259

[mrpickem]

UFC 259 - UFC Apex - Las Vegas, Nevada, USA - PPV

Solid card with 4 champions fighting with 3 belts on the line. Two of the belts have very good chance of changing hands. Not to mention 2 other former champs as well as Khabib's protefe. Will make for a great night of fights...but the key is to make some green! I like a lot of dogs tonight but problem is dogs have been barking a lot so far in 2021 and it may be a night for the favorites to rule. I know I will be on Aljo, Dom Cruz, Jan and at least one other dog...but still contemplating the rest

---MY 2021 UFC CARDS SO FAR

FEB 27 6-9 -3.59u
FEB 20 12-11 +7.74u
FEB 13 7-5 +1.52u
FEB 06 11-11 +2u
JAN 16 4-15 -30.88u
JAN 20 15-14 +15.52u
JAN 23 10-13 -2.9u
----------------------
TOTAL-- 65-78 -10.59u

 

[mrpickem]

Played one yesterday and I still love it.

• 1205 Sterling wins inside distance +275
  4/11

random shitz...

• Aljamain Sterling +112 ...This is one of the fights I’m looking forward to the most. Initially I was all over Aljo, but after digging more into Yan’s fights I’m a little less confident, but I do still like Aljo’s chances.
  • Yan’s got elite striking. He’s so good at pressuring opponents, setting traps and finding/creating openings to snipe at. He also has great footwork and takedown defense. He’s also got a very strong clinch game. Most impressive though is his ability to enact his gameplan. Yan is relentless when it comes to backing his opponents against the cage and unloading on them. This coupled with his durability makes him a nightmare for opponents. He’s willing to eat some shots to walk you down, and his poker face is something else. I imagine fighters get a little shaken when Yan eats their best shots and continues to move forward unfazed while countering with his own devastating shots. I don’t think Yan has 1 punch knockout power, his damage accumulates quickly. You really can’t eat too many clean shots from him before he gets you out of there.
  • Aljo isn’t as technically sound on the feet as Yan, but I don’t think it’ll be a complete mismatch. Aljo’s got very unorthodox movement, and I think that’ll make it more difficult for Yan to get his timing and reads down. Aljo also has great head movement, which can be a bit of a double edged sword . It’s good in that it’ll make him hard to hit and can throw off the rhythm of Yan. However it can be dangerous in that he can walk himself right into a knee or head kick and get knocked out. It’s high risk high reward in that he can mitigate a lot of Yan’s tools but does expose himself to a devastating KO. The footwork of Aljo will give Yan some troubles too. A lot of fighter’s Yan’s gone against are quite linear. Aljo will be giving a lot of looks to Yan that he isn’t used to seeing. I do think for Aljo to have success he will need to go to his kicking game. He’s got a pretty significant leg reach advantage. He’ll have to work the teep/front body kick and chop at the legs of Yan. He’ll need to do that effectively to stifle some of the pressure of Yan. He’ll need to do it consistently no matter how unfazed Yan looks. Most importantly, he can’t let Yan just walk him down. He needs to stand his ground and bring his own pressure. This may be an unpopular opinion but I can see Aljo keeping it close on the feet for at least 2 rounds as Yan is a bit if a slow starter. However as the fight progresses I start to favor Yan pretty heavily as he will start to get his timing and reads on Aljo’s tendencies down. Aljo will need to take the fight to the ground to win. Whether it’s to get the sub or to secure some control time. Yan’s too dangerous on the feet for Aljo to want to strike with him for 5 rounds. Aljo’s got very slick BJJ and his back takes are superb. He’s very crafty on the ground as well. Yan will be in a lot of trouble if Aljo is able to take him down. Aljo’s takedown numbers don’t look great l, but I think it’s partly because he bails on a number of attempts. I think Yan will stuff a few takedowns early but Aljo is good at chaining takedowns and can be pretty unrelenting with his grappling. People will bring up the Magomed fight for Yan as a counterpoint for Sterlings wrestling, but I feel that’s not a great comparison. It’s like saying Aljo should piece Yan up on the feet since he was able to dominate Rivera standing and Rivera was touching up Yan. That aside I feel the grappling of Aljo is more dangerous. And I also feel that Aljo has way more to offer on the feet than Magomed, so Yan won’t be able to sell out as hard defending the takedowns of Aljo. So overall, I’d say Aljo can keep it competitive on the feet and use his striking to set up his grappling. I lean Aljo if it goes to a decision and I give him the submission upside whereas for Yan I think his most likely path to victory is a KO. This is a great matchup but I see some value here as I think Aljo should be the slight favorite and at +275 ITD I love that value.
• 
  Dominick Cruz +115 ...Somewhat strange spot what with money is coming in on Kenney. Cruz is considered by almost everyone as the best ever at this weightclass. His career has been marked by awful injuries that have kept him out for long periods of time and have made it hard for him to build consistent streaks since his early prime. Kenney is an up and comer who’s won 5 of his L6. You’d think picking the young up and comer vs the old injury prone great is the obvious pick but stylistically this is a tough spot for Kenney for one simple reason, Dominick's wrestling! This is a guy that finished Takeya Mizugaki via ground and pound and wrestlefucked the likes of Demetrious Johnson, Joseph Benavidez and even got Dillashaw down 4 times. Lots of people have forgotten about this skill of his since he’s fought a god tier scrambler with 100% takedown defense in Cody Garbrandt and an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling in Henry Cejudo. If this was a kickboxing match Kenney would destroy Cruz but he’s a guy who got taken down 7 times by Ray Borg and 12 times by Merab Dvalashvili. These two have no where near the control of Cruz on the ground. Another thing is the pace of Cruz, in the Cejudo fight he barely even looked winded before getting finished and he was fighting at a 5 round pace. He will turn it up much more tonight, while Kenney is someone that struggled with the pace of Nathaniel Wood and Merab Dvalashvili. Gonna be some worry with the injuries, lack of Octagon time and the low kicks of Kenney but you’re getting an underdog price vs a guy with question marks facing a bad matchup.
• Amanda Nunes KO +110 ...plus odds for one of the heaviest handed women to ever grace the octagon seems like a gimme. Not much else I can say about this pick.
• Jan Blachowicz +220 ...The value on this pick is my only real rationale. Jan has a BJJ background and is a true LHW. Jan needs to ensure he does not get lulled into fighting Israel’s fight. Israel has great takedown defence (86%) but if Jan gets his hands on him Israel will be in a lot of trouble. I’m backing polish power in the main.

