26-5-1 through 6 weeks....

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
NFL teams have that SU record so far this season when they have a 100 yard rusher.

Two of those 5 losses involved Saquon who had runs of over 50+ in each of those games.

I bring this up because it seems the tendency now is for teams to totally abandon the run when they get down. Obviously we have seen it from Jacksonville two weeks running and to a lesser extreme the Cardinals tonight. Each of those cases has their own interesting element...

1. Tonight, Arizona has a young QB that is just starting his career. The score is 35-3 at halftime. I am one that always says that you need to play to win till the final bell but there is no reason for him to be throwing nearly 40 passes.

2. In the Jacksonville games, they basically started to throw the white flag up on running the ball in the first half. Here is the problem... your QB is Blake Bortles. He isn't good enough to be throwing 80-90 percent of the time.

It just doesn't make sense. Now, I get that offenses are evolving and this season more than ever is a new era of football...

But, simple concepts still rules out.

You run, you win.

So what can we learn?

-Which coaches will start to panic earlier?

-Which players (for prop betting and fantasy purposes) are most affected by their coaches?

-How can we incorporate this into Live and Halftime betting?


Anyways, discuss...
 
Don‘t bet the over again on Yeldon rush yards. Fucking moron coaches
Oh, that was a one time lesson but that is what got me thinking about things a bit more.

Easy one of the worst prop bet beats I have ever had. No doubt about it.

But, more in general... for instance... Dallas was a great live play of HT bet the other day and I didn't think about that. That is the kind of stuff I want to think through when it comes to this.
 
Chiefs games are a great example of this. We can't stop anyone on the ground but teams go down 7 or 14 and are scared to keep pounding it. Denver got away from the run against us even when they had the lead. I think a lot of play callers just cant resist the urge to throw it.

Cincy should run Mixon 30 times on Sunday
 
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