 270: Co-Main Event
Brandon Moreno (19-5-2) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (20-2-1)
Flyweight (125)
UFC Flyweight Championship​

Moreno ITD …The first two rounds will be key for Figueiredo, who will have to make his power count. Rather than roll the dice and chin test, Moreno, Figueiredo needs to put work into the body to patch over his own failing gas tank down the stretch. Moreover, even considering the miles on Moreno’s body, it’s still far safer to back the Mexican’s durability than Figgy’s insane power. While Figgy’s wild combinations are pivotal for catching opponents unaware, this isn’t the fight for lax fundamentals. Moreno’s wrestling threat could easily deny a fresh Figueiredo his best work in the opening rounds, before pouring out an unmatchable volume in the championship rounds. A decision victory for either man is probably more certain, but I expect an ageing Figueiredo to go out on his shield.

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UFC 270: Main Event
Francis N’Gannou (16-3) vs Ciryl Gane (10-0)
Heavyweight (265)
UFC Heavyweight Championship​

N’Gannou KO …I have to temper some expectations, this is still HW, this could easily be a stinker (before a finish emerges). Gane exudes class when he can control the range and pace of a fight, yet his lack of one-shot power will likely see him on the back-foot for the majority of the fight. The Frenchman tends to slow in the championship rounds, with extended back-foot fighting, Gane could slow even earlier. Compared to the hyper-efficient, low output pressure from N’Gannou, a more stationary Gane could be punished. Wrestling is a facet that few have placed much value on, especially because of N’Gannou’s tightened TDD in his last showing. It would be foolish to ignore Gane’s skills on the mat, but the overwhelming view is that the Frenchman shouldn’t risk anything that sees him closing the distance to N’Gannou. Even when Gane sits on the outside, he still eats more shots than he needs – Alexander Volkov never looked confident against Gane yet still managed to sneak through 115 significant strikes. While Gane’s powerful kicking game could cause N’Gannou issues in the early rounds, the Cameroonian’s durability has never been challenged throughout the UFC. I’m siding with the Great Equalizer.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Celebs/comments/sa42ih

 

[mrpickem]

• 4/5.08 FRANCIS NGANNOU +127
• 3/4.50 BRANDON MORENO KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +150

 

[mrpickem]

There was a couple fun fights but overall meh. Grade C+

Definitely meh for my picks too. [8-8 -7.8u]