 

[mrpickem]

​	Fight #1...early odd start time at 5:15pm EST​
	2401 Trevin Jones +210 vs Mario Bautista .5/1.05 2401 Trevin Jones/Mario Bautista Over 2½ -162 1.09/.67

 

[mrpickem]

​	[1-1 -0.04u]
	2302 Uros Medic -178 vs Aalon Cruz 2.05/1.15

 

[mrpickem]

​	[2-1 +1.11u]​
	2242 Lemos points handicap -3½ +135 vs Souza points handicap any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter 1/1.35 2202 Amanda Lemos -200 vs Livinha Souza 1/.5

 

[Big daddy naught]

Agree 100 on Sterling, Nunes and Cruz

 

[mrpickem]

​	[4-1 +2.96u]
	2101 Jake Matthews +190 vs Sean Brady .8/1.52

 

[Big daddy naught]

​	[4-1 +2.96u]
	2101 Jake Matthews +190 vs Sean Brady .8/1.52

Mandy rose??

 

[mrpickem]

Mandy rose??

yup

 

[Big daddy naught]

yup

My girl. Westchester’s finest

 

[mrpickem]

​	[4-2 +2.16u]​
	2033 Ulberg wins by TKO/KO +150 .66 /.99

 

[mrpickem]

​	[4-3 +1.5u]​
	1931 Elliott wins by submission +317 .5/1.59 1902 Tim Elliott -135 vs Jordan Espinosa 1.08/.8

 

[mrpickem]

​	[5-4 +1.8u]​
	1803 Kara-France / Bontorin goes 3 round distance -175 1.4/.8 1807 Kara-France wins by 3 round decision +140 .8/1.12 801 Kai Kara-France -127 vs Rogerio Bontorin 1.74/1.37 1801 Kai Kara-France/Rogerio Bontorin* Over 2½ -207 1.45 /.7

 

[mrpickem]

​	[6-7 -0.48u]
	1742 Askarov points handicap -3½ +185 vs Benavidez points handicap any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter 1/1.85 1702 Askar Askarov -132 vs Joseph Benavidez 3.96/3

 

[mrpickem]

​	[8-7 +4.37u]​
	1642 Song points handicap -3½ +130 vs Phillips points handicap any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter 2/2.6 1602 Yadong Song -172 vs Kyler Phillips 2.58/1.5

 

[mrpickem]

​	[8-9 -0.21u]
	1502 Dominick Cruz +105 vs Casey Kenney 4/4.2

 

[mrpickem]

[9-9 +3.99u]

Not sure why, but both my books remove the next fight early :slappedinface:

I was gonna take Rakic ITD but whatever

 

[DBURGH]

ITD?

 

[mrpickem]

1409 Rakic wins inside distance +175
1.4/2.45

They put it back up.

ITD = Inside The Distance

 

[DBURGH]

Thanks, learning, new to the sport. Always was a boxing fan, now I get every pay per view so I am loving this late night wagering

 

[mrpickem]

​	[9-10 +2.59u]​
	1309 Makhachev wins inside distance +168 vs Not Makhachev inside distance 1/1.68 1321 Makhachev wins in round 1 +350 vs Any other result .6/2.1 1302 Islam Makhachev -400 vs Drew Dober 2/.5

 

[mrpickem]

​	[11-11 +4.17u]​
	1205 Sterling wins inside distance +350 2/7 1201 Aljamain Sterling +107 vs Petr Yan 5/5.35

Also have this I bet yesterday. very surprised this linehas pushed out

• 1205 Sterling wins inside distance +275
  4/11

 

[mrpickem]

​	[14-11 +27.52u]​
	1141 Nunes wins by TKO/KO +120 1.25/1.5 1001 Jan Blachowicz +240 vs Israel Adesanya 1.75/4.2

Wow, never won my big play like that but wtf...I'll take it :clapping2: