266

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Nice card let down a little by Diaz laze fey attitude. Should still deliver quite a night of combat

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My year is somewhat back on track after 2 positive cards in a row

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random horsey...

Prelims...
  • Morales ...Pearce is a size bully who will meet his match tonight. Owning a solid chin and an excellent eye to make reads on opponents, Morales is an efficient counter-puncher who Pearce will struggle to takedown.
  • Semelsberger KO ...A crisp volume striker, Semelsberger drowned Carlton Minus and Jason Witt in volume. Neither Minus nor Witt are stellar opponents, but Sano hasn’t fought for four years so equals pequals. With such a long time on the sidelines, it’s anyone’s guess as to what Sano represents as a fighter now, but the fighter in form has to be backed.
  • Medic KO ...This is a real barn-burner hidden in the prelims. A swarming creative striker with a lethal finishing rate, if Medic can stay on the front foot, it is difficult to see how the Southpaw doesn’t eventually find Turner’s chin. This is the first fight against an opponent with a vastly larger reach though, giving up 6″ to Turner, which could create an interesting dynamic that Medic will have to work inside. If Turner is to fight smart, he could fight behind his reach for the first round and drag Medic deep into the fight – but the aggressive striker loves to trade too much for his own good.
  • Santos Decision ...A wealth of experience, methodical striking and savvy on the mat keeps Modafferi relevant in the UFC. Coming off of a knee surgery, however, leaves questions marks over Modafferi’s already hampered physicality. Worse yet, Santos is an athletic beast who is difficult to nudge when she works her on top.
  • Daukaus ...No denying that Chris Daukaus has made a name with a string of three first-round finishes, but we are still yet able to gauge his ceiling. Fleet footwork and crisp combinations have proven far too slippery for the cumbersome masses in unranked 265lbs. Abdurakhimov is a different beast, however. A crafty, technical boxer, only inactivity and age could stop
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    this being an equal affair.
  • Hooker KO ...A variety of circumstances could influence this fight. Both fighters have been impacted by commissions, COVID-protocols and late weight cuts. Under normal circumstances, however, the Hangman should crush Haqparast. Knowing Haqparast’s slow starts, Hooker can force Haqparast into making a sloppy, early mistake before punishing the Afghan in a dogged war in the pocket. Haqparast is a striking bully who needs to have total control over pace to slowly unravel his striking layers. Hooker’s gas tank is an issue and he is coming off of a shock first-round knockout, but Haqparast hasn’t yet shown the ability to fly out the blocks and hang with Hooker early.
  • Dvalishvili Decision ...Perhaps it’s the age, or the miles on the body considering a thirty-fight career, but Moraes has fallen to the way-side. Dvalishvili is a cardio freak, consistently latching onto takedowns and forcing a brutal pace. It’s a difficult task to out-wrestle Moraes, especially early on, but this may just be a case of perfect match-making timing. If Moraes cannot land his power early to slow Dvalishvili’s pace, the Brazilian’s gas tank will falter by the third round.
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Early prelims
  • 3/2.04 OMAR MORALES -147
  • 2/1.44 JONATHAN PEARCE / OMAR MORALES o2½ -139
  • 4/2.00 MATTHEW SEMELSBERGER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -200
  • 3/2.56 UROS MEDIC -117
  • 2/2.50 UROS MEDIC KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +125

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[2-4 -6.6u]
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ESPN Prelims

  • 3/2.00 TAILA SANTOS DEC/TECH DEC -150
  • 5/2.44 CHRIS DAUKAUS -205
  • 3/2.10 DAN HOOKER -143
  • 2/3.50 DAN HOOKER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +175
  • 2/0.77 MERAB DVALISHVILI -259
  • 2/1.13 MERAB DVALISHVILI / MARLON MORAES o2½ -177
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UFC 266: Main card...

