21/22 Hockey

guaranteeed

Pretty much a regular
Wednesday night cant wait

Saw this when I was looking at some early season projections, has a list of a bunch of analytics projections for each team this season. The sports betting column is the pinny lines.

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First thing that sticks out like a sore thumb is the kraken

A lot of these people are super high on them, the athletic has them as the 6th best team in the league

I dont see it, they essentially have three 2nd lines, and 6 defenseman who are top 4 guys but not 1,2, or 3 guys. I think those two things play well in the fancy stats, but everyone they have is basically moving up a level. Their 1st line has no one who has ever been on one, same with their top pair on defense. So their level of competition and their time on ice both go up, and they should have weaker results.

One thing I do think they will be is an under team, no one left any good offensive d men available in the expansion draft, so they are all shutdown d men, and similar types up front. Plus two good goalies in grubauer and dreidger

That being said, is something to keep an eye on, if they do start well, there may be something to it other than luck
 
Biggest projected jumps or falls from last year

Arizona. Expected, they are tanking hard for wright or lambet, and for bedard or michkov the year after

Florida/boston - of the two there is potential for a step back. Florida without dreidger who stabilized a lot in net last year, Boston's core is older.

Buffalo isnt a big fall, but I'd be surprised if they crossed 60. Eichel still hasnt even had surgery, be shocked if he ever plays for them again, and in season trade is so hard with his salary.

Caps/pens - similar to boston with age, penguins are missing Malkin until december at the earliest I believe as well

Rangers - higher, I dont like trading Buch, but kakko looks so much better in pre season. Usually with power forwards it just clicks after a few years and the difference is night and day, happened in past with iginla, bertuzzi, shanahan etc. Laf should be much better too. Now that hes has a proper offseason, his underlying numbers were much better than what his counting stats showed.

Chicago. Definitely improved, flower in net should be a big upgrade even if hes not as good as last year. Defense is improved a ton. Losing keith is addition by subtraction. Jones and McCabe are both arguably top pairing guys. Up front the center depth is way up, dach is healthy, toews is back, and tyler johnson will be an overqualified 3rd line center, hes overpaid yes, but he was still a good player.

Vancouver. Should be much improved, up front they have one of the best top 6 and 3rd lines in the league. Adding garland, podkolzin coming over from russia, and dickenson gives them basically an extra 1st, 2nd, and 3rd liner they lacked. Defense technically improved with OEL, who came over with garland from zona, and rathbone who had some gaudy numbers at Harvard before turning pro last year. Issue is the right side might be really bad, Myers is probably a 2nd pairing guy paid like a 1st, and after him the rest of the right side looks like guys who are 6-7 at best on a good depth chart. Demko is really strong, but hes gonna be on an island a lot. They will be entertaining for sure, should have tons of goals both ways.

LA/SJ. Both show a jump from last year, I think most of that is just due to how hard their division was last year, its gonna be an easier schedule just by playing every team, and not Colorado or vegas half the time. But both still a ways away. Kane is probably an addition by subtraction ( for now at least) but they dont have a lot ot talent. LA are loaded with prospects, but still a bit away from competing, byfield injury really hurts them, he would have been my rookie of the year pick
 
Wednesday night cant wait

Saw this when I was looking at some early season projections, has a list of a bunch of analytics projections for each team this season. The sports betting column is the pinny lines.

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Some of these point totals I can’t take seriously
 
Vancouver played their worst game of season, even when they were up 2-1 they were outplayed, buffalo has played better than expected in their games, dont see it wa sustainable

For Wednesday

Vegas -125
 
Seattle -140

First ever home game, atmosphere gonna be incredible, with border still closed the amount of canucks fans should be limited

Winnipeg -135
Toronto -165
Philly +125
 
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