Decent card at the top with some definite filler matches added, should be fun entertaining night,
Finished last week with 7 straight L's for a best quickly forgotten night. There is better soon to come...so said the Sensei :cowboy:
early fight thoughts...
Andrea Lee -115 ...In a pure Muay Thai fight, Antonina would fare much better, yet the threat of the takedown often leaves Antonina gun shy and refusing to sit into her counters. Lee can lose herself in her blistering combinations, leaving herself open to body kicks, but her relentless aggression will keep Antonina unable to commit all night. While Antonina has made huge leaps on her ground game since the Chookagian fight, Lee’s ability to mix the grappling/wrestling with her striking is far more seamless. Tough call and probably no play, but definite lean to the prettier one.
Gina Mazany -200 ...Mazany is at the lower end of the gatekeeper spectrum; just enough to keep Instagram models like Rachael Ostovich out of the UFC, but not qualified to give tough rounds to Julia Avila or Macy Chiasson. Mazany will have the opportunity to show her wrestling chops off against the very limited power punching Priscila Cachoeira. Cachoeira is as durable as they come, but no stellar skills to go with it.
Tucker Lutz -125 ...This may be the last chance for Aguilar, currently on a three-fight slide and not really entertaining, the patient striker needs to finally find the shot of his life. Lutz is a powerful kickboxer with solid wrestling chops and grinding top control, but there are gas tank issues that Aguilar can expose during the later rounds. Lutz volume and aggression should be enough to see him bank the early rounds, even with a dip in activity late...probably winning on descision.
Christos Giagos -200 ...Soriano returns after a 0-3 stint back in 2013-2014, however, Soriano has tightened up his striking. Utilising ferocious leg kicks, Soriano beats opponents out of their comfortable stance and opens them up to powerful hooks. Soriano struggles on the ground, however, an area where Giagos thrives. When using strikes as a means to close the distance and set up the takedown, Giagos’ main issue will be conditioning. Possible late Soriano finish, but a decent amount of layin and prayin should likely see Soriano through to a decision.
Soriano has been fighting in other promotions and is 6-3 overall since leaving the UFC about six years ago. He is still vulnerable to submissions, losing 4 times in career by this method. Giagos is still the more balanced fighter and looked much improved in his most recent fight. He is not a big sub guy, so I will just back him small to win here.
Aguillar has the experience but Lutz has all of the momentum having not lost since his pro debut in 2015. The majority of his fights came under the Shogun banner where he did not fight anyone of note or with a decent record, but he has the confidence. Lutz is well-round with some decent wrestling in the locker, but he will have to mix in his strikes well to land a takedown as Aguilar has some good takedown defense. Aguilar will hope this fight stays on the feet as he is a solid striker, in particular his boxing.
Probably a reach here, but not liking some recent stuff on Mazany..plus Cachoeira was competetive with Valentina for a round before getting choked in R2. Time for the bi+ch to bark.
The clear path to victory for Lee is to get her wrestling shoes on. They both have awful takedown defense, but Lee is a better wrestler and has the ability to control Shevchenko on the mat or fence for the majority of the fight. Whether Lee adopts this game plan is a different question. They are both well-versed strikers hailing from a Muay Thai background. Shevchenko will hope Lee decides to back her striking and it will create an exciting and technical contest. As Lee is staring at four losses in a row, you have to expect her to mix in grappling at least. If she can level-change in between combinations and utilize her judo to throw Shevchenko to the canvas, the fight is hers but she will have to be careful in the clinch where Shevchenko is very strong...minimal play
Edson Barboza ...JUST BLEED TIME. An absolute bloodbath in regards to stylistic clash, Burgos’ pressure and desire to scrap in a phone booth will force an exhausting pace out of Barboza. Despite making a shock move down to Featherweight, Barboza has been able to make weight decently and appears massive on fight night. The game plan on how to beat Barboza has been out for years, pushing the Brazilian against the cage and stifling his kicking game. Burgos’ insane durability and pressure ensure ample opportunity for extended striking exchanges, but his almost non-existent ring cutting means Barboza can keep a safe distance away from the cage.
Jacare Souza KO ...If Souza is to lose this, the Brazilian legend needs to retire. Muniz is a tall MW with heavy head kicks and a strong submission game off his back, but there remain so many flaws. No jab to write about, little to no positional awareness in the octagon, and too inactive when held against the cage, this should be easy pickings for Souza. On a three-fight slide, with questions raised about his durability after the Holland TKO from top position, this fight is less easy to predict. Yet Souza was able to grind out a solid performance in the horrendously boring decision loss against the hard hitting LHW champion, Jan Blachowicz. Threatening with short combinations, as well as pockets of success against the fence and in the clinch indicate there is still life in this old dog.