  • Andrade ...Ideally, Calvillo will fight behind her jab. Despite frustrating inconsistencies, Calvillo has at times shown her ability to use her jab to work at range and wheel laterally around the border of the octagon. Sadly, it is too easy to see Calvillo willingly allowing Andrade to out-work her on the feet. Her meat-headed aggression could see her walking straight into Calvillo’s guard, but the Brazilian’s freakish chin is a comical but vitally effective weapon for closing the distance.
  • Blaydes KO ...Rozenstruik is a powerful counter-puncher, but his takedown defence is far worse than even Derrick Lewis’ meme TDD. If an over-the-hill Alistair Overeem managed to take down Rozenstruik during the early rounds, Blaydes will find no trouble. Worse yet for Rozenstruik, a killer ground and pound artist. Hellbows are a terrifying weapon. Bigi Boy’s power is certainly there to punish Blaydes, a notorious telegrapher of entries, but his time on the feet will be limited from the outset.
  • Lawler ...This could be a front-runner for the saddest fight of the year. A strange last-minute jump up to Middleweight, a doughy physique on the scales, and worrying pre-fight interviews – there is a growing belief that Nick’s heart isn’t totally in the fight. On paper, forgetting all the mitigating circumstances, the style match-up remains unchanged. Nick’s pace and volume overwhelms Lawler’s power-striking (especially now the vet cannot pull the trigger). Still, even with Lawler throwing almost nothing of note for the past four fights, Nick 2.0 is currently an unknown entity.
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  • Shevchenko ITD ...Shevchenko’s masterful control of distance will leave Murphy stranded at range. It is incredibly unlikely that Murphy has the technical prowess to pressure Valentina to the cage, leaving a typical point fighting bout that the Champ prefers. On the outside, Shevchenko can utilize angles to hit a dreadfully slow Murphy, relatively free. There is a small glimmer of hope for Murphy, who often drags herself to victory through durability and competent pocket boxing. Jennifer Maia caused a couple issues for Shev based on her physical prowess, and Murphy’s grit could see her replicate that success, but it just isn’t likely.
  • Volkanovski Decision ...One of the best attributes a champion can have is a willingness to disregard fans and fight aesthetics. Volk has regularly shown his ability to drop his ego and fight to a steady if ugly game plan. Although their respective styles are planets away, Volk could opt for a grinding clinch approach that found him great success against Aldo. Rather than trade on the feet, even with a 2″ reach on Ortega, Volk could choose to utilize his powerful stocky base to keep Ortega pinned on the fence and draw out an ugly, unceremonious victory. That does increase the likelihood of the fight hitting the mat, however, and unnecessarily draws in the threat of Ortega’s submission chops. The main advantage Ortega will find is his chin. Volk is a powerful striker, but his style doesn’t push him towards stoppages unless he needs to match an opponent’s intensity (i.e. Chad Mendes). Ortega can utilise the full twenty-five minutes to find ‘that shot’ or ‘that submission’. T-City’s career tendency to drop every round in his career before finding the finish leaves Volk the safer fighter to back, especially when considering the Aussie’s consistency in the octagon. An excellent fight that could easily open up an immediate rematch.

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[7-6 -1.83u]
  • 4/1.23 CURTIS BLAYDES -325
  • 2/2.00 CURTIS BLAYDES KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
  • 2/1.48 NO - ROUND 3 STARTS -135

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[8-8 -4.6u]
  • 1.52/2 NICK DIAZ +132

Against better judgement I'm riding with an old favorite of mine

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[8-9 -6.6u]
  • 2.50/2 VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO ROUNDS 1,2 OR 3 -125
  • 5.50/2 VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -275

Shev may be the most dominant champion in the game and we may not yet realize what an awesome career we are witnessing. It's hard to bet her at the crazy juice, but you can still pick at it for small profits
 
[9-10 -7.1u]
  • 2/1.11 ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI -180

Not my night and I don't have high enough confidence in Volk to pound it, live to fight another day :shake:

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