'23-24 Season Tracker
- Thread starter peelpub94
- Start date
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
Good luck pub.
Get that lip lettuce growing for Movember.
Get that lip lettuce growing for Movember.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Been rockin a solid stache since the summer, no plans on stopping now!
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
FWIW- I am not making actual plays here, just tracking. Still trying to size up what it is that Moneypuck and Vegas are getting into now together. The fact that MP projections can swing around 5% over night, to virtually line right up with Vegas Moneylines has been concerning to me. So I'm trying to track the lines with the most egregious movements.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Thoughts and perspectives on the above plays:
There are 2 plays tonight that had a 7% edge against the opening lines yesterday afternoon. Buffalo -115 which has dropped to -110 in most places, and Dallas -130 which hasn't moved on Fanduel, but other books have it -135 or higher.
From a pure feel for the game perspective, I like both teams at these prices in these situations regardless of a +EV edge. Six Sabres skaters enter tonight's contest with a point streak of three or more games. No other NHL team has more than four active players with a point streak of at least three games. Guys like Tage Thompson are ready to explode and could see it against some of the slower Flyers D-men. Hart is the wild card that could steal it.
The only other team to start the season worse than Calgary is San Jose. They're at home but Dallas isn't the kind of team you feel good about facing in a get-right game. Maybe this goes to OT? I think this is also where the Stars' secondary guys like Marchment and Duchene get going as well. They've been a little unlucky as shown in their xG. Oettinger has given up 10 goals in 2 starts against Calgary, but these are different teams and times.
There are 2 plays tonight that had a 7% edge against the opening lines yesterday afternoon. Buffalo -115 which has dropped to -110 in most places, and Dallas -130 which hasn't moved on Fanduel, but other books have it -135 or higher.
From a pure feel for the game perspective, I like both teams at these prices in these situations regardless of a +EV edge. Six Sabres skaters enter tonight's contest with a point streak of three or more games. No other NHL team has more than four active players with a point streak of at least three games. Guys like Tage Thompson are ready to explode and could see it against some of the slower Flyers D-men. Hart is the wild card that could steal it.
The only other team to start the season worse than Calgary is San Jose. They're at home but Dallas isn't the kind of team you feel good about facing in a get-right game. Maybe this goes to OT? I think this is also where the Stars' secondary guys like Marchment and Duchene get going as well. They've been a little unlucky as shown in their xG. Oettinger has given up 10 goals in 2 starts against Calgary, but these are different teams and times.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
A friend of mine's response:
So let's test this theory: I am playing a $10 Free Bet (+504) Parlay built as this:
Tage has put up the following SOG over those same 5 games (in reverse order, also): 1, 1, 3 (2G), 0, 0
Despite the low-ish SOG totals for Tage, he is averaging 4 SOG/GM over the season, so I like your hunch that he's due for a night. The only thing stopping me from taking him at 4+ SOG is the fact that the Flyers are 4th in the NHL this season in SA/GP, with 28.0. I didn't want to take him for a PPP, the Sabres are getting caved in with a man-up lol.
My logic for Dallas has followed suit, here are some counting stats over the last 5 games (in reverse order): 33 (W), 32 (L), 34 (W), 25 (W), 24 (W)
Duchene has done pretty average, though (in reverse order): 1 (1G), 1, 1, 0, 0
Despite that, he's averaging 2.29 SOG, and Calgary gives up 10th most in the league at 29.2, which might as well be the mean. I would think he'd be inclined to shoot, Markstrom is sporting a .901 SV% and Calgary is the 5th worst team in GA/G at 3.67. I'd imagine he gets most of his minutes against Gilbert / Zadorov (and some Hanifin / Tanev), since Weegar / Andersson will be getting the bulk of dealing with Robertson / Hintz / Pavelski.
So let's test this theory: I am playing a $10 Free Bet (+504) Parlay built as this:
- Buffalo Sabres ML
- Tage Thompson 3+ SOG
- Dallas Stars ML
- Matt Duchene 2+ SOG
Tage has put up the following SOG over those same 5 games (in reverse order, also): 1, 1, 3 (2G), 0, 0
Despite the low-ish SOG totals for Tage, he is averaging 4 SOG/GM over the season, so I like your hunch that he's due for a night. The only thing stopping me from taking him at 4+ SOG is the fact that the Flyers are 4th in the NHL this season in SA/GP, with 28.0. I didn't want to take him for a PPP, the Sabres are getting caved in with a man-up lol.
My logic for Dallas has followed suit, here are some counting stats over the last 5 games (in reverse order): 33 (W), 32 (L), 34 (W), 25 (W), 24 (W)
Duchene has done pretty average, though (in reverse order): 1 (1G), 1, 1, 0, 0
Despite that, he's averaging 2.29 SOG, and Calgary gives up 10th most in the league at 29.2, which might as well be the mean. I would think he'd be inclined to shoot, Markstrom is sporting a .901 SV% and Calgary is the 5th worst team in GA/G at 3.67. I'd imagine he gets most of his minutes against Gilbert / Zadorov (and some Hanifin / Tanev), since Weegar / Andersson will be getting the bulk of dealing with Robertson / Hintz / Pavelski.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Nailed both
Flames are such a mess this year, could get ugly with the fans soon, huberdeau wasnt even on the ice at the end of the game and he has 7 more years