Mike Grundy ...By moving down in weight, Vannata may finally be able to showcase his wrestling rather than solely his enjoyable counter-striking. His low hands and light feet will cause Grundy a world of trouble on the feet, but the Englishman will instead be gunning to grind out Vannata on the mat from the opening bell. Grundy’s issue remains his gas tank, flagging up hard during the later rounds, and a late Vannata stoppage is a likely outcome. Still, Mike’s underrated power and dirty boxing should be enough to capture the early scorecards and ultimately the W.
Jamie Pickett KO ...Wright is an explosive striker on the outside with ridiculous power, he is far too easily bullied against the fence. With his back against the cage, Wright can land cutting knees and elbows (as seen against Ike Villanueva) but having never gone to a decision, we are left unaware of whether he can survive during the later rounds. Pickett is a limited fighter, but he picks his counter strikes well and threatens with takedowns/clinches when he finds himself in dangerous positions. After surviving the early barrage against Tafon Nchukwi, Pickett should be able to do the same again and drag Wright into deep waters and potentially a late finish.
Muniz has a bright future, but stylistically, this is a good match-up for Jacare who has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the sport, better wrestling, better stand-up and as all Muniz’s losses have come via knockout, I could se a 5th tonight
...a mouth-watering match-up and the perfect way to kick off the main card as we can expect a violent battle on the feet. Barboza will bring his standard explosive self with the slickest and most dangerous kicking game in the division and Burgos will bring his incredibly tough, forward pressure and technical boxing. It is going to create one hell of a scrap and they match up identically physically. Barboza has the power advantage but Burgos’ endurance and durability will keep him in the fight until the bell. Barboza’s technique, speed and power should enable him to have more of an efficient output and land more damaging blows. If his weight cut goes smoothly, he may have the explosiveness to land the knockout, but Burgos’ is expected to eat whatever is served up but falling short in a decision.
Charles Oliveira likely sub ...Regardless of whether either man truly deserves a shot at the vacant title, this stylistic match-up is absolutely filthy. Two outcomes seem most obvious; Chandler finishes this early as a result of his massive power differential, aggressive cage cutting and Oliveira’s leaky striking defence or Oliveira’s aggressive kicking game keeps Chandler outside boxing range, wears on Chandler’s suspect gas tank, forces unfavourable wrestling exchanges which eventually sees Oliveira snap a submission. Yes, Chandler has successfully seen the final of the championship rounds several times, but he noticeably fatigues. Since moving up from Featherweight, Oliveira seems to have ironed out his conditioning issues. Moreover, Chandler struggled to deal with Hooker’s leg work during his debut, a weapon that Oliveira has honed over the past couple of years. While Chandler’s sweltering top control has not yet been showcased in the UFC, it could be Oliveira’s kryptonite if he is forced against the cage. Off his back in the center of the octagon, Oliveira has the space to work his magic – utilising the threat of the armbar to gain a superior position rather than secure a submission although Tony Ferguson would say differently...lol
Tony Ferguson ...It is still so difficult to estimate just how far Ferguson has regressed, and to guess whether Ferguson will change his style/approach after a brutal two-fight slide? Ferguson’s unrelenting pressure may have been countered by Gaethje’s power differential, yet there was no excuse against Oliveira as Ferguson offered little off his back while being rag-dolled. Still, Dariush is a flawed fighter with enough holes in his game that even a hollow Ferguson may be able to conquer. Dariush is a powerful wrestler who since suffering a wobble over 2016-2018 has regained his identity as an aggressive, heavy-handed striker who fluidly mixes in pressure wrestler. Lingering in the pocket and dropping his hands after firing combinations, however, plays directly into Ferguson’s high-risk high-volume arsenal. If Ferguson approaches this fight in a similar vein to the Oliveira fight, however, he will be ground out against the cage, rather than the mat. I'm betting it don't go that way.
Matt Schnell ...Despite the incredibly rocky start to his UFC career, Schnell has battled back to a 5-1 rise which has showcased tightened boxing and less blind takedown attempts. While Schnell’s chin will always raise questions, his slick stick-and-move boxing vs Tyson Nam last time out highlighted the maturity of Schnell’s game. Although heavy-handed, Bontorin bites hard on feints and suffers against fighters who pick their shots on the outside. Moreover, while Bontorin is a beast on the mat and a huge submission threat, his risk-taking allows opponents ample opportunity to escape back to the feet.
Katlyn Chookagian ...With Araujo’s preference in the UFC to keep fights on the feet coupling with Chookagian’s solid TDD, expect a patient kickboxing battle where Chookagian’s length proves key. Araujo is the superior athlete, able to chip away with her jab and time excellent shots. Chookagian utilizes her reach advantage to its full extent, as seen vs Cynthia Calvillo where a variety of counter straights and front kicks kept her at a comfortable distance. Chook’s deep gas tank and higher volume will likely get her through a low-risk affair.
Now we can see where Tony really is now...I do believe their durability will drag this into the third round where Ferguson will be in his element with his unwavering cardio and he I see him reminding everyone he is still a dog with a late knockout...that is IF he still has IT in him.
early fight thoughts...
